What do you think Atlanta's population will peak at? (Decatur: condos, how much)

[FTLkid754]

Currently intown Atlanta is the biggest population wise it has even been in history. How long do you think the city of Atlanta (not metro) can keep up its growth and what will its population peak at? 650,000? 800,000? 1 million?

[Sweet Atlanta Peach]

As horrible as the job market is getting here, it will be interesting to see.

[RangerDuke08]

Can't tell really, Atlanta has had an interesting growth trend in recent years with not only the suburbs continously growing but the city itself is starting to grow, following suit to that of many other cities in what some call "gentrification". The City today is about a good 500,000 although the Metro is about 5 million. If the Metro is projected to increase in 2025 to 6 million I probably say 650,000 in 2025 is an ideal figure for the city. I wouldn't trust any figures past 2025 as growth depends on many factors, one of which is infrastructure, it's not how much a city can grow but more of how much a city can attract growth and handle it, that's up to who the urban planners are and their views, we'll just have to wait and see.

[FTLkid754]

If I had to guess I'd say around 675,000. I can't really see Atlanta growing to be as big as 900,000 or 1 million people.

[BornInFL]

I say as long as it stays like it is (doesnt turn into another Miami-Dade where nobody speaks English and people are unfriendly), it will continue to grow, but hopefully not too rapidly.

[Iconographer]

Originally Posted by FTLkid754

If I had to guess I'd say around 675,000. I can't really see Atlanta growing to be as big as 900,000 or 1 million people.

I'd call that an educated guess. Atlanta is a relatively small city in terms of land area; although it continues to grow denser, there are limits. For one thing, there are many SFH neighborhoods that are of historical importance (Buckhead, Morningside, Virginia-Highland, Ansley Park, Inman Park, Grant Park, West End, and so on); therefore, it's very unlikely that they will ever densify. There is potential for increased density on the industrial West Side and the South Side; however, IMO it will be some time before this takes place. But given the very long view (which none of us will live to see), Atlanta could hit the seven figure mark...after all, most of the city's land area is south of downtown, not north.

[BringBackCobain]

It will also be interesting to see if the growth the city is seeing intesifies or stays stable as the years pass. The metro region is predicted to be the 6th largest metro in 2030, so if the city keeps catching a larger percentage of the growth then it could be huge. This is an interesting file compiled by the ARC on the subject:

http://www.atlantada.com/media/Aconv...growth_002.pdf

They are already outdated though because they have the 2010 population at 450,000. They say if the city captures 20% of the metros growth, it could be 850,000 by 2030.

[DeaconJ]

Originally Posted by LovinDecatur

I'd call that an educated guess. Atlanta is a relatively small city in terms of land area; although it continues to grow denser, there are limits. For one thing, there are many SFH neighborhoods that are of historical importance (Buckhead, Morningside, Virginia-Highland, Ansley Park, Inman Park, Grant Park, West End, and so on); therefore, it's very unlikely that they will ever densify. There is potential for increased density on the industrial West Side and the South Side; however, IMO it will be some time before this takes place. But given the very long view (which none of us will live to see), Atlanta could hit the seven figure mark...after all, most of the city's land area is south of downtown, not north.

There is actually A LOT of land to be developed in the city...and lots of neglected areas that are ripe for gentrification. Most of the upper and middle class intown neighborhoods are already fairly dense, so those won't change a lot...but Atlanta could be developed constantly for a few years without being completely built out - there is plenty of space for a couple of million people.

[J2rescue]

Originally Posted by LovinDecatur

I'd call that an educated guess. Atlanta is a relatively small city in terms of land area; although it continues to grow denser, there are limits. For one thing, there are many SFH neighborhoods that are of historical importance (Buckhead, Morningside, Virginia-Highland, Ansley Park, Inman Park, Grant Park, West End, and so on); therefore, it's very unlikely that they will ever densify. There is potential for increased density on the industrial West Side and the South Side; however, IMO it will be some time before this takes place. But given the very long view (which none of us will live to see), Atlanta could hit the seven figure mark...after all, most of the city's land area is south of downtown, not north.

I agree. I mentioned in a another thread that Philly has a very similar land area as Atlanta and currently has a population of 1.5 million after peaking at 2 million. Atlanta won't develop with that kind of "old school" density but with the amount of undeveloped land in this city, I think a million is still easily doable.

I was reading a Beltline document recently that projects a population of 750,000 by 2030.

[MantaRay]

I personally believe more in the 800k range. Atlanta is so populated already that downtown construction is building upward, ie. condos, for example in Atlantic Station. Every scrap of land surrounding the downtown area is being built with high density housing (Glenwood Park, for example in the Grant Park area). Atlanta leaders have been willing to let growth go unchecked for the sake of city status. I don't think that will change anytime soon.

Also I've read that as the baby boomers retire, we will see a huge shift in housing. Specifically, since downtown living has become trendy again, the expectation is that retiring boomers will downsize from the big suburban homes and opt for downtown condos for proximity to amenities and also availability of transportation. Expect Atlanta to follow that trend as well.

Atlanta is excited to be headed toward mention in the same breath as NYC, LA, and CHI. So I say all things are poised for at least 800k in the city proper. City leaders want it for status, developers want it for making money, the young and trendy movement is already pushing it, and the coming housing shift when the boomers retire will call for more of it.