Economist: Local unemployment to start falling dramatically in second quarter of 2010 (Atlanta: unemployment rate, university)

[noah]

Economist: Local unemployment to start falling dramatically in second quarter of 2010 | The Biz Beat


At the university’s annual economic forecasting breakfast, Smith predicted that metro Atlanta’s unemployment rate would drop to 9.2 percent in the second quarter, from 10.4 percent in the first quarter.


By the fourth quarter of next year, Smith said metro Atlanta’s unemployment rate would retreat to 6.5 percent. That would be an enormous decline from the current rate of 10.5 percent.

[bayarea-girl]

I hope so!!!!!!!!!!!

[wxjay]

Would have been nice to have a reason behind this prediction.

[Indentured Servant]

Originally Posted by noah

Economist: Local unemployment to start falling dramatically in second quarter of 2010 | The Biz Beat


At the university’s annual economic forecasting breakfast, Smith predicted that metro Atlanta’s unemployment rate would drop to 9.2 percent in the second quarter, from 10.4 percent in the first quarter.


By the fourth quarter of next year, Smith said metro Atlanta’s unemployment rate would retreat to 6.5 percent. That would be an enormous decline from the current rate of 10.5 percent.

[noah]

Most indicators are pointing toward an improvement in 2010. I think the suprise in this particular forecast is such a vast improvement to 6% unemployment. I don't think many people will be surprised if it goes down to 9% next year.

Originally Posted by wxjay

Would have been nice to have a reason behind this prediction.

[Indentured Servant]

If I were you I would ignore the unemployment rate and focus on whether there will be a NET GAIN OR LOSS IN EMPLOYMENT. I imagine the unemployment rate in ATL is influenced quite a bit by population growth. Adding people faster than you add jobs, which I am sure is currently the case in Georgia, inflates the unemployment rate. However, if population growth slows significantly, it can reduce the unemployment rate quite a bit, without there being a net increase in jobs during the same period. Furthermore, the unemployment rate is heavily influenced by the rate of discouraged workers and people working part time ONLY because they cannot find full time employment. Thus, to summarize, the unemployment rate can indeed get better without the underlying economy getting better. Focus on NET JOB GAINS OR LOSSES and not the deceptive unemployment rate.