‘Robust’ growth predicted for Augusta area (Atlanta, Savannah: job market, construction)

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Recent talk of area economic activity often centers around cybersecurity — both its rising presence at Fort Gordon and Augusta University, and its peripheral effect on the labor market and the business climate.

But in moving beyond his actual data, Dr. Simon Medcalfe said that visible construction activity can be a good informal measure of the Augusta-Aiken region’s economic health.

Medcalfe tracks local economic performance through a composite of statistical indicators called the Augusta Leading Economic Index. He used it in 2016 to predict that Augusta’s overall job market would be flat in 2017.

His prediction played out accurately for the first part of this year, but employment spiked in June. On paper, the numbers haven’t yielded an explanation.

“I don’t know why the Leading Economic Index is no longer a good predictor of what’s actually happening in the local economy,” Medcalfe told attendees at the Economic Forecast Breakfast at AU’s Jaguar Student Activities Center. He’s tried introducing new indicators, but it’s been difficult to find monthly data.

“So my conclusion is that it must be something that’s intangible that’s related to the local area that’s not in the data, not something I can pull and say ‘This is what’s causing the change,’” Medcalfe said.

That’s where cranes come in. Analysts sometimes point to the frequency of cranes in an urban landscape to help gauge economic activity. The global construction research firm RLB even maintains a “Crane Index” to measure the phenomenon in certain North American cities.

On a recent bicycle ride through downtown, Medcalfe said he was struck by the number of cranes he saw jutting above the city’s skyline, and across the Savannah River at the Riverside Village development, anchored by the Augusta GreenJackets’ new baseball stadium, SRP Park.

“I don’t remember a time when we’ve had six cranes all in a concentrated downtown area,” he said. “And I think that’s a good indicator of other activity that’s going on, in terms of construction now but also activity that’s coming in the future.”

In 2016 Medcalfe introduced a Labor Market Index into his forecasting that he can apply not only to Augusta but to other Georgia cities for comparison. It tracks employment, number of hours worked and income, among other factors.

By that index, Augusta is the fourth-fastest-growing city in the state – behind Athens, Atlanta and Hinesville, and just ahead of Savannah and Gainesville.

‘Robust’ growth predicted for Augusta area | The Augusta Chronicle