Real Estate in Austin vs.......California

[achtungpv]

Originally Posted by Jazzedforhim

Yeah, that mortgate crisis is killing us here in California. Our neighbor just reduced the price of their home $10,000. We are probably going to have to lower ours too.

A $10K drop is only going to save a buyer around $60 a month on their mortgage payment. I would think informed buyers looking at houses that would cost them a $3K+ monthly payment still won't look at a house with that price reduction. If you really have to sell during a downturn, I would think it'd pay off to be a bit more aggressive with pricing your home and sell sooner than try and hold out for a top dollar price that isn't going to come cause you'll just end up chasing the market to the bottom.

[Torontonian]

Originally Posted by austin-steve

The mortgage industry is in full blown meltdown. This might affect our market somewhat (dampen, but not hurt it in my opinion), but job growth is doing very well. It's job growth that drives a real estate market more than any other factor.
Steve

Austin-steve, where can I read your Austin real-estate market forecast back in year 2001-2002 ?

PS. It could be just a coincidence but my observation is a lot of older people are cashing in on their houses at present

[austin-steve]

Austin-steve, where can I read your Austin real-estate market forecast back in year 2001-2002 ?

The implication being that, in your opinion, Realtors remain optimistic and wear rose colored glasses right up to and through market downturns, and therefore optimistic Realtor opinions are not to be trusted?

I didn't track the market back then the way we do today. Didn't write a blog back then, nor participate in forums in which this sort of information was shared.

Do you have a different opinion about what the Austin real estate and job markets will be doing in the coming years? I'm open to hearing other points of view. Mine happens to be positive at present, based on many different factors.

Steve

[Torontonian]

Originally Posted by austin-steve

Do you have a different opinion about what the Austin real estate and job markets will be doing in the coming years? I'm open to hearing other points of view. Mine happens to be positive at present, based on many different factors.

Steve

Steve,

Just a fear of insanity of the past few years. 30+% price appreciation since year 2005 (conservative number IMHO) is way above of the normal appreciation rate.

You already mentioned of the credit tightening. You haven't mentioned of the increasing mortgage rates though which will affect the buying power.

Number of out-of-state or second-home investors also scares me.

Number of people who become real-estate agents, mortgage brokers, etc in the past 2 years - clear sign of the speculation.

What about the inventory - it is close to the record level based on my research.

I'm not that optimistic about the Austin job market as well, at least in the high-tech area. I saw quite a few resumes in the past month of those affected by layoffs at AMD, Dell, Freescale.

I might be wrong but that is my personal view. Year 2002 is not that far away example of what may happen and how unexpected it can be. Don't get me wrong, I like reading your posts and appreciate your opinion but I think your're somewhat biased on this subject

[AustinGuy]

I don't think most Austinites saw the last downturn coming in 2001-2003. We were hit very hard where I used to live in Northwest Austin, and I hope I don't have to go through that again.

One lesson I learned is that the job market and the housing market can change rapidly so it's best to take that into consideration whenever & wherever you purchase a house. Most people selling in my neck of the woods in 2002-2003 had their houses on the market over a year with multiple price drops.