Where's the real estate market at in Austin? (Dallas, Howe: stats, architectural)

[pjoseph2]

We have rented a nice house in NW Austin for almost 2 years now. Walkable distance to good public schools. Rent has been $1,800 per month. No increases whatsoever. Just another data point.

Much cheaper than owning the same property. In the meantime, i have seen property values around here fall at least 10 to 15%.

[CptnRn]

I don't think we are going to see that happening in this market. Too many people continue moving to this area. New home construction has waned over the last several years, not keeping up. Rental markets are running out of inventory driving rental prices up. As Jobert described the cost of building a new house is not competitive with existing housing stock, which will continue to depress the new housing stock.

Continued population growth + lack of new housing = housing shortages and higher prices.

My comment was in regard to silverbox's hope that "prices would continue to fall or remain flat for a few more years before we move out there".

Again I'm saying that is NOT likely to happen.

[austin-steve]

And Commercial Real Estate? Just drive around town to check out all the "For Lease" signs.

I was in a real estate class with a commercial agent last week. He said some really big deals are starting to happen again in the largest metros (NYC, LA, Chicago) and he said Architectural Billings nationwide have increased now beyond the former peak of 2007. Both of these data points are leading indicators of commercial market expectations, especially the architect billings which precede new projects.

The unknowns are still financing problems that still exist and global unreast and/or oil price inflation, which directly affects construction costs.

Steve

[orbius]

Originally Posted by Lttt

I keep hearing that it is really hard to find a job in Austin. So, how are so many people moving there? And if they don't have a job, how can they buy a house? I can see how coming from CA, Austin seems reasonable, but it still seems pricey.

Advertising, self-promotion. Tell desperate people, of which there are no shortage of in the US, that the streets are paved with gold in Austin and you'll get a ton of people testing the waters out. Thats why rents are going up while housing is continuing to decline.

[CptnRn]

Originally Posted by orbius

Advertising, self-promotion. Tell desperate people, of which there are no shortage of in the US, that the streets are paved with gold in Austin and you'll get a ton of people testing the waters out. Thats why rents are going up while housing is continuing to decline.

Just thought I'd test out this theory...

//www.city-data.com/forum/austi...ld-austin.html

[orbius]

Originally Posted by CptnRn

Just thought I'd test out this theory...

//www.city-data.com/forum/austi...ld-austin.html

Comedy never takes a day off on these forums. Excellent work.

[sliverbox]

My comment was in regard to silverbox's hope that "prices would continue to fall or remain flat for a few more years before we move out there".

Again I'm saying that is NOT likely to happen.

... and why not? There's just as much a chance prices will fall as they could rise. For example- and I'm not sure why this wasn't front page news- is that the government is going to slowly wind down Freddie and Fannie. They're the largest purchaser of mortgages. Freddie Mac was created to expand the secondary mortgage market. It also guaranteed the value of mortgages via the government. This of course led to a prolonged era of seemingly risk-averse lending. With the winding down of this institution mortgages would become privatized and that could very well lead to mortgages becoming more expensive. That's all fine and dandy with me. Personally I think it would be a good thing to force people to save up larger down payments. It would more or less "normalize" the real estate market and keep housing at more of a slow, steady appreciation.

Secondly and more immediately is the fact that the job market still sucks. Regardless of what Wall Street is doing now we're still missing a lot of jobs. Some of those might not come back. Almost 10% of the workforce is automatically out of the running to buy a home. Probably an additional 20% or so are out also due to cuts in hours and wages. I had also mentioned that cities like Austin are heavily reliant on out of state transplants. That pool has dried up considerably. Most who had been moving here did so because they sold their previous house. Those houses aren't selling anymore and they're losing value.

In any regard, I'm not at all concerned about the housing market. I rent a fairly nice house in the Bay Area for cheap, save up my money, and when I feel the time is right we'll move to Austin and buy a house. Simple as that.

[CptnRn]

Originally Posted by CptnRn

Just thought I'd test out this theory...

//www.city-data.com/forum/austi...ld-austin.html

It's working!!!

[bestaust]

Austin Real Estate: Know the Facts About Your Market
you can browse this helpful website Austin real estate search (http://www.austinhomesearch.com/Static/homeset.aspx - broken link)
for further information.

[CptnRn]

Originally Posted by austin-steve

I was in a real estate class with a commercial agent last week. He said some really big deals are starting to happen again in the largest metros (NYC, LA, Chicago) and he said Architectural Billings nationwide have increased now beyond the former peak of 2007. Both of these data points are leading indicators of commercial market expectations, especially the architect billings which precede new projects.

The unknowns are still financing problems that still exist and global unreast and/or oil price inflation, which directly affects construction costs.

Steve

I don't recall noticing that Architectural Billings were up much Feb. when you wrote that. They have been sinking since then. Architectural Record publishes this information every month.

This is the latest chart that is available on line.

http://archrecord.construction.com/c...entId=blogDest

After rising to 51.4 in August, the Architectural Billings Index plunged to 46.9 in September. The inquiries score also fell, from 56.9 to 54.3. A score above 50 denotes an increase in activity, and below 50, a decrease.

It appears the increased billings in August were an "aberration," says AIA chief economist Kermit Baker. “The economy needs to be stronger to generate sustained growth."

Regional scores, which are "formulated using a three-month moving average," were:
* Midwest, 51.0
* Northeast, 50.8
* South, 47.3
* West, 46.7