Just how serious is the water situation in central Texas? (Houston: home, storage)

[Komeht]

Yeah, I know we're under stage 2 water restrictions and the lake is down. But I can't recall a situation in my lifetime when it's been this dry for this long. The paltry rains we've had this winter are not nearly enough. And austin rapid population growth is testi g resources as never before.

So how bad is it really? Will another dry year out us in bad shape? I understand no water for rice farmers this year...what else does LCRA hold up its sleeves if this continues? Does San Antonio have enough? Are we competing with them for water? What happens if one or the other city gets so low it can no longer provide for basics?

In short, worse case scenario, are we fubar?

[mayfair44]

have fun: Climate Prediction Center

[Trainwreck20]

Right now (well, when not under restrictions), the rice farmers get a huge amount of water. With rice farming nixed for next year, we really aren't that desperate. If it gets worse, lawn watering will get eliminated and then we are good for a long time .

Although we aren't going gang-busters, we are down only about 3.7" over the last 6 months (from the average) and only about 0.5" below the median:

Month-----Median--Avg.----(Act.)--delta
--------------------------------
August-----1.6-----2.2----(3.03) +0.83
September-3.2------3.3---(4.75) +1.45
October----2.7-----3.4----(0.84) -2.6
November--1.8-----2.6----(trace) -2.6
December--1.6-----2.2----(0.83) -1.4
January----1.8-----2.2--- (2.8) +0.6 (as of 1/23)


It isn't really all that much dryer than normal this winter, it is just that we are trying to make up for some dry springs.....

SA and Austin are essentially on totally independent water sources, so they are not interrelated, really. SA is on Aquifer water, Austin on lake water, and both are in different watersheds entirely, so our surface water does not impact their aquifer water and their aquifer withdrawals do not impact springs that feed into our surface water.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Komeht

what else does LCRA hold up its sleeves if this continues?

LCRA is continuing to build (smaller) reserviors downstream. These will capture water that currently goes to waste (during heavier rains, which we still have from time to time, there was no place to capture it). This water can then be used for agricultural and industrial/power uses further downstream, freeing up more water to be retained for users upstream (Austin).

[Komeht]

Originally Posted by Trainwreck20

Right now (well, when not under restrictions), the rice farmers get a huge amount of water. With rice farming nixed for next year, we really aren't that desperate. If it gets worse, lawn watering will get eliminated and then we are good for a long time .

Although we aren't going gang-busters, we are down only about 3.7" over the last 6 months (from the average) and only about 0.5" below the median:

Month-----Median--Avg.----(Act.)--delta
--------------------------------
August-----1.6-----2.2----(3.03) +0.83
September-3.2------3.3---(4.75) +1.45
October----2.7-----3.4----(0.84) -2.6
November--1.8-----2.6----(trace) -2.6
December--1.6-----2.2----(0.83) -1.4
January----1.8-----2.2--- (2.8) +0.6 (as of 1/23)


It isn't really all that much dryer than normal this winter, it is just that we are trying to make up for some dry springs.....

SA and Austin are essentially on totally independent water sources, so they are not interrelated, really. SA is on Aquifer water, Austin on lake water, and both are in different watersheds entirely, so our surface water does not impact their aquifer water and their aquifer withdrawals do not impact springs that feed into our surface water.

State Drought Monitor

Seems we're in a "severe" D3 drought at the moment. I guess that's better than extreme or exception. The LCRA projections for Lake Travis on July First are 611-620. The historic low was 614 in 1951. The projected combined storage of Lake Buchanan and Travis is .53-.43 million acre feet at 26-21% capacity. The historic low is 0.62 at 31% capacity in 1952.

I don't know what the population growth has been since 1951-1952 - but I imagine it's a lot.

According to LCRA: "The weather the past few months has been particularly dry. Rainfall in October through December was the third driest on record for that period. Because the ground has been so dry lately, it would take a series of good soaking rains to produce significant inflows to help the lakes recover. Unfortunately, forecasts call for rainfall across the region to be generally below normal through at least March."

If we don't have any more rain this winter and we have another dry spring we could be in for some trouble this summer. I know that's a lot of if's - but that's what I'm wonder - what if we have a couple of more dry seasons leading into a typically dry summer? What would it take to slip into an extreme drought or an exceptional drought? What would an exceptional drought mean for central Texas?

[HappyTexan]

Thought it was quite the coincidence that this Statesman article lines up nicely with this thread.

Georgetown wants their citizens to use less water.
They say the average user uses 241 gallons per day.
I did the math and that comes to over 7000 gallons per month.

Yikes, that's a lot of water per person IMHO.
I was on private water and family of two we stayed under 3000 gallons per month.
I think it had more to do with being on a septic system so we watched our water use.

Officials want Georgetown residents to use less water | www.statesman.com

[Trainwreck20]

We were actually in extreme not that long ago, so it has been slightly better of late, albeit not rosy.

Exceptional or extreme drought over long periods will see many changes, but the largest will likely be to agricultural first, then discretionary home use - i.e. lawn watering. It also depends a lot on where you are in the state - extreme drought in Houston can still be a hell of a lot of rain compared to extreme drought in Lubbock.

You are correct, though, that the big test will be this spring - an average to slightly above average would be huge, especially with the rice shut down already. The rain we had early this month was apparently just enough to soak the ground - if we had gotten another inch or more across the board, it would have all been run-off. So close, but it never came. It did fall in the Colorado river watershed, at least.

[Trainwreck20]

They say the average user uses 241 gallons per day.

That includes outdoor watering, though, so that is really not that high of a number, historically speaking. We use ~3,000 gallons per month 'indoor' water, and that is a family of four. Outdoor, however, kills us for about three months.

[10scoachrick]

Of course, a lot will depend on the temperatures. From all the 'local' accounts I've heard since we got here, we're due for a cooler, if not wetter, year. Notwithstanding 'climate change' influence, nearly everyone familiar with central Texas swears the cycle WAS 2-3 years of hot/dry followed by one year of cooler and wetter. Well, for 4.66 years, we ain't seen no cooler/wetter except in VERY small batches.

We had an interesting late spring/early summer last year that allowed the lawns and plants to flourish early and hold on during the inevitable heat of dead summer. IF we don't get the rain and mild temps this spring, I'm afraid folks will hit the sprinklers hard and often in an effort to 'establish' their yards early on. Let's hope the current restrictions will A) Encourage continued conservation efforts and 2) Will be plenty to augment the natural rains we are hoping for. A 'normal' temperature year would go a long way toward that. There's a big difference between an average 95 degree high during the summer and 100 degrees for three or four straight months!

[orngkat]

I have been in central TX a long time - almost 50 years. Looking back, I noticed a change in the weather pattern in the late 1990s - definitely less rain and hotter temps since then overall. It does not seem to be easing up. I think it would be prudent to begin some very serious conservation efforts like graywater use regardless of the occasional rains that make it seem like things are getting better. These cities aren't getting any smaller and we seem to continue with the same cultural memes like watering lawns and other wasteful ways.