Can I expect home values in Pflugerville to rise? (Austin: sales, 2014)

[shane1234]

Hello all!

We've been renting for the last year here and are ready to pull the trigger on a new home in Pflugerville. Specifically, the Reserve at Westcreek neighborhood, on Kelly Ln, past Falcon Pointe.

Due to some financial problems in the past, we’ll be calling in some favors and pulling some strings to make the financing work, so I want to make sure things won’t turn sour on me as they did in the Las Vegas housing collapse.

The neighborhood is on the outskirts of north Pville, but the sales reps have all assured me there area is continuing to be developed and good schools and infrastructure improvements are underway.

So would this be a fairly safe move? If we were to sell in 3-5 years, would I be able to at least break even on the property?

[Komeht]

If you're planning on moving in 3-5 years don't buy. There is little chance of appreciation in that area, always the potential for the economy to slip back into recession and you'll never overcome the friction of the transaction costs.

However, I wouldn't expect a Vegas style housing collapse for the simple reason that there hasn't been a Vegas style housing bubble in that area.

[Kosmonaut]

[riaelise]

Pflugerville is zip code 78660.

[shane1234]

Yeah, looks likes it's been pretty steady over the years...

[riaelise]

Originally Posted by shane1234

Hello all!

We've been renting for the last year here and are ready to pull the trigger on a new home in Pflugerville. Specifically, the Reserve at Westcreek neighborhood, on Kelly Ln, past Falcon Pointe.

Due to some financial problems in the past, we’ll be calling in some favors and pulling some strings to make the financing work, so I want to make sure things won’t turn sour on me as they did in the Las Vegas housing collapse.

The neighborhood is on the outskirts of north Pville, but the sales reps have all assured me there area is continuing to be developed and good schools and infrastructure improvements are underway.

So would this be a fairly safe move? If we were to sell in 3-5 years, would I be able to at least break even on the property?

As someone who lives in the area and has witnessed the feeding frenzy, the market in N and NE Pflugerville (for sellers at least) is very hot at the moment. People are getting what they're asking, and there are more and more homes being listed for over 300k. Homes that are below 250 are selling in under the month, according to the local paper.

Listen, you are not gonna make money on any home in Pflugerville or much of Austin for that matter. I made a boatload of money selling my condo in NYC, but I'm wise enough to understand that that won't happen here. Anywhere. The only people who are gonna see that appreciation are those that purchased when it was beans and are selling high. Most people will experience the following: market up, down, flat, up...get the picture? Since you are buying new construction, you may or may not be overpaying. But considering the market we're in now, many many buyers are overpaying. If you're paying 300k in many Austin neighborhoods, it's not gonna spiral ever upwards. The one thing I can agree with Komeht is that you won't experience the Florida/Nevada decline because values here aren't artificially inflated.

You buy a home because that is what you like. If you like the house, the location, and the amenities (and there are a lot), and it fits within your budget, go for it. Our home value goes up and down all of the time and we don't give a flip because we like our home, we have a nice affordable mortgage (translation: we have more take home money), and we like where we live. That area has low crime, the better schools of Pflugerville, and great amenities.

Do your own due diligence, and go with what is good for you, but I don't think that worry about home value applies here.

BTW, the area is rapidly growing for a reason.

[Austin97]

Originally Posted by shane1234

Hello all!

We've been renting for the last year here and are ready to pull the trigger on a new home in Pflugerville. Specifically, the Reserve at Westcreek neighborhood, on Kelly Ln, past Falcon Pointe.

Due to some financial problems in the past, we’ll be calling in some favors and pulling some strings to make the financing work, so I want to make sure things won’t turn sour on me as they did in the Las Vegas housing collapse.

The neighborhood is on the outskirts of north Pville, but the sales reps have all assured me there area is continuing to be developed and good schools and infrastructure improvements are underway.

So would this be a fairly safe move? If we were to sell in 3-5 years, would I be able to at least break even on the property?

The economic forecasts I use are forecasting a recession in 2019 (softening in 2014). Obviously YMMV, but in any case I wouldnt buy a house if I knew I was moving in 3-5 years.

I would rent a house and try to get a longer term lease.

[riaelise]

I agree with Austin 97. You could rent it out, but that's a PITA. A home is a long term investment.

[verybadgnome]

Originally Posted by riaelise

As someone who lives in the area and has witnessed the feeding frenzy, the market in N and NE Pflugerville (for sellers at least) is very hot at the moment. People are getting what they're asking, and there are more and more homes being listed for over 300k. Homes that are below 250 are selling in under the month, according to the local paper.

Listen, you are not gonna make money on any home in Pflugerville or much of Austin for that matter. I made a boatload of money selling my condo in NYC, but I'm wise enough to understand that that won't happen here. Anywhere. The only people who are gonna see that appreciation are those that purchased when it was beans and are selling high. Most people will experience the following: market up, down, flat, up...get the picture? Since you are buying new construction, you may or may not be overpaying. But considering the market we're in now, many many buyers are overpaying. If you're paying 300k in many Austin neighborhoods, it's not gonna spiral ever upwards. The one thing I can agree with Komeht is that you won't experience the Florida/Nevada decline because values here aren't artificially inflated.

You buy a home because that is what you like. If you like the house, the location, and the amenities (and there are a lot), and it fits within your budget, go for it. Our home value goes up and down all of the time and we don't give a flip because we like our home, we have a nice affordable mortgage (translation: we have more take home money), and we like where we live. That area has low crime, the better schools of Pflugerville, and great amenities.

Do your own due diligence, and go with what is good for you, but I don't think that worry about home value applies here.

BTW, the area is rapidly growing for a reason.

Don't know about that. I bought an Austin home in 2000 for $92k and sold it nine years later for $150k. Problem with most suburban single families and condos anywhere is your chances for appreciation are small.

[Pinkribbonaustin]

I can't speak for Pflugerville, but my daughter and I have homes in Georgetown and things are crazy here. There is hardly anything to buy and when something goes up it's gone in 48 hours and folks are getting way beyond what they would normally ask for price wise. My house in Sun City has gone up $20,000 in 2 years and they are gone in 24 hours. A friend in Berry Creek sold their home for $50,000 more than what they had it up for last year when they decided not to sell and pulled it off the market. It sold last week the day after listing.