Is the gentrification of Austin affecting AISD demographics? (Houston, Round Rock: middle-class, 2013)

[Kosmonaut]

I stumbled across this info on AISD's website. The data only goes through 2010, but the trend from 2006 forward was an increase in the anglo birthrate, and a decline in Hispanic and AA birthrates within AISD. Is this the result of gentrification, and do you all think it has continued through 2013?

http://www.austinisd.org/sites/defau...ec_14_2012.pdf

It is important to note that AISD area births have changed with regard to race and
ethnicity. Figure 5 shows that since 2000, White births have declined from over
35 percent of the total to less than 31 percent, and African-American births have
dropped from 10 percent to seven percent. Hispanic births decreased from 54 to
51 percent, and “other” births increased from six to nearly seven percent in the
same period. It is somewhat surprising that between 2006 and 2010, the
percentage of White births increased and the percentage of Hispanic births
declined.


That is the latest data from Austin ISD. Does anyone think this trend will continue?

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[Kosmonaut]

I haven't noticed it in my neighborhood. Anyone else?

[verybadgnome]

Maybe but that increase in anglo births is still pretty small. OTOH the idea of a white couple having kids in 78702 does not seem crazy anymore as I see more young mothers push strollers than I did a few years ago.

I think it does point to the fact that for those still wanting to live within the city whites still have the edge in purchasing power and thus are less likely to get pushed out, unless of course they want to go to Williamson or Hays counties.

Would like to see the data on the average household size over time. I'd imagine it still being on the downward trend.

[ImOnFiya]

No, I am not surprised. The cost of living in East Austin has gone up by double-digits between 2000 and 2010. These neighborhoods were longed occupied by lower middle-class and working-class minorities; with escalating home prices occurring within Austin city limits, the better deals are in Pflugerville, East Round Rock, Hutto, Manor and Kyle.

Plus, I would also like to see those numbers during the IDEA-Eastside Memorial school sub-district charter years where a good chunk of far east Austin minorities were 'assigned' (and perhaps separated from the official AISD school population tally) until the 2013 school year when the AISD cancelled the IDEA contract. Right now, there is little question that the trend for central north and south Austin is the composition of home ownership becoming 'lily white' in several neighborhoods (and increasing apartment rents are not allowing lower middle-class families to stay comfortably in rental housing), these birth statistics finally probably will be precursors to overall white student increases.

[CptnRn]

Originally Posted by Kosmonaut

I haven't noticed it in my neighborhood. Anyone else?

Seriously? You think you would be able to notice a 1-4% change in the birth rate just by looking around?

[Kosmonaut]

Originally Posted by CptnRn

Seriously? You think you would be able to notice a 1-4% change in the birth rate just by looking around?

What I'm saying is that I'm not seeing in my neck of the woods, so there must be other neighborhoods making up the difference with double digit increases. one white kid in a class one year, and then there's like 3 or 4 all of a sudden. Wondering if parents are seeing that where they live, like in the '704. That birthrate anomaly would be showing up about now in the kindergartens and lower grades.

[Battle_Ax]

Originally Posted by Kosmonaut

I haven't noticed it in my neighborhood. Anyone else?

Austin is discouraging African Americans out of Austin and into DFW and Houston. The conventional wisdom is for AA to go to those other metros because there are not many AA in Austin, and they will be happier there. Which of course is a cycle that if uninterrupted will lead to a subtle decline in the AA community in Austin and of course lower birth rates.

[gpurcell]

Check out the demographic change at Kealing MS. It's now plurality Anglo.