Will Austin Home Prices Continue to Increase? (San Antonio, El Paso: renter, insurance)

[CptnRn]

//www.city-data.com/forum/austi...on-2014-a.html

[TerryDactyls]

Let the prices rise!!! My house goes on the market in late July.

[CptnRn]

Originally Posted by llkltk

Uh, how about land? What if the OP has a small lot or noisy dogs next door? What about space, maybe they need more space. There are so many reasons for moving up so I don't agree with your assumptions.

Well, he did say "unless you need to". Seems clear to me.

Originally Posted by Trainwreck20
I don't understand the logic in 'moving up' unless you need to. You will pay more in taxes, closing costs, utilities, etc. Save 'cashing out' that appreciation until you have to move or are retiring, whatever.

[CptnRn]

Originally Posted by Trainwreck20

I don't understand the logic in 'moving up' unless you need to. You will pay more in taxes, closing costs, utilities, etc. Save 'cashing out' that appreciation until you have to move or are retiring, whatever.

If you have money to invest, given the low interest rates available on CD's and other investments, 'moving up' in property can be one of the safer investments one can make these days, as long as home appreciation after costs is exceeding the inflation rate.

Currently the interest one can earn on a CD is not keeping up with inflation.

[austin-steve]

Originally Posted by alwaysmiling

where was said property? just curious...

It was in the '04.

By the way, I met the buyers (I was listing agent) after closing, who had lost out on 8 consecutive multiple offer attempts prior to this one and were determined not to have a 9th. They were delighted. I don't think they paid "too much", but rather gave up about 1 year of appreciation. No big deal if holding long term.

Some buyers figure this out and end up with a house. Others get discouraged and leave the market, remaining renters, only to pay more a year or two later than they would have been required to to come out on top in a competitive multiple offer situation. And perhaps a higher interest rate later on compounds the folly of giving up.

We are in that sort of market again now in many areas, including Central and SW Austin. Buyers with an "A Game" win. The others are simply attending real estate market school with each successive lost deal.

Steve

[gpurcell]

I am so glad I bought when the market was down in 03. That is an appalling situation to be in as a buyer!

[riaelise]

I really don't see things being like this forever, so I am not worried about it. I am definitely not going to drastically overpay on a house.

[brattpowered]

Not every house is homeowner-occupied. There are a lot of investors sitting on homes in this city. If the wind blows a different way and Austin becomes less desirable for whatever reason, these people will do what investors do and go where the most money is to be made. Has anyone heard of the term, "boom and bust"? It is most likely to happen where a boom has occurred.

[CptnRn]

Originally Posted by brattpowered

Not every house is homeowner-occupied. There are a lot of investors sitting on homes in this city. If the wind blows a different way and Austin becomes less desirable for whatever reason, these people will do what investors do and go where the most money is to be made. Has anyone heard of the term, "boom and bust"? It is most likely to happen where a boom has occurred.

Good point. S*** happens...

According to City-Data, For Austin: Houses: 276,611 (265,409 occupied: 119,191 owner occupied, 146,218 renter occupied)
% of renters here: 55%
% of renters State: 54%
Read more: //www.city-data.com/housing/hou...#ixzz2tLVFEQ6z

But S*** happens everywhere. I can't think of many foul winds that could blow a different way across Austin that would not also effect the rest of the state and much of the US. So the question is:

How is Austin likely to fair compared to those other places?

In my opinion Texas' good fortune in this last recession was largely because of location (central in USA), natural resources, climate and a low cost of living, which makes it a desirable place for businesses to locate, producing jobs.

Even though costs have risen in Texas and especially Austin, the region still has enormous advantages when compared to most of the rest of the USA.



So even with costs rising here, I predict that Texas and Austin will continue to be a desirable place to live for an extended period of time.

In my opinion the worst that could happen for Texas is for global warming to continue, flooding large parts of the TX coast such as Houston and other parts of the US. Heat will make Austin summers worse, but people will still move to Austin rather than stay around partially flooded Houston and other flooded cities in both the East and West coasts of the US. And our winters will be milder, resulting in 9+ months of nice weather.

Our biggest worry should be providing enough water for everyone who lives here, if current droughts continue. We probably need to invest more into desalination plant research.

[scm53]

Originally Posted by CptnRn

% of renters here: 55%

That renter percentage hasn't changed in thirty years. The two declines I've seen in Austin RE in that period were both tied to job losses - not because investors moved on to the next big thing. Low demand for owner occupied at the same time vacancies rose and rents softened. But eventually, prices started right back up. Watch the jobs numbers - that will tell you what RE here will do.