Native Austinite – Is the future of traffic really this bleak? (West: sales, design)

[robertsacamano]

Originally Posted by Novacek

What they said and what you claim they said aren't the same thing. The lanes on Mopac will _not_ be overwhelmed by expected demand.

They don't have capacity for everyone who might want to use them were they free. But they're not free, so they won't be overwhelmed.

Everything I have read has said the exact opposite - the lane will be at full capacity as soon as it opens - including what I just quoted from their site. Now, that said, they are going to use variable pricing so they should be able to control traffic that way. The only way to really do that is to show the price at the entry point for the toll lane - "$8.00 today". Otherwise, behavior will lag the actual price for that day.

[robertsacamano]

See this: What’s the Hold Up? The Mopac Improvement Project |

The focus of the project is the addition of express toll lanes, which will allow drivers to largely bypass congestion. But Pustelnyk said these are not for everyday use; they’re for those days when you’re on a high priority trip and are willing to pay a decent amount of money to get there quick. The base fee is 25 cents for each leg (North and South), or 50 cents total; that fee increases based on the number of cars in the lane.

“What we’ll be doing is analyzing traffic volumes and saying ‘Oh, we’re going to get congested here if we don’t start raising the price,’ so if we’re still getting congested we’ll raise it some more,” Pustelnyk said. “Essentially when we get to the point where people say, ‘Oh, that’s too expensive, I’m not going to use it,’ and we keep traffic flowing with the lane at full capacity but not congested, then that’s what the price will be. It’s being driven by the users.”

So as the lane gets congested, a computer that has been analyzing data will suggest a price, a human will confirm that price, and the toll rises. According to Pustelnyk, during rush hour drivers could be paying as much as $6 or $7 a trip; in the middle of the night, the toll will likely bottom-out at 50 cents.

Adding a toll road, however, can’t possibly solve the entire problem, at least according to Texas Alliance Group engineer Jeff Loskorn. Loskorn knows traffic; maybe that’s why his optimism is characterized by hesitation.

“This is not a simple problem nor does it have a simple solution,” Loskorn said. “There are too many people trying to use the highway system during rush hour. There’s no silver bullet to fix this problem.”

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by robertsacamano

Everything I have read has said the exact opposite - the lane will be at full capacity as soon as it opens - including what I just quoted from their site.

Full capacity but not over capacity. In other words, not "overwhelmed by demand".

Your own quote says it: "we keep traffic flowing with the lane at full capacity but not congested"

Originally Posted by robertsacamano

Now, that said, they are going to use variable pricing so they should be able to control traffic that way. The only way to really do that is to show the price at the entry point for the toll lane - "$8.00 today". Otherwise, behavior will lag the actual price for that day.

I think you're fundamentally misunderstanding what they're doing. It's not "$8.00 today". It's "$8.00 this minute" or "$8.00 _now_". The price they charge at 7:00 AM and the price they charge at 10:00 AM will be different. The price they charged at 7 AM yesterday and the price they're charging at 7AM today can/will be different.

[robertsacamano]

Originally Posted by Novacek

Full capacity but not over capacity. In other words, not "overwhelmed by demand".

Your own quote says it: "we keep traffic flowing with the lane at full capacity but not congested"

I think you're fundamentally misunderstanding what they're doing. It's not "$8.00 today". It's "$8.00 this minute" or "$8.00 _now_". The price they charge at 7:00 AM and the price they charge at 10:00 AM will be different. The price they charged at 7 AM yesterday and the price they're charging at 7AM today can/will be different.

No, I'm not fundamentally misunderstanding anything. I understand very well how the pricing scheme works. If they think an algorithm used to enforce price discrimination will work, then they will need to alert people in real-time that they are about to pay $8 to go south on Mopac in the express lane. If they don't tell someone that is the price at that point in time, the person driving may just let it fall to their toll tag bill. At the end of the day, traffic is a constant. The traffic tomorrow at 745am on Mopac going south is within 5% of what it was yesterday. So, I predict the toll lane will be full and ~nearly~ congested every day during rush hour in both directions. What is "congested"? Is it the 15-20 mph of normal Mopac traffic for 5 miles or is it 30-40 mph?

The interesting thing is - what is the tipping point? At what decreased benefit will people be willing to stop paying? Will I pay $8 to go 10 mph faster than the guy paying nothing? But really, either way, it doesn't matter. Construction will continue, Mopac won't be widened and people will continue to sit in traffic.

[robertsacamano]

Here's a fun one: MoPac northern artery out of Austin TX getting toll lanes - Toll Roads News

This states that the average peak morning speed of traffic on Mopac is 27.5mph (2011). That sounds about right depending on where you start and stop measuring and in which direction you're measuring. That said, they claim that with this new express lane, that average will fall to 15MPH by 2035 WITH the new lane.

"Traffic for this alternative was modeled with an assumption that the Express lane would be maintained at a LOS C. If an Express lane were added to MoPac in each direction, the average speed on the three GP lanes would be 29 mph in the year 2035. While the peak morning travel speed would average 15 mph in the GP lanes, the Express lane would average 57 mph. The peak evening travel would average 13 mph in the GP lanes while the Express lane would average 59 mph.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by robertsacamano

No, I'm not fundamentally misunderstanding anything. I understand very well how the pricing scheme works. If they think an algorithm used to enforce price discrimination will work, then they will need to alert people in real-time that they are about to pay $8 to go south on Mopac in the express lane. If they don't tell someone that is the price at that point in time, the person driving may just let it fall to their toll tag bill.

The fact that you're stating this as a conditional (if) means that you don't understand what they're doing. Yes, you'll know what the cost is before you enter.

Variable Pricing 101 | MoPac Improvement Project

"Changeable electronic signs display the current rates in real time, so drivers know the price before deciding whether to enter the lanes."

"Once you are in the lanes, the price you saw on the signs is the price you are guaranteed to pay. Drivers entering after you or at different locations may pay a different rate"

Originally Posted by robertsacamano

So, I predict the toll lane will be full and ~nearly~ congested every day during rush hour in both directions. What is "congested"? Is it the 15-20 mph of normal Mopac traffic for 5 miles or is it 30-40 mph?

What's "nearly congested"? Is that like "nearly pregnant"?

almost (but not quite) congested is the _ideal_. It means you're making optimal use of the limited resource (the lane) while everyone is still able to get where they're going quickly and safely.

Somewhere on the site (can't find it now) I believe they said 50 mph is what they'll attempt to "guarantee"

Originally Posted by robertsacamano

The interesting thing is - what is the tipping point? At what decreased benefit will people be willing to stop paying? Will I pay $8 to go 10 mph faster than the guy paying nothing?

I don't know, will you pay $8 to go 40 mph (and 4x) faster than the guy paying nothing (your own link)?

That's the great thing about the dynamic pricing. It _doesn't matter_ what the tipping point is, or even if it's different for different days of the week, different weather conditions, if there's accidents that day, etc. Because the algorithm will optimize to find it.

[robertsacamano]

Originally Posted by Novacek

The fact that you're stating this as a conditional (if) means that you don't understand what they're doing. Yes, you'll know what the cost is before you enter.

Variable Pricing 101 | MoPac Improvement Project

"Changeable electronic signs display the current rates in real time, so drivers know the price before deciding whether to enter the lanes."

"Once you are in the lanes, the price you saw on the signs is the price you are guaranteed to pay. Drivers entering after you or at different locations may pay a different rate"

.

So, they'll have signs. Great. Doesn't change the mess that this will become. How high do you think they'll have to raise that rate to guarantee 50mph? They will have no caps which differs from the other places where they've tried this like San Diego.

The answer is not one pathetic express lane, it's a real comprehensive road plan. You're deluded if you think it's going to have anything but a negligible effect.

[scm53]

Originally Posted by robertsacamano

The answer is not one pathetic express lane, it's a real comprehensive road plan. You're deluded if you think it's going to have anything but a negligible effect.

Your goal for Mopac express lanes is different than what they were designed for. They weren't designed to appreciably increase the lane miles in Austin. They WERE designed to increase the utility of higher occupancy vehicles like express buses and van pools. The SOVs in the lanes are just there to pay for it.

If a "comprehensive road plan" includes multiple new lanes on Mopac or 35, then stand by to be disappointed. There are existing plans for express lanes on Mopac south, and 35 in both directions, as well as 183 N. Next most reasonable plan is for expanding and tolling 183 east of town, AKA the Bergstrom Expressway. That would allow some N-S traffic on 35, including local, to divert away from downtown.

Only things past those two that are even possible - and both will set off atomic political bombs - is to make 360 the limited access highway it was designed to be, and upgrade 620 from 183 to 71 as well. The LEDs I bought this weekend will outlast those two, so I wouldn't get my hopes up.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by robertsacamano

So, they'll have signs. Great. Doesn't change the mess that this will become. How high do you think they'll have to raise that rate to guarantee 50mph? They will have no caps which differs from the other places where they've tried this like San Diego.

San Diego seems to "cap" at $8. I'd be interested to see if they ever hit that in practice.

i-15 Express Lanes

San Diego also makes it free for HOV and no emissions vehicles. By definition, that will make their congestion control less effective.

Originally Posted by robertsacamano

The answer is not one pathetic express lane, it's a real comprehensive road plan. You're deluded if you think it's going to have anything but a negligible effect.

real comprehensive road plan

CAMPO 2035 Plan - CAMPO - Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization

CAMPO 2040 Plan - CAMPO - Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization

[robertsacamano]

Originally Posted by scm53

Your goal for Mopac express lanes is different than what they were designed for. They weren't designed to appreciably increase the lane miles in Austin. They WERE designed to increase the utility of higher occupancy vehicles like express buses and van pools. The SOVs in the lanes are just there to pay for it.

Someone should take a poll of residents to see if their expectation is the same as mine. My guess is everyone is going to be shocked when they see the reality of what they are suffering through construction for.