Travis County among nation’s worst for economic mobility (2015, buying)

[scm53]

Originally Posted by austin-steve

I can't get past that. You don't know that to even be the case. The conclusions of the study are flawed, for reasons already mentioned in this thread.

Ok, if you like it better, how about "There are indications that the average 26 yr. old raised in Giddings makes $5K a year more than one raised in Austin"?

Neither of us know whether it is really the case, or isn't. But on the chance that it might be, isn't it worth looking into?

[Aquitaine]

Originally Posted by scm53

Nor is a single personal anecdote indicative of a bloomin' thing on a national (or even county) basis.

That's just it - you need to make so many assumptions to assume relevance in this report. I'm not suggesting that I'm typical or atypical - I'm suggesting that this study is drawing conclusions about everybody's income at 26 when it doesn't begin to even imagine the reasons for it. It is looking at a very early snapshot and drawing conclusions.

It isn't providing you with data about anything other than the incomes of 26 year olds. It doesn't talk about when they began looking for jobs, or break down what those jobs were, or even try do any real sleuthing. I'm not trying to defeat the study with an anecdote, I'm saying that it's trivial to come up with a hundred reasons why, at 26, kid A will have a different income than kid B.

As far as snapshots go, how about 'total Federal income taxes paid by age 45' - still tough to draw many conclusions but at least it's giving us an aggregate that is a bit more informative.

[pop251808]

I have just one thing to add to the Travis/Lee County dichotomy: fracking; get you some.

[Novacek]

How many people in Lee County are making >500K a year? The study claims to draw conclusions across income segments, including the top 1%.

"For a family with a parent in his or her 40s, the 25th percentile corresponds to an annual income of about $30,000; the 50th percentile to about $60,000; the 75th percentile to about $100,000; and the top 1 percent to more than $500,000. Estimates are based on children born between 1980 and 1986, and their neighborhoods in the 1980s and 1990s. Median rent is for 2000, in 2012 dollars. At the 25th percentile, the margin of error for each of the county estimates is around $1,100."

But I'd be very surprised if many of these counties had a sufficiently large statistical simple of those upper brackets.

[hound 109]

How many 26 year olds residing in Travis Country are still attending school (& making very little or zero income)? How many are bartenders, musicians etc. & making mostly tips (& not reporting much income)? How many are still on the govt (or their parent's) teat? What would all of these non-earners be as a percentage of all 26 year olds in Travis County?

I suspect 98%+ of the 26 year olds residing in Lee County are working & earning some type of income. Some of them doing very well in the Oil patch (now).

So who's doing better? The 26 y/o working on his dissertation on Finance (& earning -0-) ? or the 26 y/o earning 60K per year as a roustabout working outside Lexington? Who will be doing better in 2025?

Do the study for 36 year olds (or 46 year olds) & it might tell us something.

[Trainwreck20]

Yup, 26 is a bad age to make global conclusions about anything. There may be an issue here, there may not. Show me the same 'kids' in the next 10, 20, 30, etc years to see if there is a significant difference. Hell, I graduated college at 25 and waited tables for 2 years because I could. At age 26, I had a chemical engineering degree and was making about $14,000 a year. I would say I had an almost story-book childhood, which I would (in hindsight) say extended to about age 27, when I got a 'real' job at the state. My income now has no bearing on my income then. My happiness then was totally unrelated to my income, and I would NEVER trade it for a few thousand dollars.

As pointed out above, extended stints at school by large numbers of the population result in a 'negative' in this study - i.e., getting a Ph.D. is 'bad', as you aren't earning enough at 26. Also, having a network of family or friends (possibly because you stayed in-county) that allow you to live more 'frugally' and explore your options is 'bad'.

I know this is anecdotal, but I knew many, many people on similar career trajectories - they did not start 'settling down' until much later than I would guess is typical.

[austin-steve]

Originally Posted by Trainwreck20

Yup, 26 is a bad age to make global conclusions about anything.

Yep. I graduated near the bottom of my high school class at age 17, was a serial college drop out the first few years of my "gap decade", managed to put together a couple of years of college in Corpus Christi despite uninterrupted hard partying, came to Austin at age 23 and kept partying, and by age 26 was unemployed, again, sleeping on a friends couch with no car or money. The definition of a "washout" in life.

Then I snapped to, got my act together, graduated UT Business School at age 31, working my way through, had met a gal, had kids, started making money and buying real estate, and then the white picket fence life ever since. 20 years later I can retire if I wanted.

There is no stupider age at which to draw conclusions about anyone in life than age 26, as has aptly been repeated in this thread. Yet these researchers don't know this?

[scm53]

Originally Posted by austin-steve

There is no stupider age at which to draw conclusions about anyone in life than age 26, as has aptly been repeated in this thread. Yet these researchers don't know this?

Because the point all of you are missing is that this study has ZERO to do with individuals, and everything to do with environments and the results. "Lifetime" earnings potential has many factors, and those increase every year you move away from childhood -- rendering the effects of childhood environment increasingly irrelevant. The chosen age is a marking point -- nothing more. Research is about controlling the variables, and moving later in life increases the variables.

If one were drawing "conclusions about anyone in life" you'd have a point. But this study isn't about "anyone". So, ergo, the disconnect between what some wish this measured, and what they are really measuring.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by scm53

Because the point all of you are missing is that this study has ZERO to do with individuals, and everything to do with environments and the results. "Lifetime" earnings potential has many factors, and those increase every year you move away from childhood -- rendering the effects of childhood environment increasingly irrelevant. The chosen age is a marking point -- nothing more. Research is about controlling the variables, and moving later in life increases the variables.

If one were drawing "conclusions about anyone in life" you'd have a point. But this study isn't about "anyone". So, ergo, the disconnect between what some wish this measured, and what they are really measuring.

But the study's claim was that it measured "economic mobility"

"Travis County among nation’s worst for economic mobility"

Sounds like a "conclusion about life" to me.

[scm53]

Originally Posted by hound 109

HI suspect 98%+ of the 26 year olds residing in Lee County are working & earning some type of income. Some of them doing very well in the Oil patch (now).

So who's doing better? The 26 y/o working on his dissertation on Finance (& earning -0-) ? or the 26 y/o earning 60K per year as a roustabout working outside Lexington? Who will be doing better in 2025?

Females raised in Lee County do even better than males. Think they are roustabouts? And what makes one think that there aren't kids raised in Lee County that are "working on his dissertation on Finance (& earning -0-)"?

Kids in Gillespie County do better across the board than kids raised in Travis County. Oil patch jobs?

Boys raised in top 1% households in Travis County make $4,300 a year less than boys raised in similar households in Bexar County. How's that for a blow to the collective Austin self-image?