Central Austin housing values will decline in late 2015/2016 (credit, houses)

[cheapaustinite]

Originally Posted by Shredding_Gnar78

pretty funny how the claws come out when someone suggests a notion contrary to the group incentive here.

notorious credit rating agency says 'yes, overvalued'. I believe them.

many of those 100K jobs will be at risk if the market volatility persist. however, the market may have an adverse effect and cause liquidity from sold equities looking for a place to grow.

perception is everything. intrinsically of course, these houses are way overvalued.

keeping these pockets of $400K+ houses shielded from the fear of devaluation housing is important for investors and state revenue. so many forces are at work to keep them stable, if not appreciating.

Austin has transformed enough to appeal to those seeking it's current form, and by that I mean people that have acclimated to higher economies in major cities.

I don't see them crashing. but those looking for the home run flips may find they are in the final innings of this current game.

I hear you. I don't think they are crashing... crashing is diff. from a slight correction in pricing. 10-20% correction from current prices would mean we're going back a year in terms of pricing which is not a crash.

Downtown Austin prices are starting to mirror those of major cities that have more appeal to them and will continue to have more appeal for time to come, imo.

[JT-3]

Originally Posted by cheapaustinite

I have already been seeing the indicators for months, but the market is going from a sellers market to a buyers market pretty soon if its not already here. I am talking primarily about homes in the $400,000+ range. The argument that the prices will go up forever at such massive yearly appreciation is ludicrous. I have seen homes purchased for $700,000 in 2013 going for $1.1 million in 2015. I find that kind of appreciation hard to believe. I'm a believer that Austin housing will rise long term but its going to require a 10-20% correction in pricing first at the very least.

Thoughts?

Can you cite any examples?

[cheapaustinite]

Originally Posted by JT-3

Can you cite any examples?

I'll see if I find some time this week to develop something for accurate market trend analysis that captures the right variables and keep it as unbiased as possible by highlighting as many positive and negative factors as possible.

[AustinRoady]

Originally Posted by cheapaustinite

I'll see if I find some time this week to develop something for accurate market trend analysis that captures the right variables and keep it as unbiased as possible by highlighting as many positive and negative factors as possible.

According to you you already had them, what's there to develop?

Originally Posted by cheapaustinite

I have already been seeing the indicators for months

Listen, nobody has said that the higher-end market (500-600+) will continue to see the run up that it has to this point - all your post sounds like is sour grapes, since you can't find what you want at the price you want anymore.

Will the inflation we've seen over the past 3 years continue? I highly doubt that. Will it drop? Highly doubt that as well.

[verybadgnome]

Originally Posted by cheapaustinite

I'll see if I find some time this week to develop something for accurate market trend analysis that captures the right variables and keep it as unbiased as possible by highlighting as many positive and negative factors as possible.

You could use redfin to look at reported transaction prices, per square foot, over time. Of course some homes are sold off of MLS so no reasonable way to get those.

It would also be interesting to see percentage of cash sales over time and if there is a trend. If people are not relying on incomes, but instead personal wealth, that changes the analysis.

[emeraldcitymer]

Originally Posted by verybadgnome

You could use redfin to look at reported transaction prices, per square foot, over time. Of course some homes are sold off of MLS so no reasonable way to get those.

It would also be interesting to see percentage of cash sales over time and if there is a trend. If people are not relying on incomes, but instead personal wealth, that changes the analysis.

Which is why I haven't focused too much on the hot zipcodes. I feel like if it's a good deal there are too many cash buyers to compete with.

[cheapaustinite]

Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong. Who knows. What is a fact is that a lot of posters here have skin in the game and incentive for nothing like this to occur. My incentive is much lower - I am planning to move out of Austin in 8 months and simply wanted to buy a home here before I left as I have a lot of liquidity and plan on buying 3-4 homes in the next few years in various cities. I am not tied to Austin, but I do love the city.

[buffettjr]

Originally Posted by cheapaustinite

I have already been seeing the indicators for months, but the market is going from a sellers market to a buyers market pretty soon if its not already here.

Thoughts?

Why would you say this and then not tell us any of the indicators? What are the indicators you've been seeing in the past months?

[buffettjr]

"Can you site any examples?"

Originally Posted by cheapaustinite

I'll see if I find some time this week to dev....

That means no.

OP, people aren't getting onto you because they "have skin in the game" or because they are part of a grand conspiracy to artificially inflate real estate prices via forum posts as you and the other poster who agree with you suggest. It's because you came up with an unlikely conclusion you said was based on facts and then refused to provide any of the facts that support it. And FYI, a 20% drop ("at the least") in a levered asset like a home is absolutely a crash. An enormous one at that.

[buffettjr]

I don't know what that means, but OP posited what most would say is an extremely unlikely scenario and then said it was based on indicators he'd seen. We're merely asking him to provide those indicators to support his conclusion. The reason is because I suspect it wasn't based on any indicators but rather on wishful thinking.