Central Austin housing values will decline in late 2015/2016

[petro]

The only way Central Austin housing values will rapidly decline is if we were to suddenly make a drastic increase in the amount of houses in the Central Austin area. Since that's not going to happen any time soon, if ever, the high cost of Central Austin housing is here to stay.

[cheapaustinite]

I have done a lot of the math in my head to date so I was going to just get it "on paper", so attempting to discredit me based on wishful thinking is interesting. In that case, it is wishful thinking to expect prices to rise or decline as the future is uncertain and that is the only truth. Please take a look at the headlines leading up to the housing crisis - almost no one saw it coming. This is no housing crisis, but there is significant exuberance amongst sellers who think a 30-40% appreciation in 2 years is going to stick. You are already starting to see prices decline and remaining longer on the market in central amongst active listings. Fact is, Austin is not San Francisco where the prices and quick appreciation is justified by the sheer beauty, higher incomes, and limited land in the area. Austin can build for a long, long time without having any issues. Austin also doesn't even come close to the appeal of SF.

There is one fact though:
When interest rates rise, prices drop – and when interest rates drop, prices rise.

I, for one, am interested to see how home prices react once we normalize interest rates in the future. I am a cash buyer so it won't affect me regardless.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by cheapaustinite

Fact is, Austin is not San Francisco where the prices and quick appreciation is justified by the sheer beauty, higher incomes, and limited land in the area. Austin can build for a long, long time without having any issues. Austin also doesn't even come close to the appeal of SF.

And Austin prices don't even come close to SF.

But you're wrong, Austin is extremely limited in land in the central city. It's all used up, and there's minimal opportunities for infill.

[buffettjr]

Originally Posted by cheapaustinite

I have done a lot of the math in my head to date so I was going to just get it "on paper", so attempting to discredit me based on wishful thinking is interesting. In that case, it is wishful thinking to expect prices to rise or decline as the future is uncertain and that is the only truth. Please take a look at the headlines leading up to the housing crisis - almost no one saw it coming. This is no housing crisis, but there is significant exuberance amongst sellers who think a 30-40% appreciation in 2 years is going to stick. You are already starting to see prices decline and remaining longer on the market in central amongst active listings. Fact is, Austin is not San Francisco where the prices and quick appreciation is justified by the sheer beauty, higher incomes, and limited land in the area. Austin can build for a long, long time without having any issues. Austin also doesn't even come close to the appeal of SF.

There is one fact though:
When interest rates rise, prices drop – and when interest rates drop, prices rise.

I, for one, am interested to see how home prices react once we normalize interest rates in the future. I am a cash buyer so it won't affect me regardless.

You said a lot of fluff here yet still forgot to give us the indicators/numbers you'd seen. "There is one fact though:
When interest rates rise, prices drop – and when interest rates drop, prices rise. " Your theory that interest rates might rise later has nothing to do with indicators you've already seen "over the last few months". It's clear you're not going to post any, because you have none, so I'll leave it alone. No point in beating a dead horse.