Has Austin peaked in popularity? (Houston, Dallas: sales, real estate market, loans)

[scongress1234]

I am of the firm conclusion that Austin is or has peaked as a hot relo destination. I'm aware that I may be ruffling some feathers here, but let's look at it deeply for a bit. Austin has been on the top ten lists from about '95 on, so it has been on the national radar for some time. As we know, that hot buzz doesn't last forever. Eventually, it just plays itself out, like any hot cultural item, and life moves on. When a cultural item jumps the shark, it is typically soon after it peaks in buzz. Austin has definitely peaked per buzz. The question is, how long can the peak sustain itself, and what will happen after the national buzz ebbs? Can one expect Austin to continue to grow of its own accord without the current press attention? Does it have the well-rounded, balanced economy that would give it 10-20 more years of continued growth? Can it draw out-of-staters for non-housing related issues if the national real estate economy drops another 25-30% the next few years?

Re: Housing Meltdown

If the tech and service sector tanks, can Austin rise again as it did after the last tech meltdown, post '02, or will the last few years be seen as a singular time for Austin, a dynamic peak that perhaps will be fondly looked back for years as a special, unique time?

Re;
Stocks Plunge on Service Sector Weakness: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance (broken link)

To put it simply, how will Austin withstand what looks to be a quite hellacious time for real estate and the economy in general nationally? It seems to have bucked trends somewhat recently, but is that sustainable? How much does Austin still rely on tech? What would another 2001-like real estate slowdown do to the city this time, and how strongly would it come back after the deluge? Are we looking at the all-time peak in Austin per all these things right now, a golden age, so to speak, that will never be replicated again?

In my opinion, cities that have long-term legs are not exciting, but do have the well-rounded economies that can grow for the long term. Houston, for example, may not be on anyone's charm or cute list, but has the critical mass of energy, tech,
and such that should keep it going for years....same with Phoenix, Los Angeles, Dallas, and other nondescript cities.
Can charm alone carry a metro area such as Austin? When it stops being cute, what then?

[SweethomeSanAntonio]

I don't think so, it will continue along as there is room to grow. Austin is pretty small time compared to the Atlanta's, Houston's etc. These cities were Austin's size once, and they are still always on the radar.

[Biscuits]

Originally Posted by scongress1234

When it stops being cute, what then?

I guess we move to Dallas, LA, Phoenix, or Houston.

[Delayedreaction1986]

Is Austin going to stop being accorded 'hot relo destination' in magazines and top 10 lists, then, the question is: who cares? It doesn't really make a difference.

Remember when everybody wanted to move to Seattle in 1990-1993?

Was that Seattle's "peak", or just the peak of a certain kind of PR?

I mean I guess I'm saying, there's a difference between being on the 'hot relo destination' lists in magazines which will probably no longer exist in 5 years, and actually being a growing, vibrant city with an expanding economy.

[jwb123]

No Seattle's peak was the mid 90's, during the dot com craze.

I still think Austin has a lot of room for growth, so no - I don't think it's at it's peak yet. I think, nationwide, we are seeing a downturn across the board, so the issues we may see in Austin, are not specific to Austin.

[S6Sputnik]

Here are my reasons why ATX is still a popular place to move to!:

1) State Government/ Military (Ft Hood)
2) UT
3) Dell, AMD, 3M, IBM, Wholefoods, TI
4) Real estate has not been over inflated since 2002
5) Medical
6) Suncity retirement community
7) Hill ountry views for reasonable prices
8) Retail sales are still strong in Austin in spite of what you hear on the National News!
9) We are not on an oil field, but oil $ will make it here!
10) I live here

You can work, play and retire here for a reasonable amount of money!

[scongress1234]

Originally Posted by Delayedreaction1986

Is Austin going to stop being accorded 'hot relo destination' in magazines and top 10 lists, then, the question is: who cares? It doesn't really make a difference.

Remember when everybody wanted to move to Seattle in 1990-1993?

Was that Seattle's "peak", or just the peak of a certain kind of PR?

I mean I guess I'm saying, there's a difference between being on the 'hot relo destination' lists in magazines which will probably no longer exist in 5 years, and actually being a growing, vibrant city with an expanding economy.

Good point, the difference between media hype and the actual economy. That is actually the crux of my question.....when you remove the fanfare, smoke, and such, where does Austin, and other cities that were born on the wings of hype, stand? There is no doubt that hype played a huge role in generating interest in Austin, per investments, relocatees from out-of-state, and such. This was a predicated game plan by the major players in Austin business, and it worked far beyond even their expectations. I would think that at one point it was needed, and played a large role in its growth. If the hype isn't necessary, wouldn't it be counter-productive at this point, perhaps oversaturating its cultural meme in the national media? If it is necessary, is it possible that Austin really DOES rely on hype and press for growth, the absence of which would slow growth noticably? Stated one last time, where is the line between reality and hype in Austin? How many new residents came here BECAUSE of national media saturation, and how markedly would local growth slow if the hype slowed or stopped?

[austin-steve]

I am of the firm conclusion that Austin is or has peaked as a hot relo destination.

Facts and common sense will disagree with your assessment. Austin's growth, and Texas as well, is just starting to get rolling big time and will continue to be a sought after destination for the coming 2 or 3 decades.

Check out this article from Texas A&M Research Center about the looming boom. It explains what we're in for very well.
http://recenter.tamu.edu/pdf/1841.pdf

Steve

[scongress1234]

Originally Posted by austin-steve

Facts and common sense will disagree with your assessment. Austin's growth, and Texas as well, is just starting to get rolling big time and will continue to be a sought after destination for the coming 2 or 3 decades.

Check out this article from Texas A&M Research Center about the looming boom. It explains what we're in for very well.
http://recenter.tamu.edu/pdf/1841.pdf

Steve

I think the sunbelt itself, of which Austin is a part, will continue to grow. It has seen a population shift for many decades now, from Phoenix to southern cal and fla. Austin is a bit singular in its hype and growth in the sunbelt, in that it has grown and been hyped up far more than any other sunbelt city the last 10 years. The question is, how will Austin fare vis-a-vis the sunbelt itself, and how much has hype played in this singular growth, even for the sunbelt? A corollary situation is this: The largest real estate busts have been in this same sunbelt, from Vegas to southern cal to Phoenix to fla. Now that the funding that enabled this growth is drying up, perhaps for some time, where does Austin stand in this situation and geographical area, in that it relies on the same sources? Is Austin a special real estate market with its own unique funding sources? Can it stand alone as the financial sources dry up and shut down? I feel that the sunbelt itself, while in a very long term growth tangent, relies on hype far more than the other regions, and suffers accordingly higher highs and lower lows. Again, is Austin special and unique enough to buck these recent trends for the next 2-3 years? It wasn't in 2001, and I don't think it will be now. I think
it will marketly slow soon, and pick up its long-term growth eventually, but not right away, and probably not so fast when it does again.

Per Texas A&M's assessments, they are known as "homers" and local boosters of the Texas economy in general. Just about
any national survey gives the conclusion that the entire sunbelt will feel a tightening of the local RE markets for some time
everywhere, including Texas. Put another way, I haven't seen any national survey yet that excludes Texas from the national
factors I just mentioned, particularly pertaining to funding sources.

[gigi927]

Originally Posted by scongress1234

A corollary situation is this: The largest real estate busts have been in this same sunbelt, from Vegas to southern cal to Phoenix to fla. Now that the funding that enabled this growth is drying up, perhaps for some time, where does Austin stand in this situation and geographical area, in that it relies on the same sources? Is Austin a special real estate market with its own unique funding sources? Can it stand alone as the financial sources dry up and shut down? I feel that the sunbelt itself, while in a very long term growth tangent, relies on hype far more than the other regions, and suffers accordingly higher highs and lower lows. Again, is Austin special and unique enough to buck these recent trends? It wasn't in 2001, and I don't think it will be now, but manybe its just me.

Having lived in Phoenix and worked as a realtor there, and now living in Austin, I can definitively say that Austin is much better protected from the big busts that Phoenix and Vegas experienced. The appreciation here in Austin has been MUCH more gradual and balanced and is nowhere near as volatile as what happened in those other markets. In Phoenix a typical 4 br 2 ba home in the suburbs was $250K one day and then a month later was selling for $325K. The only homes that stayed on the market more than about 10-14 days, literally, were homes that were backed to highways. I haven't seen anything like that craziness here.

I don't think the highs and lows in Phoenix and Vegas were due to hype. People came because the housing costs were low and the weather (to some) is good. Those are highly legitimate reasons to relocate somewhere. When the bust began, it wasn't as if people just started leaving en masse because Phoenix wasn't as good as it was made out to be. People are staying in Phoenix and the population continues to grow. But too many people got loans that they probably shouldn't have. There's a reason that "subprime" was chosen as the "word of 2007" somewhere in the media!

I think Austin is somewhat protected because it didn't experience that volatility and now that lenders have reined in their lending practices significantly, there is another measure in place to at least help Austin through a major downturn that Phoenix/Vegas didn't have. Just my perspective, though.