Buy house now or not (Austin, Georgetown: 2014, mortgage, how much)

[austin-steve]

Originally Posted by bluecloud1900

We are looking to buy in zip code 78717 and planning to stay long time. I am worried, when house prices falls then at that time, I may get house for cheaper than what I pay now. Any inputs on this?

Thanks

I can't really offer additional inputs. Fear is a powerful thing. If it controls you, it controls you. Life is full of risks. One can never fully know the future.

There are costs and risks to remaining a renter as well. You can be forced to move every year at the end of your lease (unless you rent an apartment), which over time adds up to quite a bit.

Good luck making the choice that's right for you.

[10scoachrick]

Originally Posted by bluecloud1900

We are looking to buy in zip code 78717 and planning to stay long time. I am worried, when house prices falls then at that time, I may get house for cheaper than what I pay now. Any inputs on this?

Thanks

You're looking in the wrong zip code if you want a bargain. Don't tell anyone what you paid and only you will know if you got the deal of the decade.

[riaelise]

You buy a house because you LOVE it, it fits your needs, and as Steve said it provides you and your family shelter! Houses are not investment vehicles. Any $ made is purely a bonus. Home prices rise and fall all the time. I'm absolutely certain I paid more than the seller for our house but who cares? I like the house and probably in the 20+ years we own it, the value will go up, down, or stay the same. Meanwhile, we'll be enjoying every day spent in it.

You don't want to overpay..I get that...so then shop around. You don't have to get a spanking new house. I'm sorry but a $500k 2,000 sq ft home in Pearson Place isn't going to become a $700k valued house in the next ten years. I'd hesitate before plunking down that amount of coin for that myself. Not when there are resales that are lower priced. A

[Trainwreck20]

Originally Posted by bluecloud1900

We are looking to buy in zip code 78717 and planning to stay long time. I am worried, when house prices falls then at that time, I may get house for cheaper than what I pay now. Any inputs on this?

Thanks

Make sure you compare the cost of not buying a house, as well - rent (with increases), possible moving costs/inconvenience, loss of some tax shelters, definitely no appreciation to go with that potential loss, etc.

[Leaving Arizona]

Originally Posted by 10scoachrick

You're looking in the wrong zip code if you want a bargain. Don't tell anyone what you paid and only you will know if you got the deal of the decade.

Was coming back to say this. I'm in this zip code right now until our house in 78633 is done - housing, new and existing, is crazy, and even rentals are hot hot hot and snapped up fast.

[CptnRn]

Originally Posted by bluecloud1900

We are looking to buy in zip code 78717 and planning to stay long time. I am worried, when house prices falls then at that time, I may get house for cheaper than what I pay now. Any inputs on this?

Thanks

Even during the last recession house prices did not fall by much and for not very long.

[10scoachrick]

Originally Posted by CptnRn

Even during the last recession house prices did not fall by much and for not very long.

Bit of a foggy stat there. It doesn't reflect the decrease in the price of a given house or even a given neighborhood; but simply indicates the median selling price of "a" home(or technically, the median price of 'all' homes sold during that time). In theory, a $50k average decrease in the selling price of $200k homes could be offset by the incremental increase in the selling price of homes at a higher price point.

Ah, statistics...can't live WITH them...can't live....

[CptnRn]

Well I can say that during that same time period there was only one year when the County tax appraisals on my house and my rental property decreased slightly. Every other year they were up, up, up.

P.S. I don't consider it foggy having lived here and watched the trends. I don't recall any broad range decreases in real estate prices during the last 10 years. As far as that goes, they have continuously increased since I moved here in 1977. Waiting to buy in hopes that prices may go down is a foolish gamble in my opinion.

I have followed the economic forcasts for this area for at least 20 years and have always found them to be pretty accurate. I have not seen a more recent update since this one in 2014 //www.city-data.com/forum/austi...l#post35107684

[CptnRn]

His next forcast is coming up:

http://www.bizjournals.com/austin/bl...respected.html

I'm llooking forward to hearing what Angelou has to say.

Austin’s Creative Home eagerly invites Austin business and community leaders for what has become the premiere networking event of the year, the 2016-2017 AngelouEconomics Austin Forecast, Tuesday, January 26, from 7:00AM- 10:30AM. Keynote speaker John E. Silvia, Ph.D., Managing Director and Chief Economist with Wells Fargo will focus on the Economics and the Credit Cycle: An Evolution over Time.
“Austinites and Texans will continue to receive the most accurate forecast! We will look at the challenges and opportunities that Austin faces as one of the fastest growing cities in the U.S. This is a chance for individuals to plan for their business in healthcare, hospitality, construction, engineering, and technology and to learn about new exciting opportunities available in Austin’s Economy”, said Angelou, chief economist at AngelouEconomics.

[austin-steve]

Originally Posted by CptnRn

...

As far as that goes, they have continuously increased since I moved here in 1977.

...

You might be forgetting 1986-1992. It was a pretty big real estate hit when we had the oil bust, S&L Crisis, and Reagan changed the tax laws that affected real estate in 1986. It was carnage and prices did fall by quite a bit. By 1992/93 it was back past the 1986 peak though.