Could 2016 be a drought year? (Spring, Combine: closing, live, storage)

[riaelise]

While I've been loving the pleasant 70 and 80 degree days in January and February, I can't help but take notice that these temperatures have been coupled with no perceptible rainfall in several months. I've lived here for over 12 years, but I still can't say that I know Texas weather patterns.


What I do know is that it doesn't seem normal to me to have 70s (at least more than a day here and there) in February. What do y'all think? Do dry years follow washout years?

[iamwayne]

Heck, with weather modification going around, who knows... Drought, down pours, etc... Just enjoy whatever we get.

For the skeptics on weather modification: http://csat.au.af.mil/2025/volume3/vol3ch15.pdf

[A-Tex]

I would count on it. Seems every time we have one of these monstrously big El Nino years, the subsequent winter is extremely mild. Then a drought comes and the following winter will be extremely cold. Enjoy this while you can.

[another_hot-day]

If you look at the long range Farmers Almanac up to October 2016, it says it will be a drought year ahead.
Bummer, I had high hopes with El Nino out there but it appears to be a dud.

But at least the Lake Travis is full. A full lake makes Summer totally tolerable.

[cBach]

Yes riaelise, I've been worrying about this.

It seemed that El Nino stopped in early January here. Last year was record rainfall even until the end of December. Since then we've gotten a pittance.

This pattern is like the pattern in 2011. Dry cold fronts which bring bone dry cold air with cold nights but mild days. The soil moisture has been rapidly decreasing and we should be worried. Going into March which is typically a rainier month, we better get some rainstorms or this will be harbingers of a very dry summer.

Today will be 72 with a dewpoint of 21! That is desert levels of humidity (Las Vegas). We need some moisture!

We haven't had a super hot and bone dry summer for a while so we're due for one but at least the lake is full. This spring will be telling. If we don't get the rain this spring the summer could be long, hot, and dry.

My predictions: extremely hot and dry summer 2016 with no rain, followed by an extremely cold winter in 2017 (last time the palm trees froze, it got down to 11 degrees) with a winter precipitation event.

[centralaustinite]

Yes. I have been preparing for drought. Got a nice layer of compost on my yard and beds in Oct/Nov and got lucky with timing with rain.

I plan to put down more compost this week and go ahead and use water to get it set in. I am also taking out turf in some areas and putting in mulch. Closing off sprinkler heads in other areas and going to gravel.

We haven't had a hard summer since 2011 and I think that this summer we are probably due.

[Trainwreck20]

Every year could be a drought year. Every year could be a flood year. We will find out soon enough .

In any case, the trees got a good dose of water this past year, so that is good.

[cBach]

Pushing 80 in February, will we be pushing 100 in April like I remember? Then 105 from mid May until late September. Get ready!

[pop251808]

What's the LCRA going to do with our lake water this Spring? Look at current lake levels and then dump it? Or, look at current weather patterns and conserve it?

[Trainwreck20]

Originally Posted by pop251808

What's the LCRA going to do with our lake water this Spring? Look at current lake levels and then dump it? Or, look at current weather patterns and conserve it?

I am guessing that they will follow their water management plan:
Water Management Plan for the Highland Lakes

The amounts of Interruptible Stored Water for LCRA’s Gulf Coast and Lakeside agricultural operations, and Pierce Ranch will be determined taking into consideration what Water Supply Condition is in effect: “Normal,” “Less Severe Drought,” or “Extraordinary Drought,” combined with the implementation of a look-ahead test;

Under the look-ahead test, LCRA will not begin releasing water for the non-Garwood operations for a Crop Season if the LCRA Board determines that the Combined Storage of lakes Buchanan and Travis would drop below 900,000 acre-feet in the upcoming Crop Season or below 600,000 acre-feet within 12 months; and LCRA will stop releasing Interruptible Stored Water for the Gulf Coast, Lakeside and Pierce Ranch agricultural operations in the middle of a Crop Season when the Combined Storage of lakes Buchanan and Travis drops below certain levels, whether or not the LCRA Board has declared of Drought Worse than Drought of Record.