Buying Clarksville condo?

[austin-steve]

Originally Posted by EMT139

I spent the weekend crunching numbers. It seems that I'd need at least a 3.8% yearly appreciation to break even if for whatever reason I need to sell in five years and 2.8% yearly appreciation to break even if I were to sell in ten year years. That's assuming no HOA fees and low maintenance costs (ca. $1.5k a year) but before any potential income from renting a spare room.

While buying would be doable, I'm starting to question if it is my best option financially at this point.

What is your cost of not buying, if you don't need to move for 5 years, or 10 years? Also, you're failing to give value to the non-monetary benefits of home ownership and the stability it provides (provided you are not "trapped" by the debt - which won't happen with 20% down)

I find, in my experience dealing with buyers, sellers, investors, renters, for over 25 years in Austin, the most financially successful and happy, are, counterintuitively, the ones who don't crunch numbers and put everything through deep spreadsheet analysis.

I'm actually one of those. I'm very analytical and capable of analysis, I just find it to be less reliable than my gut instinct, or that of those I trust. I've never run my deals through a spreadsheet. I know a good (or not good) buy when I see it, without a calculator.

Speadsheets and predictions cannot be reliably trusted because they are based on guesses. Garbage in, garbage out. This is why investors buy homes in "better cash flow" areas that grossly underperform the homes and areas that their spreadsheets rejected but which people like me advise over the "better cash flow" areas.

If you're going to think like an investor, then buy like a good one. That means ditching the spreadsheet and just asking yourself where you want to live, what you can afford, and what makes sense outside a spreadsheet analysis.

Good luck,

Steve

[EMT139]

Originally Posted by austin-steve

I find, in my experience dealing with buyers, sellers, investors, renters, for over 25 years in Austin, the most financially successful and happy, are, counterintuitively, the ones who don't crunch numbers and put everything through deep spreadsheet analysis.

Thanks for the advice, Steve. Very much appreciated! This would be my first home purchase (and large purchase in general since I don't even own a car), so I'm trying to understand what I'm getting into as much as I can.

I agree models are only as good as their assumptions and as a trained economist and someone who has in general trouble making decisions, I'm have the (bad) habit of putting everything into a spreadsheet to try to make sense of it. However, the more I see my spreadsheet, the more I agree with your approach -just go with my gut in a place that makes sense and can afford. The stability piece is does not play an important consideration in my life right now -I'm single and comfortable moving around as needed. But obviously, that can change any minute.

I'll post any properties I'm looking at once I reach that stage to get y'alls opinion.