Austin Market has truly gone to **** (Houston, Dallas: school, college, live)

[SummerGirl05]

Originally Posted by Need4Camaro

I think most of these buyers are not using a lender which is why they are able to compete with inflated prices as I imagine that would be much tougher to do with a bank, especially with waived appraisals. I’m not sure that interest rates will impact them. I think most people who are going to finance are staying put right now, that or being priced out by the influx of cash buyers.

This is true. What's happening is people are liquidating assets (or already have liquid cash) to be a "cash buyer". Once they close, they then get a mortgage and essentially pay themselves back.

My realtor told me I should do this. But there are a lot of tax implications involved if you have to sell off stock or borrow from 401k etc to do this.

[Austin97]

Originally Posted by austin-steve

You discount what I say by calling me a "Realtor" (I actually don't like most Realtors, save for the exceptionally outstanding ones I know, most are not good), then you go on to write what can only be called a bunch of ... uh ... "opinion". Pure rubbish. Cite your sources or admit that you're just sharing your "Opinion" and have no actual data to back it.

Yeah, I'm a real estate Broker (semi-Retired) but also a longterm investor in the Austin market. I've been here since 1985. I've seen the ups and downs, which we call "cycles". I've seen "irrational exuberance" and I know what it looks like. I have a data-based approach to my thinking and observations. I'm not "salesy" or trying to puff the market.

You might want to go back to the forum threads from 2008-2011 and read what the "chicken little" posters like you were saying about the Austin market back then, and what I was saying, and see what happened, and how stupid all of those prognostications about a crash look in retrospect. Lots of arm chair quarterbacking back then too. Meanwhile investors were scooping up homes languishing on the market that have far exceeded the expected appreciation.

I maintain that anyone who needs a house right now, and is ready, willing and able to buy one, will not benefit from "waiting" for "prices to drop". It ain't gonna happen. It is a structural impossibility from a production standpoint as well as many other measures.

Am I happy about the boom? No, not really, even though I am being enriched because I own properties (not selling any of them, keeping long term as they will continue to go up). I feel bad for my daughters, my friend's kids, other first time young buyers, as well as mid-career move-up families who are now priced out.

My "want" is that a balanced market exist where a median income earner can purchase a median value home. There are many reasons that no longer exists, but the Affordability train has left the station in Austin and is not coming back.

Anyhow, you go ahead and believe what you want. Go ahead and tell me what I'm getting wrong.

The part you are getting wrong is prices are increasing so fast and supply/demand are so imbalanced that 1) appraisals are not being met 2) appraisal and inspection waivers as standard 3) many/most houses selling for massively over asking

that will not hold and prices will drop from these levels. They might not drop to 2019 levels, but much of the pressure will be relieved once inventory goes back up. This might not be until 2022 depending on vaccinations this summer.

I would say waiting until the covid pressure is relieved would be a good move.

[CarnivalGal]

Originally Posted by BobPhipps

If these houses are either not being appraised or selling for significantly over appraised value, then I agree with you Camaro. In my old neck of the woods, houses used to easily go for $100k over asking fairly consistently (and the listed prices were typically right about the appraised value). It was a terrible situation for anyone that had a pre-approval on a loan. The banks refused to lend above the appraised amount, so that pre-approved buyer would need to come up with that extra $100k. It made it extremely difficult for anyone that didn't have cash to compete in the market. I literally saw families looking for homes for over a year. And we always knew when a home was up for sale because the neighborhood look like Grand Central Station. There were cars everywhere and no street parking whatsoever. It was not a good situation even for a credit worthy buyer unless they had a reserve of cash.

A Realtor friend has said that appraisals are absolutely not keeping up with sold prices. He was just talking about this last week and said people are having to bring at least $200K to the table at close. This was in Steiner, and that was referring to the entry level houses here. I'm sure it's even higher for the more expensive houses.

[ashbeeigh]

Just going to remind y'all of the million dollar half acre looks like an estate sale house in Manchaca to prove the point that things are ridiculous again. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5...29517430_zpid/

There's no way, even a cash buyer, would accept and pay 500k to meet the appraisal difference in this one. I could be wrong, but if this house was priced right it wouldn't have even been on the MLS for 12 hours before getting 20 something offers and selling for closer to 500k.

[Need4Camaro]

Originally Posted by ashbeeigh

Just going to remind y'all of the million dollar half acre looks like an estate sale house in Manchaca to prove the point that things are ridiculous again. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5...29517430_zpid/

There's no way, even a cash buyer, would accept and pay 500k to meet the appraisal difference in this one. I could be wrong, but if this house was priced right it wouldn't have even been on the MLS for 12 hours before getting 20 something offers and selling for closer to 500k.

He’s probably just testing the waters... seeing if he gets lucky. He’ll probably either reduce or take his home off the market after awhile.

[blakely]

Originally Posted by Need4Camaro

He’s probably just testing the waters... seeing if he gets lucky. He’ll probably either reduce or take his home off the market after awhile.

Exactly.

Keep in mind that Zillow is not a reputable source for home values, but this one clearly is priced high even for this insane market.

[Need4Camaro]

If it sells though I guess that means we all have $1,000,000 + properties...

[ashbeeigh]

Originally Posted by blakely

Exactly.

Keep in mind that Zillow is not a reputable source for home values, but this one clearly is priced high even for this insane market.

Someone had searched recent sales and said one a bit smaller sold for 442k recently, so 437k isn't too far off. This is a nice quiet (baring the train noise) area of Austin that still feels "out." It's easy to get to the new 45 toll and up to Mopac now. I see it getting a bitter more competitive down there, but the relative flat land and lack of "cool" stuff, like the Steiner area, I think will keep it from getting too crazy. I'm still baffled that someone would even attempt to put this type of house on the market for a million.

[Need4Camaro]

Originally Posted by ashbeeigh

Someone had searched recent sales and said one a bit smaller sold for 442k recently, so 437k isn't too far off. This is a nice quiet (baring the train noise) area of Austin that still feels "out." It's easy to get to the new 45 toll and up to Mopac now. I see it getting a bitter more competitive down there, but the relative flat land and lack of "cool" stuff, like the Steiner area, I think will keep it from getting too crazy. I'm still baffled that someone would even attempt to put this type of house on the market for a million.

Well FWIW if this were LA, SF, NYC, Boston, within the proximity of the city center it is from downtown Austin you would be within the $800k thru 1.2 Mil territory for that specific property.

[BobPhipps]

Originally Posted by Need4Camaro

Well FWIW if this were LA, SF, NYC, Boston, within the proximity of the city center it is from downtown Austin you would be within the $800k thru 1.2 Mil territory for that specific property.

Yep, our home (err....I mean shack) there goes for around $1.2 now and I laugh about it. Can't believe anyone would pay that much for it.