Recession hitting Austin full-force this year - American Statesman (Houston: rent, condo)

[thedude72]

That is true, but why Austin?

All said though, I am a grateful to be riding out this horrible economic hurricane in Austin and I do not begrudge anyone who wants to join us. Y'all never know, that newcomer might just be the one who plants the seeds of the next Google, the next Heliovolt, the next who-knows? The next thing that might just employ us all.

[HappyTexan]

We should not begrudge anyone for wanting to move here for better conditions.
Just be forewarned though that Austin is not Utopia. Layoffs and foreclosures are happening here just not as bad as other states.

We were late to the party but I'd say we have arrived. Pray we don't stay too long though !

[austin-steve]

It's tough. But, it is light-weight stuff compared to many other markets in the US.

That about sums it up. Everything is relative. Austin has lagged somewhat, but our dip will be shorter and more shallow, mainly because be don't have the housing crash element. Yes, we have softening in the real estate market (especially above $300K), but Austin had a relatively low number of sub-prime and other goofy loans that were all the rage elsewhere, and which resulted in housing price spikes that were not supported by economics.

One of my relatives in Austin just got laid off from IBM. Was making $80K. Found a new job in less than a week making $50K. Not his permanent replacement job, but he found it rather quickly with little effort, and it's sufficient to make ends meet while he does more serious job hunting.

I don't personally know anyone else who has lost a job. I hear about it, but it didn't hit home until it happened to someone close to me. I worried for about a week, and was shocked at how fast the new job was found.

Steve

[HappyTexan]

Several friends at both Dell and IBM that I know of got layed off recently. All are still looking for new jobs.

[jobert]

Originally Posted by nomore07

Could have fooled me. There are a few threads on this site from folks whose employers are transferring them from out of state.

My employer transferred me here because they needed employees badly. Yes, if you live in areas of declining population, that's nice if you're buying a house. For anything else, you're screwed. Texas is in the black with our fiscal budget, and we are not taking really any of the stimulus at this point. This lowers our obligation for repayment at a future date, and our economic health in the long run, people will pick up on this and realize they need to run with a winner especially if they plan on staying around. Would you rather plant roots in CA, where the 41 billion dollar shortfall marks the beginning of the end for everyone living there? The S.S. California is going down, and the rats are jumping ship. Texas is the closet thing to a life raft.

[mego65]

Austin is slowing down, but it is still a raft for a lot of people who's state hit bottom. You say that you know one or two people who have lost jobs. In CA I know at least 20 people who have lost a job. I only know a few people that are confident that they will have a job at the end of the year. Most of these people will not move, they can't they will just become one of another homeless families in our communities. In one of the many tent cities that we now have.

I am still working and my husband is still working. Neither of us are working full time, but we still have enough money put away to move before we loose the little that we have. Austin is not a last hope for us. It is something that we have always wanted to do, and now can and should do. I'm a teacher, and I'm willing to work with lower performing schools. I will find a job, as will my husband. We will not contribute to the unemployment rate, but we will help with the economy, as we buy a house, furniture, a new car, clothes and food. New growth may be what keeps Austin out of the spot other states are in.

[llkltk]

Don't buy into the doom and gloom. Austin and the rest of the country will be fine. We have avoided a depression, not going to happen. House prices continue to rise. Austin is fine, the media feeds on this stuff and if you believe it, you don't have faith in our country. It always rebounds. I don't know why people waste time worrying about this stuff, we still live WAY better than other countries. Would you rather live in Iran or Pakistan or Iraq? Our country is fine.

Originally Posted by inthecut

Did anyone actually read that article?....Its saying that Austin may soon experience
its biggest downturn EVER....not like the turn of the millenium, or even the 80's energy crunch recession......it's saying the downturn could be historic.......as we speak, the entire nation, from sea to shining sea, is experiencing a hard recession and financial implosion, with levels of debt, business and personal, not seen since the 30's.......and now that storm is blowing into Austin....and that frankly scares the bejesus out of many people, who don't care to think about it......

I'm not waxing hyberbolic here........and the large numbers of new Austin arrivals will easily jack the rate over the historic 6.7% mentioned in the article if it continues.....currently it's only 3 ticks away, at 6.4%........

Again, read that article in full, look at the numbers and forecasts in the same, and THEN tell us what you think.......without being personal....just address the issues and facts, as I am.........

[EmBee]

A quote from the article...

"The troubled Stanford Financial Group told state officials it's cutting 16 employees in Austin, 28 in Dallas and 297 at its main offices in Houston."

Uhmm... don't you mean closing the door of all your offices because of alleged scam practices?

[inthecut]

Originally Posted by centralaustinite

The issue? I am more than willing to address the issue of a deep L-shaped global depression with unprecedented collapse of demand, leading to painfully high unemployment, the collapse of a global currency, deflation in certain assets (real estate among them) and ultimately inflation in other assets. The trainwreck has already happened. It has been in motion for more than a year . . . I just usually don't come to city-data to talk about that . . . you'll find me obsessing over the Baltic Dry index, railroad traffic volume, the number of aircraft parked in the desert for storage, the drop in residential investment not to mention the zombie banks of Citi, BoA, etc on other blogs, just not here.

All said though, I am a grateful to be riding out this horrible economic hurricane in Austin and I do not begrudge anyone who wants to join us. Y'all never know, that newcomer might just be the one who plants the seeds of the next Google, the next Heliovolt, the next who-knows? The next thing that might just employ us all.

Keep the nurses, teachers, police officers, engineers, quality managers, logistics experts, lawyers, researchers, writers, coming!! (auto mechanics, plumbers, electricians, and yes busboys too) Bring 'em in! Smart people + tough times = innovation

People wanting to move to your area is not a problem in a global depression! We'll figure it out. Being stuck in an area that is emptying out . . . that is a problem.

But I would not minimize for a second the fact that things are going to get ugly, it is cold comfort to know that things will be much worse in other places.

Things are simply bad everywhere in the US now.....the prob with Austin is that it relies largely ON the growth you mention.......but if you want growth, solid growth that isn't going to just tax the infrastructure, you need a large bank of jobs.....Austin is very rarely over 4.7 per Unemployment Rate, which has been a large reason FOR the past few years of growth.....it can get weird here when it approaches 7% as it is now......that means that many jobs are being lost, and that the majority of relocatees are NOT bringing their own businesses with them, and ARE competing for wage/salaried positions with others......beyond the hype and hyperbole, you simply have a situation where the cultural meme has not caught up with reality per the Austin job market.....When the Austin UR reaches 7.0% and higher, prob within the next 3-4 months in Austin, that meme will fall apart of its own accord..........again, there simply aren't nearly enough jobs for the relocatees, and the word will get out soon enough about the same....

[inthecut]

Originally Posted by mego65

Austin is slowing down, but it is still a raft for a lot of people who's state hit bottom. You say that you know one or two people who have lost jobs. In CA I know at least 20 people who have lost a job. I only know a few people that are confident that they will have a job at the end of the year. Most of these people will not move, they can't they will just become one of another homeless families in our communities. In one of the many tent cities that we now have.

I am still working and my husband is still working. Neither of us are working full time, but we still have enough money put away to move before we loose the little that we have. Austin is not a last hope for us. It is something that we have always wanted to do, and now can and should do. I'm a teacher, and I'm willing to work with lower performing schools. I will find a job, as will my husband. We will not contribute to the unemployment rate, but we will help with the economy, as we buy a house, furniture, a new car, clothes and food. New growth may be what keeps Austin out of the spot other states are in.

It all depends on where Austin is headed, and where it is trending....it is trending downward per job growth right now....my question is, as this poster has mentioned, it can be very hard to put together a nest egg right now for many folks....they really have just one relo chance, and they
must make it a good one, before they lock into a rental lease and cash in their chips....Austin is known as a tough job market even in good times,
per the sheer number of people willing to move there....with that labor supply comes lower wages on average......they also have a large pool of college grads willing to work for little, along with a local economy largely based on public sector jobs, which take pull to get, and of which most are being frozen in place at the moment.......other, larger metros, such as Houston, Dallas, and such, amongst others, have far larger bases and opportunities......being that Austin itself is getting far more competitive, with growth a given, creating more competition, it might make more sense
for relocatees to try other places, if they are indeed economically displaced from the rust belt, California, etc........personally I don't think people have time to play around looking for employment in these tough times.....Austin is really in many ways a sacrifice, even in the best of times, and when Austin itself is feeling the pinch, this might not be the best time to move there if you don't have a guaranteed job waiting for you........essentially, you have one chance and shot......make sure its a good one is all.......