The coming hi-rise condo crash in Austin (Houston, Dallas: sale, 2013)

[Austin97]

Originally Posted by atxcio

Wow, how about that upcoming condo crash that someone predicted 2 years ago . Sure was a doozy.

If you go downtown often, you can actually see week by week these buildings filling up. More lights in the windows, more people in the restaurants, less parking. Heck, even seems like an entirely new restaurant opens downtown each week. It's impossible for a food junkie to keep up with them all.

I think it did come. There were multiple condo complexes that had to hold auctions and sold at significant discounts. The big projects had good financing and were able to hold prices. Since people in austin didnt really lose their jobs, the regular joe wasnt forced to sell and was able to hold on during that time.

Comparables in my neighborhood for my house were around 550K at the peak in 2008 (my neighbor across the street sold for 600K with about the same sq footage but with a pool). Our house just got appraised at around 450K.

[GlobalistPotato]

Originally Posted by atxcio

Wow, how about that upcoming condo crash that someone predicted 2 years ago . Sure was a doozy.

If you go downtown often, you can actually see week by week these buildings filling up. More lights in the windows, more people in the restaurants, less parking. Heck, even seems like an entirely new restaurant opens downtown each week. It's impossible for a food junkie to keep up with them all.

LOL. So if the condos are filling up and the crash isn't happening, then doesn't that mean this thread is outdated?

[atxcio]

Originally Posted by GlobalistPotato

LOL. So if the condos are filling up and the crash isn't happening, then doesn't that mean this thread is outdated?

It is outdated, sure. Look at the date of the original post. But that's what makes it so funny to read. Here's a gem from the OP:

So here's the proposition: the Austin luxury condo segment is going to get destroyed, with ultimate sales at <50% of current prices. Discuss.

There are actually quite a few doom & gloom prediction threads from 2008/2009 IIRC, it would be great to revisit more of them for fun...

[LittleCityATX]

The downtown condo market is just plain weird. There are 800sf condos at Spring available for around $260k while The Austonian and W are apparently trying to get 400k+ for the same sf (plus 480/mo in HOA fees!). Older condos seem to be going for 180k-ish in that area. I mean, I know the W/Austionian/4Seasons are nice, but that nice?! I just don't think that the price discovery is efficient in that area right now, so if you are paying top dollar you're taking a big risk.

The Austonian is trying to sell 2 bedroom apartments for a million bucks! If you want to burn a million to get a top floor condo in Austin then cool, but for a million you can get a condo in Manhattan near central park.

(Disclaimer: I could be wrong on some of these numbers, I don't know the downtown market that well and am not a Realtor.)

[GlobalistPotato]

Originally Posted by LittleCityATX

The Austonian is trying to sell 2 bedroom apartments for a million bucks! If you want to burn a million to get a top floor condo in Austin then cool, but for a million you can get a condo in Manhattan near central park.

(Disclaimer: I could be wrong on some of these numbers, I don't know the downtown market that well and am not a Realtor.)

And I thought inflation was bad...

Yeah. That sounds overpriced, but if there's a demand, it makes since.
Who's the people who thought there's a market for people who want to pay that price to live right in DT? There's houses in Central Austin neighborhoods that are probably just as good as the Austonian for much less of a price. And these types of houses I'm thinking of are just as "green" as a DT condo.

[LittleCityATX]

I found an article from 2007 that said the CHEAPEST thing at the Austonian was going to be 550K! I have no idea if they've sold any at that price, but hurray optimism on their part.... At that price it would cost around $4000/mo (10% down) to live there in whatever their smallest condo is.

[atxcio]

Originally Posted by LittleCityATX

I found an article from 2007 that said the CHEAPEST thing at the Austonian was going to be 550K! I have no idea if they've sold any at that price, but hurray optimism on their part.... At that price it would cost around $4000/mo (10% down) to live there in whatever their smallest condo is.

I don't know if they went up on the price, or just sold all those, but the cheapest unit in the Austonian on the MLS right now is over $1M (2BR, 1600 sqft, and it is pending). Listing Details (http://austinhomesearch.com/Search/Details.aspx?li=210609&or=1&cp=1 - broken link)

The others for sale are 3M and 5M.

I admit, I don't understand the ultra-high end condo market either. Especially with much cheaper units with essentially the same location. The price points in the Austonian are uncharted territory for condos in Austin. However, they aren't new price points to the Austin area overall -- many homes in Westlake and Tarrytown easily go for more than 3-5M.

[LittleCityATX]

Yeah a 2 bedroom for a cool buck, uh..pass. I think they are selling them very slowly and trying to hold their price line, but if you look at TCAD it looks like about 30 of the 200 units are sold at the moment.

[twange]

Originally Posted by LittleCityATX

Yeah a 2 bedroom for a cool buck, uh..pass. I think they are selling them very slowly and trying to hold their price line, but if you look at TCAD it looks like about 30 of the 200 units are sold at the moment.

Whether or not it's ridiculous for a 2-bedroom condo in Austin to sell for $1 million is irrelevant. Again, nobody's forcing anyone to buy one if they think the value is poor. If some is willing to pay for that - good for them.

I still don't understand why people get so enraged about condos in downtown. My only gripe is that I wish there was more downtown living available to middle class people. It would keep DT more interesting.

[JayBrown80]

Originally Posted by LittleCityATX

The Austonian is trying to sell 2 bedroom apartments for a million bucks! If you want to burn a million to get a top floor condo in Austin then cool, but for a million you can get a condo in Manhattan near central park.

(Disclaimer: I could be wrong on some of these numbers, I don't know the downtown market that well and am not a Realtor.)

LOL, oh my god, if only NYC apartments went for that much. It is pretty much impossible to get any apartment in Manhattan for under one million, even in an undesireable area. Unless you head up close to the Bronx around Inwood. Just looking online, most apartments I found in the cheapest place adjacent to Central Park (Harlem) is going for a cool 4.5 Million.

All real estate is controlled by the law of supply an demand. Developers sale for what consumers are willing to pay. Period. There has been no condo crash, other than the real estate crash that hit everything.