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Old 07-19-2009, 03:52 PM
 
Location: Austin
2,522 posts, read 6,035,657 times
Reputation: 707

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Quote:
Originally Posted by latikeriii View Post
I agree with the numbers being underestimated,
-underemployment
-transplants not eligible for unemployment benefits
-illegal workers being unemployed(decline of construction,etc)
-fraud like BentBow said

I just hope those top 10 lists will stop coming out so that people would stop moving there. It's not going to be a pretty picture in 5 years with a larger population and the same(or less) amount of jobs. An abundance of jobs in Austin are service-based too and that's the only sector that really will grow. High-tech will continue to decline as it is outsourced, Government will stay steady but there is very little turnover(baby boomers are delaying retirement), Education will grow a bit but there is a LOT of competition there. The other industries are not large enough to make a huge impact. I'm not a pessimest, but its not looking good for the future. Obviously, things will turn-around but will Austin's job market be able to absorb the highly educated expanding workforce? We shall see.

As long as people don't look at Austin as an escape from the national recession, it will be viable as a relo point.....prob is when people continue to come in in swarms as an escape from awful regional employment centers like the rust belt, Phoenix, Vegas, Florida, and California, expecting Austin to be a "Job Savior"......Austin certainly can't absorb every teacher downsized in California, every tech worker whose job has been eliminated, and so on......
The last poster mentioned the high % of low-paying service industry jobs in Austin.....The Austin Statesman just mentioned that hospitality was the only sector that grew jobs...that just means that people are continuing to eat out and drink, hence there are still busing, waitress, and bartending jobs out there.......some cities don't even have that, so we should be thankful, with no irony intended, that at least we have "crappy" jobs available in Austin to pay the bills till things pick up.....

And things will pick up in Austin...just not for a while yet....and growth will slow markedly before it does......just part of the growth cycle of the sunbelt cities is all, of which Austin is of course a part
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Old 07-19-2009, 10:04 PM
 
442 posts, read 1,578,455 times
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Well I was consdering Austin as a new home, and now that I've read this statistic...sounds like a great idea! Florida unemployment has hit 10.6% ;D
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Old 07-20-2009, 08:18 AM
 
Location: Austin
2,522 posts, read 6,035,657 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PrettyMissAshley View Post
Well I was consdering Austin as a new home, and now that I've read this statistic...sounds like a great idea! Florida unemployment has hit 10.6% ;D
No place to escape in the sunbelt, from California to the west, to Florida to the east........and I personally think it funny that an area that has over 7.1% unemployment would be considered a mecca unemployment rate for those other US areas famished...now THAT is Crazy!

Look for Austin's rate to be 10.6% by next year as well, if it grows 3% again this year with no job growth, but, then again, Florida's should be about 13% by that time, so it would still "sounds like a good idea"........how long can 3% lower than a snake-bit area "sound like a good idea" when the other area to run away to is in a recession as well?.......12 vs 15% UR?........15 VS 18% UR?........at over 7%, that's high for any metro, especially one growing so fast, and adding so fast to the job rolls without growing jobs......

As I said, people will continue to stream in the next 12 months at the same rate, and, if jobs flatline again during the same time, we will have 9.5-10%
Unemployment......for perspective on that, that's about where florida is now itself........that growth could cause Austin to surpass Dallas and Houston with the highest UR in Texas as well, with their slower metro growth rates......

To sum, the high pop growth rate singlehandedly created the jump in UR the last 12 months, as only 900 net jobs were lost.......that's what caused Charlotte and Las Vegas to shoot up, and its doing the same thing in Austin......

Last edited by inthecut; 07-20-2009 at 08:32 AM..
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Old 07-20-2009, 08:48 AM
 
Location: Austin
2,522 posts, read 6,035,657 times
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Today's Paper......see what I said?.....and again, think of the math.....Austin downturn + Pop growth = 10% UR rate next year.........


Article.....

Austin keeps growing in the downturn (http://www.statesman.com/business/content/business/stories/other/2009/07/20/0720newaustin.html - broken link)

From the article:
"Some economists say they also could create pressure on the region's job market. The local unemployment rate spiked in June to 7.1 percent, and the region has begun to lose jobs.
Robinson said some of the new residents are seeking cover from a tougher economy elsewhere."

"The Central Texas unemployment rate last month was 7.1 percent, the highest in at least 20 years, and tech companies have cut thousands of manufacturing jobs. "Rising unemployment here is a real concern if we continue to see stronger-than-expected population growth," he said."

They WILL bring some spending money, another reason why the hospitality industry is humming........and sure, some, will have their own internet-based jobs.......but the vast majority will be looking for employment....and the internet-based job industry is suffering from the recession as well, so that isn't even a guarantee that internet-based self-employment is making any money now.....

Last edited by inthecut; 07-20-2009 at 09:02 AM..
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Old 07-20-2009, 09:01 AM
 
Location: Austin, TX
16,787 posts, read 49,052,964 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by inthecut View Post
To sum, the high pop growth rate singlehandedly created the jump in UR the last 12 months, as only 900 net jobs were lost.......that's what caused Charlotte and Las Vegas to shoot up, and its doing the same thing in Austin......
I don't believe that Texas counts in its unemployment rate, the people who moved here hoping to find work and have not. You have to work in Texas for at least 4-5 quarters to qualify for unemployment, among other requirements. So I can't imagine they would count anyone in the Unemployment Rate who doesn't qualify for unemployment.
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Old 07-20-2009, 09:40 AM
 
Location: Austin
2,522 posts, read 6,035,657 times
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Interesting post from a reader of the stateman on-line today...

"Californias success brought its failure, the same could happen in Texas. California is the 5th largest economy in the world, but as the word spread it brought too many people there looking for a better life. At some point you cannot sustain any more growth. Austin has finite water, a road system that has limits, and cannot possibly grow as fast as its reputation until the overall economy of the country grows, somebody has to buy its products. The influx of workers will make it an easy start-up city for business, not because of low taxes as much as low priced labor. More people always will keep salaries low, this has worked forever in Austin, they graduate 10 to 15 thousand people a year and a good portion of them stay when they can find work."
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Old 07-20-2009, 11:24 AM
 
844 posts, read 2,019,744 times
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Quote:
I don't believe that Texas counts in its unemployment rate, the people who moved here hoping to find work and have not. You have to work in Texas for at least 4-5 quarters to qualify for unemployment, among other requirements. So I can't imagine they would count anyone in the Unemployment Rate who doesn't qualify for unemployment.
The relocators may not count as they don't qualify for unemployment, but they do add to unemployment by being in competition with folks who were already here and making it more difficult for them to find jobs.
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Old 07-20-2009, 01:11 PM
 
Location: Round Rock, TX
1,317 posts, read 4,056,819 times
Reputation: 766
Quote:
Originally Posted by kiacook View Post
The relocators may not count as they don't qualify for unemployment, but they do add to unemployment by being in competition with folks who were already here and making it more difficult for them to find jobs.
Yeah, and I wish to thank them, since I'm not having any luck out here trying to find a job...
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Old 07-21-2009, 02:42 PM
 
434 posts, read 1,080,590 times
Reputation: 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by inthecut View Post
Austin unemployment hits 7.1% - Austin Business Journal:

Per the above article, what would you folks read into this? Let's stay away from national politics this time, as moderators seem to frown upon it...again, just on the local situation....

I said that I was curious as to whether relos would continue to come to Austin when it topped 7% unemployment about 4 months ago, and now it just has.....would that indicate the same to you? Can a city with such a high influx of newcomers absorb the same with a 7%+ UR, even if it is 2-5 ticks lower than the hardest bit states and national average?

Or are we just shuffling people and problems to where they will fester everywhere equally?

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Per the Austin Statesman article yesterday...

But that came to a halt last month, when the region had 1,200 fewer jobs than it did in June 2008, a decline of 0.2 percent, the commission reported Friday.
"It would be very shocking if that were the extent of the weakness," said Keith Phillips, senior economist and policy adviser with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' San Antonio branch.
Phillips said he expects the loss figure to be higher when researchers get more detailed information, such as job cuts at smaller technology firms. The monthly figure is an estimate based on a survey of a sampling of employers in an area. The Austin-area unemployment rate was up from 6.2 percent in May and 4.5 percent in June 2008. "The recession has come to Central Texas," said Terry Clower, associate director of the Center for Economic Development at the University of North Texas. "We are seeing economic pain to a magnitude that we have not seen for probably about 20 years."

Keep in mind that we have just, according to the first sentence, begun to LOSE jobs on a year-to-year basis......Again, what happens when a metro that is losing jobs has the largest population growth rate in the USA? Does that trend continue? Do people relocating here know this yet?
Wait till the figure goes double-digit ... in a year or two!
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Old 07-21-2009, 02:52 PM
 
Location: Austin
2,522 posts, read 6,035,657 times
Reputation: 707
No, I don't think it will get higher in Austin than 8.5%..but will get to be about that in 6-9 months per the rapid growth of job rolls per relos.......than it should level off, as the "moving here" slows down apace......all comes down to two simple variables...how many people move here, and how many new jobs are added to the total pie here in Austin.....
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