Why is every day 7-15 degrees below forecasted temperature? (Houston: how much, vs)

[veloman777]

It seems every day lately it's been significantly colder than what was forecasted.


And how abnormal are 40s in December in Austin? I know the average high is suppose to be 62, so in theory, we should be getting 80 degree days to make up for the past 10 days?

I moved here to be warm!

[hoffdano]

They really missed the mark yesterday but I think the cold front took an unexpected turn. They have also missed on precipitation a bit lately - we have had some days where they said light rain and we had much more.

But I don't think they are doing any worse than usual.

These temps are about 15 degrees colder than normal.

[inthecut]

Originally Posted by veloman777

It seems every day lately it's been significantly colder than what was forecasted.


And how abnormal are 40s in December in Austin? I know the average high is suppose to be 62, so in theory, we should be getting 80 degree days to make up for the past 10 days?

I moved here to be warm!

Well, though Austin can often get low 70-ish daytime temps in the winter, it is not a regular thing. I would say at least once/twice a week from mid-dec to late feb, you will get a 70-ish day sneaking in, but you can go without one for several weeks as well. Austin's winter nights are almost always colder than mid-50's, and often 30-49 as well. Again, not uncommon to get several weeks of nighttime lows not getting out of the 40's in the winter.

You will see winter jackets on Austin residents most of the winter as well, like any other northern city you may have "escaped from", not to mention that your blood thins out here, and low 50's starts feeling nippy at night, not to mention 40's........

If you moved here for the weather, South Florida or Southern California, with its Mediterranean clime, might have been a better choice. Do I need to mention that we have Barstow-like heat for a good part of our summer as well?

Austin is on the edge of the Mexican Desert High Plateau section of North America, extending upward from northern Mexico and southern Texas, and gets some pretty harsh weather in its own way, and should never be seen as a "weather escape" such as Florida, and other places......that being said, spring and fall do give us 6 months of heavenly weather here in Austin, and what more can you ask for than that?

[centralaustinite]

This is the coldest December I can remember and I've been here 19 years! Usually, some of our most gorgeous weather is in December -- crisp mornings, warm afternoons, clear blue skies!

Don't know what happened! Usually, (it seems to me) there is a cold front or two in November with rain and cold but then December is beautiful and most of January too with cold fronts and freezes returning in waves in February.

[AustinSpartan]

Sadly, these are the results of Global Warming. Get used to it. Stop driving or your winters will be forever cold here in Austin!

[love roses]

This isn't the coldest December I remember here and I've only been in the Austin area 4 1/2 yrs (Denver and Houston previously). We can get snowy or icy days in January and February.

[RowdysMom]

It is colder, earlier, than usual this year. We do have cold days like this throughout the winter, every winter, but usually it doesn't start this early, nor does it last this long. Just remember, it is supposed to be in the 70's this weekend, so hang on for a few more days!

[HappyTexan]

We are in an odd place on the map. Canadian air from the north vs tropical air from the gulf.
The stronger wind wins and that's how our weather can turn on a dime.

One day shorts and the next gloves and scarfs.

BTW..I hear it will be near 70 on Sunday !

[Moonlady]

This year El Nino is to blame. I think it's harder for the computer forecast models to comprehend it.

[JayBrown80]

Originally Posted by Moonlady

This year El Nino is to blame. I think it's harder for the computer forecast models to comprehend it.

El Nino is a huge factor. As is the fact that we had A mild winter last year and a pretty mild summer, compared to what we have had in the past. Mild summers in Austin can still get to 100 and above.

I have found, the real indicator of temperature, is how much sun we get. It's winter, so it's on the colder side, but if also happens to be overcast, then forget it. Sunlight can raise the temperature 10 degrees easily. The last few days have been cloudy, so they have been colder. Weathermen are lousy at predicting cloud cover, so they are not always right in their forecasts.

That's why in the summer, it's cooler to stand in the shade. Yesterday I was walking into a doctors office. It was crisp, in the parking lot, very nice. However, when I got underneath the porch of the office, and the shade was blocking the sun, it was a NOTICEABLE difference. In the sun, I didn't notice there was a chilly wind, you can bet I noticed it when I got under the porch.

Does anyone remember when Weathermen stopped making predictions and started making forecasts? I remember they used to be called predictions.