Austin new home starts...what's the outlook? (Santa Rosa, Reno: fit in, real estate)

[bluesboy63]

Hi all!

Have found this forum very useful....thank you. My question is, what is your opinion on the current and future of the housing industry in Austin? Why am I asking?

I have worked for an empolyee owned construction supply for the last 24 years. We specialize in servicing the custom home builders. We made our name over the years supplying mulit million dollar homes in Lake Tahoe but through our website, in recent years, we have expanded our reach throughout the country. Being based in Reno, NV and Santa Rosa, CA we have felt the brunt of the downturn. We get a ton of orders online from Texas so we are looking to possibly take a chance and open a store in Austin. I would be the one making this leap so I was wondering what feedback y'all (see how I'm trying to fit in already) could offer.

Is there a custom home market, say Lake Travis for instance? What besides commercial and government work is out there? Those are fine, but we specialize in price and service and they seem to be about price only. Also what part of Austin has the most growth.

My family is really excited to make the move to Austin should it happen. Yes, I'm adding to your ever expanding population base but at least I'm trying to bring jobs with me and not take them from someone else right?

Me...I have 12 year old twins, I've been a very popular blues guitarist here in Reno for years, and I've heard nothing but great things about your wonderful city.

[TheyCallMeDerek]

bluesboy63, Austin hasn't experienced as large a downturn as alot of places out there. The mortgage and general economic national financial issues did touch us though. Custom homebuilders depending on the pricepoint have fared pretty good. There's one I've heard of that has had some quality issues lately, I think in trying to cut cost they've sacrificed their good name. Lake Travis is always nice, there's been a new mall built out there and the growth in the last couple of years has been pretty impressive.

I myself am a drummer who has played with a few popular rock, country and Americana bands (of course cover bands also). Tons of places to play around here!

[hoffdano]

The economy is showing signs of improving - based mostly on limited data and some anecdotal (my own eyes) information. Western Travis county is projected for continued growth for years to come. That includes much of the south shore of Lake Travis. There are a number of developments that are slowly getting off the ground.

There is still land available and some of it will be acreage lots. Buyers of these lots are likely to build custom homes. I can't however give you much more meaningful "facts."

[bluesboy63]

Thanks for the quick replies! I REALLY want to make this business move. I know no one has a crystal ball and there's heavy competition anywhere you go these days. I know things will take a couple of years of slow growth and I'm willing to put in the time. Our business plan has worked very well for us for over 30 years here in Nevada. I just don't want to be the last one to the party if you know what I mean and from what I hear the party's coming to Austin. The rest of the country has no idea how bad it really is here in Nevada and California. My house which appraised for $670,000 in 2007 sold in 2009 for $309,000. Entire neighborhoods of houses sitting empty. Empty commercial and office complexes everywhere. The multi-millionaires with cash to build at Lake Tahoe at severly reduced rates are the only thing keeping us alive.

[CptnRn]

//www.city-data.com/forum/austi...ns-august.html

//www.city-data.com/forum/austi...truggling.html

//www.city-data.com/forum/austi...ml#post8096704

Housing shortage may cause home values to rise by 2011 (http://impactnews.com/southwest-austin/news/3404-housing-shortage-may-cause-home-values-to-rise-by-2011 - broken link)

[bluesboy63]

Thanks for the links CPTNRN. Though they sound bad I'll take those numbers over what we're dealing with here. The one thing to keep in mind is that Austin, as is Reno, is a desirable place to live. Good times or bad, people will still want to move there. Like I said in my original post I'd like to create some jobs rather than take some. It would be a rough go but I'd rather go down fighting than bleeding a slow death here.

[verybadgnome]

Originally Posted by bluesboy63

My family is really excited to make the move to Austin should it happen. Yes, I'm adding to your ever expanding population base but at least I'm trying to bring jobs with me and not take them from someone else right?

The problem isn't so much the number of people coming here but rather where they'll be living and working. Too many have come here with a tolerance for 1 hours commutes and they add to the problems of sprawl and an overstressed transportation system. They live in areas where the extremely low density makes public transit unfeasible and then they complain about having to pay road tolls. Of course not saying you are like this............

[bluesboy63]

I hear ya and believe me, I have no tolerance for long commutes. One thing we'll be looking for is a close proximity to where the business ends up. I'm well aware of the traffic situation there. We're spoiled here in Reno. Pretty much takes 20 minutes to get anywhere but then again, we're only 300,000 people. If I had it my way I'd live as downtown as I could get but I have kids and schools will also be our main concern at this point.

You know, California ruined Nevada. There was never any salary base to support the housing prices. Just the Californians selling their overpriced real estate then the developers here driving up home prices and taking as much of that equity as possible. This truly was a great place to live but now it's gone. It will literally be years before we will recover.

[Exiled Texan]

You know, California ruined Nevada. There was never any salary base to support the housing prices. Just the Californians selling their overpriced real estate then the developers here driving up home prices and taking as much of that equity as possible. This truly was a great place to live but now it's gone. It will literally be years before we will recover.

You know, many here strongly believe you could say the same about Austin. Me? I think there is some truth to it. 300,000 people sounds lovely to me.

[eileenkeeney]

I have no tolerance for long commutes either.

I was way spoiled before I had to move to Austin.
I was able to own a house
- without any deed restrictions beyond the normal city zoning stuff
- 1 mile from work,
- 3 blocks to a bus stop,
- about 2/3 mile from a decent grocery store,
- maybe half a mile from a hospital and medical clinic.
- I could get downtown by bus in 20 minutes.

Now if I live in walking distance of work I have
- deed restrictions
- no major grocery store in walking distance
- It takes 1 hour and 50 minutes to get to the nearest hospital (by bus) although it is only maybe 3 miles away
- It takes about an hour and a half to get downtown (by bus).

Not that any of this is necessarily bad, I was just spoiled before I moved here.
I wish I did have more tolerance for a long commute.