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A reasonable article in NY Times about the approach to testing in many countries. The importance of testing. It shows up in the data we can see in various countries. Australia at this point is third in the world for testing per capita.
Quote:
Scientists around the world were waiting at their computers in early January when China released the coronavirus genetic code, the blueprint for creating tests and vaccines. Within days, labs from Hong Kong to Berlin had designed tests and shared their research with others.
Within about two weeks, Australia had its own tests, and even citizens in the most far-flung regions of the country could be tested. Laboratories in Singapore and South Korea ramped up test kit production and ordered extra supplies. That quick work allowed them to test hundreds of thousands of people, isolate the sick and — so far, at least — contain the spread of the disease.
By contrast, anxious citizens in the United States and many parts of Western Europe have endured byzantine delays, or have been denied testing altogether. As the coronavirus pandemic shuts down world capitals and paralyzes entire economies, political leaders are rushing to make testing more widely available.
But experts say that the decisive moment, when aggressive testing might have allowed officials to stay ahead of the disease, passed more than a month ago. It was not a question of science. Researchers say a viral test is relatively easy to develop. Rather, scientists say, the chasm between the testing haves and have-nots reflects politics, public health strategies and, in some cases, blunders.
The world may be paying for those missteps right now. Testing is central to the effort to fight the spread of the virus. Countries that test widely can isolate infected people and prevent or slow new infections. Without early and widespread testing, health officials and policymakers will be flying blind, epidemiologists say.
...
‘This Could Be a Problem’
From the beginning, some countries showed greater urgency than others and were more nimble in their response.
Australia, Korea and Singapore turned to networks of public and private laboratories to develop tests. On Feb. 4, the South Korean government granted fast-track approval for a company’s coronavirus test and began shipping kits. A second company was approved a week later. Two more soon followed.
Australian labs designed a generic test in early January, then refined it after receiving the genome. “We were anticipating early on that we could see cases, that this could be a problem,” said Dr. Jen Kok, a government virologist in New South Wales, Australia, a region where more than 33,000 people have been tested so far.
The United States and Britain favored a centralized approach. Britain initially assigned a single lab in north London to perform the tests but, a month later, began allowing other labs to do the same.
The C.D.C. had to reverse course, too. After its homegrown test proved faulty, it cost the country valuable time. The Trump administration then had to change tactics, urging outside labs and manufacturers to help make a million tests available.
...
Labs that moved quickly had an advantage. They purchased extra testing products, known as reagents, that extract viral RNA from nose or throat swab samples. Those reagents are now in short supply.
“It’s the way we do things here,” said Dr. David Speers, the top microbiologist at PathWest Laboratory Medicine, the government laboratory in Western Australia. “We always try to plan ahead.”
Technical speed and laboratory organization, though, do not explain everything. The availability of testing — at least in some countries — also reflects policy.
When Australia identified its first coronavirus patient in late January, political leaders made clear that testing would be widespread. “We’re testing people,” Dr. Kerry Chant, the top public health official in New South Wales, said on Jan. 30. “We’re asking people to come forward, and I want to acknowledge the fact that we have had so many people come forward for testing.”
...
Testing can be as much a political issue as a scientific one.
Italy, the site of the biggest outbreak outside China, is a prime example. At first, regional authorities in the north tested widely and tried to trace contacts with sick people. But the national government in Rome objected, saying there was no need to test people who did not exhibit symptoms.
“Someone said we’re testing too many people and this is why we have such a huge number. That is not true,” Giovanni Rezza, director of the department of infectious diseases at the Italian National Institute of Health.
Under pressure, the regional governments began testing only patients who exhibited symptoms. Politicians and scientists continue to debate those protocols, Dr. Rezza said. Still, the country has managed to test more than 182,000 people.
No. Italy had ample time to control this. They didn't. Italy's first death was one month ago. A time when China was already under severe lock down. You don't need to be an epidemiologist to work out that it was probably serious at that point, if the world's factory was shutting all its factories. China bought the world an extra month to prepare. Some countries (SK, Singapore, Taiwan, HK, Japan and to a lesser extent Australia and Germany) got proactive. Others, including most of Europe and the US, did not. That is a public health failing on a massive scale.
Well as Italy was the first country to feel the impact, more likely not. It was thought of as more a Chinese disease in the early stages then Asian.
North Italian thinking is that it was brought in by the considerable Chinese interaction within the region. Probably right in saying more could have been done earlier, but no messing around later. Like a wildfire it didn't take long to ignite.
We'll see how Australia goes. No school shutdown. Most of Europe has realised the importance of that. It was only yesterday, that gyms and pubs and the like were closed. Libraries today. In WA at any rate. Hardly world leading stuff. More in tune with other countries already implementing a shut down. Will a lock down now follow?
A reasonable article in NY Times about the approach to testing in many countries. The importance of testing. It shows up in the data we can see in various countries. Australia at this point is third in the world for testing per capita.
God I'm ****ing sick of "we're the next italy" shut the **** up
We've implemented a ton of measures way before they did anything
Gday Mate. I love your country.
Maybe you don't know what's going on in New York and Washington State here? It's spreading like wild fire where we live now.
We are like Italy in two states and we are behind the curve by a couple of weeks here. I hope your country learns from Italy and us and manages to shut it down faster than we did. Stay safe. Take this seriously. Go on the WHO's website and read about this. No need for hostility, but knowledge.
Italy now closing on ten thousand deaths. USA appears to have lost control. Trump wants folk back at work after Easter? UK doesn't look good. Just how does London Transport be allowed to operate Tube services as they apparently do? Makes a mockery of social distance.
Italy now closing on ten thousand deaths. USA appears to have lost control. Trump wants folk back at work after Easter? UK doesn't look good. Just how does London Transport be allowed to operate Tube services as they apparently do? Makes a mockery of social distance.
Ideally, yes, he does, but he's said such a decision will be made based on the data on the ground.
And the US is not losing control. What would make you write that?
The US has tested more people than any other country; if Italy or China tested as many people, they'd have a much higher infection rate. At some point, though, it doesn't make sense to keep testing. Rather, you have to shut things down, encourage social distancing, and issue work from home orders, etc., testing only those who show certain symptoms and present themselves to the hospital.
It has been a long time since a pandemic of this virulence.
I have seen mention of the Spanish Flu, which Wikipedia has dated from January 1918 to December 1920. Killing a quarter of the global population at the time.
But only a small number of very elderly people would have memories of that pandemic.
Last edited by Tim Randal Walker; 03-28-2020 at 01:29 PM..
Ideally, yes, he does, but he's said such a decision will be made based on the data on the ground.
And the US is not losing control. What would make you write that?
The US has tested more people than any other country; if Italy or China tested as many people, they'd have a much higher infection rate. At some point, though, it doesn't make sense to keep testing. Rather, you have to shut things down, encourage social distancing, and issue work from home orders, etc., testing only those who show certain symptoms and present themselves to the hospital.
US had conducted fewest tests on a per capita basis compared to many comparable countries at least until a week and a half ago. It has been ramped up over the recent week or so.
There have been serious questions posed as to just how the American health system will cope if numbers increase as appear to be doing.
But America is number one in actual number of recorded cases. Possibly not exactly the desired result in leading the pack though.
On a personal level I have cancelled going to New York and New England and Canada this coming summer.
It has been a long time since a pandemic of this virulence.
I have seen mention of the Spanish Flu, which Wikipedia has dated from January 1918 to December 1920. Killing a quarter of the global population at the time.
But only a small number of very elderly people would have memories of that pandemic.
I wonder how many Australians were affected by the Spanish Flu. Wiki mentions that 12,000 Australians perished in the pandemic but no mention of positive cases. Presumably back then most who were afflicted would die, right?
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