Will Melbourne still overtake Sydney? after it recovers from COVID (rent, home)

[usuariodeldia]

Sorry, another thread started from me. But I am genuinely interested in how COVID will affect Melbourne in the long term. There is no doubt that it's the epicentre of coronavirus in Australia and the only place that is in under lockdown right now. 4 more weeks (under lockdown) to go but I heard from the Premier that it could be extended, generating a deficit in the economy. I also heard on the news that many businesses will close down for good. I think that the best things that Melbourne offer are being hit very hard; Culture, nightlife, arts, restaurants. Since everything is shut down at the moment. Now, I am wondering about the implications that this will bring into Melbourne's growth. Melbourne was having the highest growth, overtaking already Sydney. Another thing that can be concerning is that Melbourne was building a lot of high rises and offices and with the economic crisis, the scenarios are scary. Melbourne was set to become Australia's largest city in the next decades.

Do you think that Melbourne will recover rapidly? or will COVID generate big repercussions for the growth of the city?

[RogerTheDoger]

I think your question is premature, the whole world is changing and none of us know what the outcome will be. For a start Australia has been relying on population growth to stimulate the economy, but with two thirds of that growth coming from migration and with most of the rest of the world in a far worse situation covid wise, I would expect it will be a long time till ports open and migration starts again.

A vaccine would make a difference but present indications are that the development of a successful vaccine with long term immunity is unlikely. Tests on those who have recovered show only a low level of antibodies. The stimulation of antibody production is essential for any vaccine to become successful.

[BCC_1]

I think Melbourne will take longer to recover. There's a lot of high rise stuff in the centre of the city but who's going to want to live there now? With Zoom etc I think we're going to see more people choosing to live outside cities.

Originally Posted by RogerTheDoger

A vaccine would make a difference but present indications are that the development of a successful vaccine with long term immunity is unlikely. Tests on those who have recovered show only a low level of antibodies. The stimulation of antibody production is essential for any vaccine to become successful.

They actually show the opposite. It's creating antibody and T cell response. T cells create long lasting multi-year immunity. The phase II trials of the Oxford vaccine indicate likely success in the current phase III trials and they expect to have some dosages ready to go in October.

[RogerTheDoger]

Originally Posted by BCC_1

They actually show the opposite. It's creating antibody and T cell response. T cells create long lasting multi-year immunity. The phase II trials of the Oxford vaccine indicate likely success in the current phase III trials and they expect to have some dosages ready to go in October.

OK so we each heard conflicting reports, who knows which is correct?

[BCC_1]

Originally Posted by RogerTheDoger

OK so we each heard conflicting reports, who knows which is correct?

The people developing the vaccines and running the trials are saying they are confident. Plenty of wombats speculating in the media who have no particular skill-set that makes them well informed. The likely scenario is that by next year we have multiple vaccines. The University of Queensland and CSL believe by next July their vaccine that is in development will be available to all Australians. The Oxford vaccine will have 2 billion doses available in the first 12 months.

[usuariodeldia]

Originally Posted by BCC_1

I think Melbourne will take longer to recover. There's a lot of high rise stuff in the centre of the city but who's going to want to live there now? With Zoom etc I think we're going to see more people choosing to live outside cities.
.

That’s what I think so too. They were building a lot of office towers in central Melbourne (more than in Sydney I believe). For instance, everyone in my workplace has been working from home since March and they are now thinking to downside the office space Area because people are going to work from home some days permanently. This will save a LOT of money to the company in rent prices.

[RogerTheDoger]

Originally Posted by BCC_1

Plenty of wombats speculating in the media who have no particular skill-set that makes them well informed.

Not sure why you made that comment in response to my post, it seems derogatory. My post referred to limited antibodies in recovered actual suffers as reported by medical authorities, while yours refer to creation of antibody and T cell response in those vaccinated by an experimental vaccine which suggests they may have achieved protection, but that is only academic at this stage, there is no proof of protection yet.

[MarisaAnna]

The question is an interesting one but I do not think things will change overall when this is behind us. Some people were already working from home, some were being pressured to do so, like it or not, way before this virus hit. I know many people who hate WFH and loathe Zoom. I know some who like it.

I do not know Melbourne well enough to comment but I do not believe inner city Sydney will be less desirable because of people who do WFH. DD lives in the inner east and all the urban facilities are much more accessible than where we live, much further out. Her family can walk to Centennial Park, the Entertainment Quarter, Bondi Junction, some of the beaches, etc. Randwick Racecourse is down the road, the Cricket ground is up the road. Huge selection of good public and private schools nearby. The only have one car and SIL goes by bicycle when he needs to go into the city for work. DD is now going in a few days and if she works late and gets a cab, she is home in ten minutes.

I imagine the same applies in inner parts of Melbourne. People will continue to be drawn to the facilities and jobs there. Being a little cheaper than Sydney will still provide somewhat of a pull factor. Victoria will have endless studies if what went wrong but people have a short memory.

[BCC_1]

Originally Posted by RogerTheDoger

Not sure why you made that comment in response to my post, it seems derogatory.

Why would you find it derogatory? Are you regularly asked for your opinion on this by media outlets?

Originally Posted by RogerTheDoger;58738953E

suggests they may have achieved protection, but that is only academic at this stage, there is no proof of protection yet.

It's a bit more than academic. I would assume those running the studies have a better understanding of how vaccines work than you or me. I'll continue to be informed by them.

[usuariodeldia]

So this article says that projects under construction in Melbourne are the most viewed and searched by overseas property seekers, which means Melbourne could recover fast. Investment = money for the city.

There are some more interesting projects going under way over there than in Sydney.

https://www.realestate.com.au/insigh...ook%3Ainsights