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The cost of a restoration is so high and getting higher only very special cars with low production numbers will be worth it. Knowing which car to invest in is not easy...For example a 2002 stang GT even though a nice car is going to take at least 50 years to be worth more than what it is today..
There already are specialist outfits in the automotive electronics biz who are rebuilding/repairing ... and even upgrading ... the ECM's of the 70's, 80's, and 90's for car lines where the OEM stuff had inadequate componentry and high failure rates. These outfits started with Bosch, VDO and other euro car components and have since gone on with domestic and asian brands. Some of these outfits have been in business since the 1980's ... I know, I helped one of the leaders move out of the dwindling main frame computer support biz to automotive electronics rebuilding. It proved to be a very big business for them with the euro cars; at one point, they had over 60 employees.
I have no doubt that the technology, components, and proprietary information is out in the marketplace today and will be available for the forseeable future. There's more than several EE's, tuners and techs who have reverse engineered these items and have made it their stock in trade today. There's a fair number of outfits who have figured out the programming and you see where they've entered the marketplace with replacement chips for performance enhancements, too. It's not going to go away, these folks will seek out the markets that pay them for their knowledge and products ... if it's restorations, they'll be there.
Only time will tell... electronics from the cars of the 80's and 90's are a totally different beast than from that of modern vehicles. Driven by stringent emission standards and desire to digitize every function of the vehicle the modern automotive electronic network is highly complex.
You have to realize that electronics are no longer just used for drivetrain control.. its becoming standard practice for steering/suspension control, HVAC/cabin comfort and a myriad of sensors for anything you can think of. I would estimate the electronics wiring for a modern luxury car would probably amount to anywhere from 50-100lbs.
You have to realize that electronics are no longer just used for drivetrain control.. its becoming standard practice for steering/suspension control, HVAC/cabin comfort and a myriad of sensors for anything you can think of. I would estimate the electronics wiring for a modern luxury car would probably amount to anywhere from 50-100lbs.
Actually, the amount of wiring has gone down with the advent of multiplexing.
I wonder how many cars of the 80s and up will be restorable due to a lack of plastics for the interior. Unless a car is highly desirable, no one is going to make a kick panel or C pillar trim for one of those cars. Most of the cars from the 80's up that I see in the wrecking yards have sun damaged interior trim.
I also wonder about the availability of Gasoline in the future. With the increasing number of hybrids, Gas may become more scarce. Not in the next 5 or 10 years, but certainly in 20 years things will be very different.
Only time will tell... electronics from the cars of the 80's and 90's are a totally different beast than from that of modern vehicles. Driven by stringent emission standards and desire to digitize every function of the vehicle the modern automotive electronic network is highly complex.
You have to realize that electronics are no longer just used for drivetrain control.. its becoming standard practice for steering/suspension control, HVAC/cabin comfort and a myriad of sensors for anything you can think of. I would estimate the electronics wiring for a modern luxury car would probably amount to anywhere from 50-100lbs.
I well understand the electronics in all of the various applications ... ranging from cruise, climate, mirrors, seat positions, transmission, FI, engine management, steering/suspension, brakes, and any other misc functions you can think of that are in these cars ... as well as the earlier, more basic functioning F/I computers that first hit the industry from Bosch.
As I pointed out, there are outfits already in the business rebuilding, remanufacturing (to ISO 2001 standards!), and repairing all of these computerized electronics as market demand dictates. We started doing this in the 1980's, and there's been a host of other outfits that have been successful in the same marketplace.
What part of the aftermarket automotive electronics business don't you understand already exists? The alarm that you're sounding about the scarcity for these items is moot ... people with the appropriate engineering, technical, and production backgrounds are in the business TODAY.
I think the best, so far uncollected, vehicles are the 80's MB coupes, the 560SEC and the 300CE, especially the Euro versions which were close to as fast as the muscle cars. A 325hp 560SEC will walk a stock GTO once you get over about 60mph and you can get in one of these cars and wind it up to 155mph and hear the stereo. Many of these cars are in great condition already as opposed to their Detroit counterparts. A restorable 560SEC with 100,000 on the clock can be had for $4,000 to 10,000. A total museum version might get as high as $25,000 in new condition with 50,000 miles or less.
Actually, the amount of wiring has gone down with the advent of multiplexing.
I wonder how many cars of the 80s and up will be restorable due to a lack of plastics for the interior. Unless a car is highly desirable, no one is going to make a kick panel or C pillar trim for one of those cars. Most of the cars from the 80's up that I see in the wrecking yards have sun damaged interior trim.
I also wonder about the availability of Gasoline in the future. With the increasing number of hybrids, Gas may become more scarce. Not in the next 5 or 10 years, but certainly in 20 years things will be very different.
Curly
We've been facing the same issues of plastics in the general aviation industry, which is a much more limited demand market than car restoration will ever be.
With modern repair materials, several outfits have been able to do superb repairs to damaged panels as needed. Undetectable repairs to broken trim pieces is the standard, and the cost still beats buying brand NOS parts when and where available.
Some items have long been in demand to a point where the aftermarket has made patterns and molds and recreated parts to a better quality level than the original items.
What amazes me on this thread is all the issues of concern that folk seem to be coming up with as obstacles to resto work ... while being ignorant of the fact that the materials, techniques, skill levels, and businesses are already in place that do exactly these types of work. When you're looking at a valuable finished product in the resto business ... there will be people who can and will perform the needed work to make it happen.
Look, for example, at the restoration tire business. There's a host of tire sizes and styles which have long been out of regular production, but a couple of specialty tire manufacturers catering to the resto/antique business have bought the old molds or made new ones to meet the demand for that limited production. Need new tires for your Model T? No problem. Same for so many other cars of years gone by. These same folk will be in business to supply the demand for the valuable resto cars of the future.
Similarly, we used to hear about "irreplaceable" parts for bespoke cars restorations of the teens, twenties, thirties, and forties ... and when the need arose, skilled craftsman got the job done. Castings and fabricated parts were recreated as needed, metal work was re-done, fabrics and any other misc part of these cars were fabricated ... sometimes from scratch. As long as the final product was valuable enough in the marketplace, the costs of achieving the results were justified. To the point that I've seen collector cars modified to replicate an even rarer model of their type ... just to increase the value of the finished restored car. The production records kept were so poor that an expert cannot tell you that a given car wasn't built to a trim/option level that it now has ....
On fuels ... right now, we've found newly recoverable extensive oil deposits right here in the USA which can provide substantial resources for many years. The limitation is not the extraction, but the politics of denial and development of these resources. If you've been watching, the Fed has been locking up a lot of lands from development for a host of reasons. I don't want to change this thread to an enviro discussion, but it's painfully obvious to those of us who own mineral/oil rights on lands in the West what the political agenda is at this time. There's a lot of oil here. RIGHT NOW, the deposits in Wyoming are adequate to supply over 20% of the imported oil demand for the USA ... the recent finds are larger than the reserves of the Middle East ... and this is just one area of development in the USA. In any event, substantial work is in progress now for bio fuels of far greater efficiency than corn based ethanols ... the aviation industry is aggressively pursuing such fuel development now. They've already done proof of concept flights with a replacement for Jet A, and there's a couple of outfits with replacement fuel for 100LL gasoline. Given the amount of coal reserves that the USA has in Wyoming alone, there's the ability to run coal gasification plants for liquid fuel replacement for gasoline for many decades ... and that's proven, available today, technology. If raw petroleum cost rises to a point where it's feasible to replace it with other technologies, they will be here to serve the marketplace. Keep in mind that certain markets drive the fuel industry more than others ... trucking, railroad, construction, farming, power generation, and heavy aviation use consume kerosene through diesel oil fuels ... a by-product of that fuel production is gasoline. While the folk who advocate personal transport powered by elecricity have a niche ... I haven't seen any fuel (except propane) which is going to run my farm tractors; think about it, we all still need to eat ....
true but the market will dictate aftermarket ecm and elecronics rebuilding companies. If there is a market there wil be a supplier.
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Originally Posted by Lux Hauler
One thing you are disregarding... electronics. No way in hell will the aftermarket be able to keep up with unique electronics from one vehicle to the next. It isn't like you can just toil at the work bench for a few hours and rebuild an ECM, its impossible. There will need to be electronics manufacturers dedicated to totally remanufacturing and programming these components. Also if these companies are unable to acquire the intellectual property necessary to replicate these parts then they will have to provide universal systems...
Sorry, but to do full restorations 40 years from now on the cars of today you will need probably at the least someone with an electrical and/or computer engineering degree at your disposal. At home garage full restorations will prove extremely challenging... the best way I see possible is to scavenge for electronics now and store them away.
The cost of a restoration is so high and getting higher only very special cars with low production numbers will be worth it. Knowing which car to invest in is not easy...For example a 2002 stang GT even though a nice car is going to take at least 50 years to be worth more than what it is today..
20 years is the normal cycle. Take for example the 87 Grand National. They were 17-18k new and 20 years later that where they were.. Now they are above that figure..
I think the Japanese "muscle" cars from the late-80s to mid-90s (e.g., 300ZX, Supra, 300GT, RX-7) will become popular among collectors and the object of restoration.
Similarly, we used to hear about "irreplaceable" parts for bespoke cars restorations of the teens, twenties, thirties, and forties ... and when the need arose, skilled craftsman got the job done. Castings and fabricated parts were recreated as needed, metal work was re-done, fabrics and any other misc part of these cars were fabricated ... sometimes from scratch. As long as the final product was valuable enough in the marketplace, the costs of achieving the results were justified. To the point that I've seen collector cars modified to replicate an even rarer model of their type ... just to increase the value of the finished restored car. The production records kept were so poor that an expert cannot tell you that a given car wasn't built to a trim/option level that it now has ....
This is my concern, while you continue to point out that automotive electronics have been remanufactured since the 80's, but for myself it is not convincing... much of their business likely comes from daily drivers on the road, not from restorations. Of course there will always be craftsman around to re-engineer and rebuild however the manufacture of mechanical components is much different from that of electronics where a fabrication plant is required, not some shop down the street.
Maybe you can enlighten me but I would wager that in conjunction with off the shelf microprocessors, auto manufacturers are using proprietary chip designs that will disappear once the demand is gone.
We can go back and forth but there is no definitive way to know. Simply because electronic systems have only been around for a half century and their integration in automobiles only about half that time...
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