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Automobiles are in a slow sure decline............
"This whole “peak car” may be more than just a sustainability nut’s fantasy. We’ve seen time after time that young people are souring on car culture and finding other ways to get around and connect with friends. We know that the suburban sprawl that fueled the rise of the automobile is in decline. And now The Economist – no treehugging lefty publication – is listing off reason after reason why the trend of declining driving — “peak car,” they call it — is here to stay."
Let's hope so. Less traffic on the roads for those of us that love cars/driving.
Agreed. Driving in/out of San Francisco or trying to cross the Bay Bridge during peak times is an absolute nightmare around here. Off peak times I can get into the center of the city from the Peninsula where I live in under 25 minutes. That turns into an hour commute during rush hour and the distance is under 15 miles!
Automobiles are in a slow sure decline............
"This whole “peak car” may be more than just a sustainability nut’s fantasy. We’ve seen time after time that young people are souring on car culture and finding other ways to get around and connect with friends. We know that the suburban sprawl that fueled the rise of the automobile is in decline. And now The Economist – no treehugging lefty publication – is listing off reason after reason why the trend of declining driving — “peak car,” they call it — is here to stay."
Young people are souring on cars, it is true. But I don't think it has anything to do with a desire to stay stuck in the house or dependent on friends/family/bus drivers to get around. It has to do with the truly asinine procedures and sky-high costs that make putting a teenage driver on the road almost impossible these days.
A new driver must first get a written. OK. Then have the parent devote dozens, if not hundreds of hours, to spend time driving with the 16 year old over the next three to six months. Then a couple driver's ed courses, which probably carry a hefty price tag. Then a provisional license. Then a second provisional. God forbid you get a ticket during that first year and a half, because you better start over. Then finally, at 17-18, you're free. I'm glad I got my license about a month before they phased in that graduated crap in Kentucky at the time.
And don't get me started on insurance. I freely admit that most 16 year olds will, upon reaching the first corner, understeer into a tree. But the insurance premiums often exceed the value of the car, sometimes many times over.
"Two and a half thousand pounds is fifteen times more than the value of the car... What you're saying is, I'm going to write it off completely fifteen times a year."
I distinctly remember buying bare-minimum liability only insurance. And the yearly premium, at 16-17, was more than the car was worth. The premium continued to rise as I got older, despite hunting for a better deal and a perfect driving record to this day. Finally moved to USAA at 21 and mercifully they cut me a good deal.
Plus, the used car market has gone the way of the dodo between Cash for Clunkers and the economy generally - depriving a lot of 16 year olds the first cars they may have otherwise driven.
I can see why today's 16-20 year olds quite frankly can't afford to drive a car these days. Especially with the scarcity of low-end jobs that would have kept these kids and their beaters on the road for years to come. I worked through most of high school and college, and the lion's share of that paycheck went towards gas, maintenance, and insurance. I can't fathom someone trying to do it without the steady stream of jobs I kept up.
Make cars affordable again, and they'll hit the road. Hard.
Although yes, there are segments of the population, and some cities in particular where car ownership is not about to skyrocket, I would not be so quick to put private vehicle ownership and operation in it's grave either.
If I lived in Toronto, NYC, etc, I probably would not want the cost or hassle of owning a car. However, I don't live in those places. Buffalo has public transit, but it is limited in schedule and places you can go. Very inconvenient for most. Parking is ample, and free anywhere but downtown. You can drive anywhere in the metro area within 20 minutes, even in rush hour. Nobody wants to walk or bike the 5 months of the year it is freezing, icy, snowy, windy, and inhospitable outside.
Without huge public subsidy, the public transit won't be improved. People will own personal transportation for a LONG time here.
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