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Old 09-28-2013, 03:31 AM
 
Location: Scranton
1,384 posts, read 3,182,969 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lvoc View Post
I still expect the first thing with full autonomous operation will obviously be long range trucking. Sterile environ, expensive equipment, bit payoff. May initially appear in convoys or such with a single human supervisor. But it is really the obvious and big payoff.
And just like that, hundreds of thousands of truck drivers, bus drivers, taxi drivers, and delivery drivers will find themselves without a job. And along with them will go the truck stops, restaurants, and hotels that cater to them.
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Old 09-28-2013, 09:25 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trucker7 View Post
And just like that, hundreds of thousands of truck drivers, bus drivers, taxi drivers, and delivery drivers will find themselves without a job. And along with them will go the truck stops, restaurants, and hotels that cater to them.
Yeah...like the fighter pilot the last long haul truck driver has been born.

I expect the local delivery driver and the bus driver will last longer. More tasks than simply operating the vehicle.
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Old 09-28-2013, 11:07 AM
 
Location: Here
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trucker7 View Post
And just like that, hundreds of thousands of truck drivers, bus drivers, taxi drivers, and delivery drivers will find themselves without a job. And along with them will go the truck stops, restaurants, and hotels that cater to them.
Some customers need the truck driver to unload the merchandise/delivery, some do it themselves. There may be an integration period in trucking which may include a few of the following:
XX - not all trucking companies will become autonomous right away
XX -some, maybe only a few, trucking companies will not become autonomous at all (that is unless it becomes a financial strain for them or laws require it)
XX -some, maybe all companies may make drivers go through a babysitting period where they allow the autonomous trucks to complete the entire route, and they are only there to work out the kinks and to prevent any problems

Positives is this may create positions that I envision as "regional unloaders". Some customers of trucking, like for example retail stores or restaurants don't have crews that would be willing to step inside a truck and unload it. Their current way is waiting at the end of the truck with their carts/dollys and receiving the boxes from the driver. Some don't even touch the boxes until it's time to open them in the stock room. In fact, I think it's not allowed in some cases, to step inside the truck or help unload in any way, probably for liability purposes.
Maybe there will be regional unloaders for a trucking company that cover an area, say the West side of Chicago and meet the trucks at the store at the designated time and unload them, then after that 30 minutes or hour is done, they go on to a different business that their company serves a few blocks away and unload that truck. They could work from home as they don't need to be on the road, and they'd still be paid well since it is manual labor to unload trucks. How well...I don't know.


I suppose the same transition period would also happen with bus drivers, taxi drivers, and delivery drivers. Some questions for these though:
XX - How will scofflaws be dealt with in public transit buses and taxis? Without a driver, people could board without paying.
XX + My thought is after the door opens in the bus, there could be a gate or barrier where the yellow line is and the rider would have to scan in to the bus with a card and after they pass, it closes for the next person. They would also scan out of the bus. And some buses already have cameras, but possibly enhancing their quality and maybe adding a few more which would deter people from trying to get on from the back door....and instead of drivers, they'd employ people to watch cameras and if someone is trying to enter without paying, they could signal the rear door to not open, and also the front door until they went away, or notify police.
XX + Also with taxis they could have a system where you slide your card and they would hold $1 similar to how the gas stations work or enter cash as a deposit, like $20 and it spits back cash if you use less or makes you pay more (this could be done by stopping the car and waiting for you to put more money or just completing the route and locking the doors so you cant get out until you pay the remainder)
XX + Or another thought is bus stops could operate like train stops think of a larger bus stop with two possible openings. where you have to pay to get into the stop in one opening and then when the bus arrives, the door of the bus and the other opening of the stop connect...think space tunnel between two ships..



XX - School buses...I'm not sure how parents would feel about there not being an adult watching the kids on the bus, and this could be for several reasons..maybe just a fear of not having a supervisor, or that someone could get on the bus that could be a threat or they just don't think it's safe...Cameras could curb this...but definitely still would be an issue.

XX - Delivery drivers...customers would have to go down to the car from now on to get it...unless they are also creating robots at this time...
XX + They could outfit the car with a locking heater/freezer that opens when you put cash in it or slide your card for payment...and the car would wait up to a max of 5 minutes for you to make sure your order is right...if it's not, you have to put it back in the car and the car will make a come back trip. Of course cameras would have to be used ...




Jobs...
Truck drivers - touched on that already
Delivery drivers - a lot of times (no stats) they are part time workers and lower paid workers, even with tip. I doubt the impact, whether through transition or abrupt, on a loss of this position would be anything worth noting.
Taxi drivers / Bus drivers - These two would probably be hit the worst if the drivers weren't needed. Though like I mentioned, I believe there would be a transition period.


The major issue is letting workers know. It's very easy to stay where you're comfortable but maybe if you had notice, you could plan. Those that know and receive numerous notifications, "We are downsizing systematically over the next year, please plan accordingly" and still do nothing...and there would be many of them, just too bad SOL if you didn't acknowledge it.

XX ++ The creation of autonomous infrastructure requires workers, a job that won't be autonomous until they create sophisticated robots that can do manual labor, construction, and building and not cost more than what construction workers make (including the robot manufacture cost + cost to maintain yearly).

List of possible job creations with autonomous vehicles that doesn't include automaker/OEM jobs
XX - Construction worker for roadways, and sidewalks
XX - Construction worker to build or modify offices/warehouses/storage lots that deal with watching, monitoring, and storing these vehicles
XX - Personnel to watch these autonomous units, control them remotely, dispatch them accordingly
XX - Personnel to clean them and charge / fuel them


While trucker7 you mentioned that hotels and restaurants would suffer, I believe truck stops would still be around, maybe modified or maybe a new kind of truck stop would appear where trucks would have to be fueled / charged. Unless they find a way to do this autonomously as well.
But these places would need workers to build or modify them to such capacity.


Whew...that's a lot..Just my random thoughts..
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Old 09-28-2013, 12:02 PM
 
Location: Mountain Home, ID
1,956 posts, read 3,645,615 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kanhawk View Post
The rational part of my brain understands that but the irrational part would likely freak out just sitting there while the car drove itself on a high mountain road with giant drop offs, even though the computer might actually be more safe than my own driving. Maybe it has something to do with survival instinct. A computer doesn't have one and doesn't care whether it lives or dies so I have trouble trusting it in such a situation.
I don't think I'd have much problem letting a driverless car drive me around a city.
Cars may not be alive, but they can still have self-preservation programming. Like any machine, they'll just do what they're programmed to do and I'm sure they will be programmed to avoid accidents. No manufacturer is going to create a suicidal car.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trucker7 View Post
And just like that, hundreds of thousands of truck drivers, bus drivers, taxi drivers, and delivery drivers will find themselves without a job. And along with them will go the truck stops, restaurants, and hotels that cater to them.
You mean like the garbage workers? Used to be a driver and two guys to dump the trash containers. Now there's one guy and a truck that picks up and dumps the containers with a loading arm.

There will be an adjustment period, sure. But just like any industry hit with changes, some will prosper and some will go out of business. The smart ones will shift their attention to attracting regular travelers. There will always be convenience stores, restaurants and hotels because cars will still need to stop for fuel and people will still need food and rest.
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Old 09-28-2013, 12:36 PM
 
1,963 posts, read 5,635,950 times
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I think driverless cars would be a savior for LA's stop and go traffic nightmare. There are stretches of freeways where you're literally crawling along at 5~10mph for 60 to 90 minutes! What they could do is dedicate a lane (like the HOV lane) for automated vehicles with some kind of auto-merge function to get in and out of the lane as you approach your offramp.
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Old 12-03-2013, 09:38 PM
 
Location: Northeast Tennessee
7,305 posts, read 28,282,804 times
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Personally, I think Nissan needs to focus on their trucks and premium sedan. The Titan is extremely outdated, as is the Frontier. The Titan has been the same since 2004!! The Maxima is also getting quite outdated.
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Old 01-03-2014, 02:10 PM
 
Location: Here
2,754 posts, read 7,441,452 times
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As some people are still skeptical, I believe that forces will be at work to bring autonomous vehicles in mass market.
You have to look at how the benefits will bring demand up.
Convenience - This is a given. Less stress for people when commuting

http://www.autonews.com/article/2013...#axzz2pN6BDKyl

Safety - People do not want to die. Plain and simple. If two similarly priced vehicles has everything in common, yet one is safer by double or even by 50%, do you really think people wouldn't want the safer one?

Cost savings to the whole country
Excerpt:
Self-driving cars offer more than added convenience during a driver's work commute. . Widespread use of fully autonomous vehicles could slash annual costs related to road accidents by $488 billion and save $158 billion in fuel costs as part of $1.3 trillion in total savings for the U.S., according to a recent Morgan Stanley study. Get enough of them on the road, and you might even reduce traffic jams or end highway congestion.
Self-Driving Cars Gain Backing of U.S. Regulators - IEEE Spectrum

But in my opinion, not only will states save money, consumers will also save money if insurance payouts become much less; the trend will have to force insurance companies to charge less on premiums.

I do disagree about the congestion though. Congestion will still exist due to the routes people take staying the same. Unless there is a yet unknown effect autonomous vehicles will have on where people live and work.

--

A recent study by IHS shows that there will be 54 million autonomous/self-driving vehicles on the road by 2035.
Study: Self-driving car sales will explode




--
One other thing I thought about was that perhaps self-driving cars will pave the way for flying vehicles, since you take the driver out of the equation. That'd be about 10 times more infrastructure and legislation than just self-driving cars by themselves though.
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Old 01-03-2014, 02:17 PM
 
Location: Wartrace,TN
8,121 posts, read 12,859,376 times
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I think an automated car would be great.
1) People with long commutes would be able to take that time back and be productive.
2) People who are addicted to cell phones and texting would no longer endanger other motorists.
3)Drunks could make it home safely without endangering other motorists.
4)Need to pick the kids up somewhere? Send the car.

The biggest thing in my mind is that a driverless car would enable elderly people to remain at home and still have mobility to get groceries and go to the doctors office.

Me? If I had to commute I would buy a driverless custom van and put a bed in the back. I would sleep on my way to work.
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Old 01-03-2014, 03:47 PM
 
7,934 posts, read 8,615,270 times
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Cars that drive themselves...still trying to wrap my head around the "why" and "who cares" aspect of this. You have to sit there and do something anyway, and I kind of like driving for it's enjoyment aspects. Maybe if you could sit in the back and pretend you have a chauffeur?

Star Trek transporters...now there's a market. Dinner in Paris? Why yes.
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