Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
34,712 posts, read 58,054,000 times
Reputation: 46182
Advertisements
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yosh01
Yes, and unless we as a people concentrate our R&D dollars, using government as a vehicle, to develop better battery technology, we'll be buying these high tech batteries from China and other countries that are heavily subsidizing this technology development TODAY.
I advocate Hybrids and Electrics should ONLY be focused to Commercial applications to allow 24/7 testing and service + best bang for the buck ecologically, and a write down for companies to help fund development. Also many commercial vehicles will have storage space, HD suspension and bodies and regular maint that would vastly improve the development cycle and cost reductions.
Why would a car that gets used 20 min / day be expected to drive down costs and improve technology in any great fashion? Slow way to do it.. (and expensive).
The car buying public is a tricky thing. Fickle in many respects, predictable in few, we say we want one thing and then we buy another. What do we want? We want environmentally friendly smaller cars. When do we want it? We want it now. What do we buy? Pickup trucks.
Year in, year out on both sides of the border, pickup trucks – specifically the Ford F-150 – drives away with top-seller honours. Not just in trucks; in vehicles, period. Get an hour outside any of the major cities and it makes more sense, with people needing a vehicle that will do triple duty for work, recreation and less-civilized terrain. But increasingly, these pickup trucks are just as luxurious as any leather-wombed BMW or Cadillac.
What do we want? We want it all. What will we buy? We’re still not sure. When will we buy it? We’ll let you know.
As other have stated... when I can get range (in all seasons) and recharge time more comparable to a petroleum fueled car I will buy, but not until then. Much of the public agrees.
If you read all the thread you will see that is imminent.
The headline for the article that opened this thread, and the OP itself, were somewhat misleading, and most of the posters didn't seem to read the article anyway. What it actually reported was:
Quote:
Sales of all electrified cars totaled 408,516 vehicles between January and August, down just a tick from the 408,694 vehicles sold during the same period last year.
Of that total, the bigger percentage gain came in plug-in hybrids, which grew from 28,241 vehicles sold to 40,748. Battery-powered EVs -- with no gas engine at all -- also grew, from 29,917 vehicles sold to 40,349.
In other words, it is the straight ICE hybrids, like the Prius, which merely use electrics to improve gas mileage, which are down in sales; while plug-in hybrids, like the Volt, which primarily run on battery; and pure battery EVs, like the Tesla, sales are up.
And the comment in the article about Tesla sales being down last month are deceptive, as the factory was shut down for retooling, and they don't record sales until the cars are shipped. The reason they were retooling the factory was to increase their production rate, because they are still running a waiting list for the Model S, they already have orders for all production through the end of the year, and and they already have deposits booked on the new SUV model to be released next year.
And lets keep in mind the reason for Tesla building a new $5 Billion battery factory in Nevada, as announced yesterday by the Governor of Nevada, is because batteries are THE production constraint right now. Tesla can't build cars any faster than they can obtain batteries, and getting the cost down is key to getting the Model 3 on the market at around $40,000 in 2017. The new factory is expected to knock about a third off the cost of the batteries, and allow for 10X the production rate on cars.
And to hit a couple of the other stray thoughts flying around...
Old EV batteries aren't headed for the landfills. Recycling the old ones is a key element of the new Tesla battery factory design.
I'm sure Panasonic, Tesla's partner on the new battery factory, will be bringing the latest technology to the party, so batteries from the new factory will predictably be lighter and more powerful than the current generation. And whenever they can get the new technology developed by Stanford into the mix... graphene wrapped pure lithium electrodes... the size of batteries needed will shrink even more and power capacity will go up.
In addition Toyota and other companies will be bringing hydrogen fuel cell EVs to market next year, so you'll see even more pull away from pollution emitting petroleum powered vehicles, especially in the huge Southern California market.
The mistake that commenters frequently make here is to say that because EVs don't fit their own personal needs they won't amount to anything much. Yet the entire automobile market is made up of many very different niches, and no single car can satisfy them all. But Tesla alone is already outselling several of the luxury imports in its price range... combined! So its future actually seems very bright.
All electric cars are very trendy, but I think that until they make economic sense they will be limited.
A Prius hybrid doesn't make economic sense, but the differential between a Prius and a car that makes economic sense is much smaller than between a Nissan Leaf or a Tesla and the equivalent gasoline car.
What could change the equation is communities where gasoline powered vehicles are prohibited. I don't know if a developer will take a chance on something like that in the next five years. I think that these apartments where you drive up to your front door might take a chance and permit only electric vehicles.
Like all cars, they fill a niche area, and the demand from that niche will eventually lead to a large enough segment to support the market.
Many cars do not make any economic sense, yet people still purchase them, many items people purchase are not purchased with economic sense in mind; so that argument is moot from an economic utility standpoint.
The greatest challenge for an electric car to overcome is it has to be an equal or better replacement to a conventional car. This is how the car replaced the horse, it was a better product.
In the near future, electric cars will have their place in high density areas. These are short commutes, and the infrastructure would be easier to install and maintain. The only issues are residences; I mentioned this in another thread before, but numerous condo and apartment buildings have zero allotment for allowing charging stations to be constructed in their parking garages, and even expressly forbid the charging of electric cars. Given how many people in urban areas live in condos and apartments, for electric cars to ever get a viable foothold, this hurdle has to be cleared. It is difficult to say to people they should buy an electric car, but yet they have no way of charging it at home.
The two car scenario is perfect, while I would never have an electric car as my only car (I take plenty of long trips), I would not mind having one as a second car if I was to have a second car, and if I thought it would be more satisfying than another type of second car, like a sports car or classic.
The UK and other countries are full of hybrid buses. The biggest land vehicle in the world is powered by electric motors.
Hybrids and electric work great for mass trans because mass trans is a predictable, routine route; not much per day mileage and time on the road is going to ever change with them, versus a private individual who will have far more unpredictable and non-routine mileage and time driving.
If a bus is known to be driving 100 miles for 5 hours, then it is easy to ensure the bus always is able to meet this standard. But for the private individual, it is difficult to say you drive 10 miles to work one day, but then what if you want to take a 200 mile trip this weekend, oh yes, a 45 mile side trip because there is a point of interest close by, oh yes, when getting back home, run to the grocery store and a department store for some items.
But for the private individual, it is difficult to say you drive 10 miles to work one day, but then what if you want to take a 200 mile trip this weekend, oh yes, a 45 mile side trip because there is a point of interest close by, oh yes, when getting back home, run to the grocery store and a department store for some items.
Facts are our friends. The Teslas S with the premium battery has a 300 mile range, so it could do that now.
And it will only get better. Batteries are getting smaller, lighter, and cheaper, and there is new technology coming very soon which will accelerate that trend.
I don't know what the answer to this is because I can't seem to get a reliable answer of how much oil is left.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
