Will Millennials love of the "sharing economy", high debtload, and disinterest in classic cars cause their prices tofall (manual transmission, SUVs)
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Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
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. disinterest in classic cars cause their prices to fall
No Worries my friend..... Do you know how many 'foriegn' people are buying USA classic cars? How many 18 - 20 yr olds in USA do you know that are making $20 - $25/ hr just out of High School with no skills or experience? That is prevailing wage for many in Australia and NZ, and they are NUTZ over USA cars. I met several people throughout the world that have been scooping up USA classic cars for yrs. The car shows I visit while traveling the world have pristine cars from all over the world, and no shortage of USA offerings.
The WORLD is a huge marketplace, and just as we (USA) have given away our high skilled and high paying jobs, and strong economy and military... so will flow our assets and collectables. Millennials have GREATLY contributed to the transfer of wealth. Just ask a few how much they know about car or manufacturing skills. Better yet, go try and hire one to do a FULL day's skilled WORK... (Without them txting all day)
Poof. - GONE are USA Capital goods, then jobs, then the expertise / machinery suppliers, followed by material suppliers (steel and plastics), finally entire USA companies fled, now we are being raped and pillaged.
Hang on! (And seek cover)
*This yr I am packaging up 10 vintage motorcyles for export / sales overseas. (None are USA branded or manufactured, but they are in huge demand overseas)
I disagree. If you think (and rightfully so) that there will be advancements in drivetrain technology, why do you not think there will be advancements in electronics?
There have already been advancements in electronics for cars over the past two decades.
For example, the ECU of a Lamborghini Diablo was cutting edge... in 1991. If it failed, it cost $10k from the dealer to replace it.
However, now you no longer have to worry about that, because you can buy a number of aftermarket ECU systems to run the car, and for a LOT cheaper. Electronics have also advanced, and they are constantly getting smaller, more powerful, and more efficient.
The Lamborghini is a poor example, the collectability of the car and the pocket depth of the Lamborghini owner puts it in another league.
A better example would be the lean burn system on a 1979 Chrysler LeBaron. It also was cutting edge for its time. If it failed - and it usually did - the cost to replace it wasn't bad, but the perception that it was an unreliable system to start with caused most mechanics to scrap it in favor of a pre-1977 carburetor and ignition system. I'd be willing to bet that Mopar stopped making parts for them seven years to the day after the last vehicle equipped with it rolled off the line.
The Lamborghini is a poor example, the collectability of the car and the pocket depth of the Lamborghini owner puts it in another league.
A better example would be the lean burn system on a 1979 Chrysler LeBaron. It also was cutting edge for its time. If it failed - and it usually did - the cost to replace it wasn't bad, but the perception that it was an unreliable system to start with caused most mechanics to scrap it in favor of a pre-1977 carburetor and ignition system. I'd be willing to bet that Mopar stopped making parts for them seven years to the day after the last vehicle equipped with it rolled off the line.
Actually, the Lamborghini was an excellent example. There was a story about it not too long ago, but I'll be damned if I can find it. Lamborghini built their own ECUs, and it wasn't a question of "if" but "when" they would fail. Aftermarket companies stepped up and now there are several firms that provide ECU solutions that are cheaper, more fuel efficient, more reliable, and more powerful than the original units.
I've been through this with some of my previous cars. The Dodge Stealth/3000GT is one. Now there are complete aftermarket replacement ECU's available. They haven't made those cars since 1999, so parts from the dealer are non existent. But that's ok, because the aftermarket ones are much better in every way, even allowing you to tune your own parameters.
20 years from now, when someone wants to restore a 3000GT, they're not going to need to buy parts from the dealer, the aftermarket has already taken care of most of the major electrical and drivetrain components for those cars.
Or....more simply stated, classic cars are much more fun than the regulation-crippled bubble clone cars of today.
How new are you allowing for the definition of classic car to you? I.e. where is the cutoff year for "fun classic" to "Not fun bubble clone car?" And why is that your cutoff? Because I can assure you that my '01 BMW, '06 Mustang GT and '14 Mini Cooper turbo are all fun cars and none are classics (though the 15 year old BMW is damn near one now, lol!) I can also assure you that a new Musntag Camaro, or Challenger is fun, as is a new Focus ST or RS, Fiesta ST, VW Golf R, and any number of AMG, M Sport and Audi S models.
At 52, I've owned classic cars of all sorts, and worked on many more going back to the brass era (I apprenticed at a vintage car restoration shop in my teens, and then opened up my own hot rod shop for a decade). But modern cars are fun, fast, efficient, safe, and do things like corner and stop (and in most cases, accelerate) better in stock form.
For example, the ECU of a Lamborghini Diablo was cutting edge... in 1991. If it failed, it cost $10k from the dealer to replace it.
However, now you no longer have to worry about that, because you can buy a number of aftermarket ECU systems to run the car, and for a LOT cheaper. Electronics have also advanced, and they are constantly getting smaller, more powerful, and more efficient.
As a Diablo owner, I can tell you that we are still buying NOS ECUs when one fails ($5k ea). People randomly discuss modern replacement technology but no one has brought a true replacement to the market.
However, given the value of Diablos (even scruffy ones are in excess of $100k, mine is well over double that) if NOS parts get to be unobtanium, a solution will present itself.
When I take the Diablo to car shows, there is never a shortage of teenage boys fawning over it so the collector hobby will remain strong for another generation.
Also no shortage of Gen X males wiith lots of disposable income.
Do people actually use classic cars as a daily driver? I'd love to have one but why have some people criticized their gas mileage and being boats? I always thought they were meant to be fun to drive and look at and tool around town on a nice summer day.
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