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With more than 300,000 pre-orders for the Tesla Model 3, I'm sure this car is going to a pretty common sight on the road in most major US cities.
Assuming that most of the 300,000 orders are in the USA alone, that means that the car is already more popular than the BMW 3 series in the USA! If you count up every single BMW 3 series sold in America between 2010 and 2014, it's just a tad over 400,000. Keep in mind that more people will continue to buy the car once it actually hits production too. Imagine that! I don't know about you, but I see plenty of BMW 3 series in my area (Northern NJ). It's crazy to imagine seeing a 100% electric car more often than a BMW 3 series on the streets in just a few short years.
If Tesla makes a <$40,000 crossover like a Lexus RX or something, their sales will probably off the charts.
How many of those will actually go through with the purchase remains to be seen. Certainly looks like it's going to be a success though.
I'm sure many of them will be purchased. It's hard to find such an innovative, high tech car that's cheap to run within that price range. I heard that charging up a standard Model S for one year (15,000 miles) results in an increase of $460 to your annual electricity costs. Charging the Model 3 may cost less too. That's very low compared to the $1,200 I spend a year on gas!
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
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The model S is already very common. We went out to dinner at a nearby city, 7 miles away, and probably saw a dozen of them on the road and parked. Mostly black, one red and one blue. They are like the new Lexus here. At only $35k, they won't carry the same prestige, but will likely cut into the Prius market with a lot more power and Waaaay more style for not much more money.
Many who are pre-ordering are doing so with the intent of using tax credits to offset the cost. However, just the number of pre-orders exceeds the maximum credit cut-off which means many will not get the full credit and have to settle for less. If you also factor in all the Tesla cars sold int he US to date as well as the number that will be sold prior to the physical delivery of the Model 3, tax credits to lower the cost could be only for the very few who got in an order and will take delivery before the cap is reached. So, are these pre-orders primarily due to the lower cost with credits or will many still go forward with the purchase if they learn there would be no credits left for them to offset the price? Also, lets not forget the number of cancellations once the novelty has worn off. Plus you have the normal Tesla cancellations as the vehicle hits manufacturing delays.
The Model 3 will be popular, but so was the Fiat 500, SmartCar, and Mini Cooper when they first were introduced..
The model S is already very common. We went out to dinner at a nearby city, 7 miles away, and probably saw a dozen of them on the road and parked. Mostly black, one red and one blue. They are like the new Lexus here. At only $35k, they won't carry the same prestige, but will likely cut into the Prius market with a lot more power and Waaaay more style for not much more money.
Yup, I agree. In many parts of North NJ, it's pretty common to see a Model S. They're just as popular as the BMW 5 series now!
I'm sure many of them will be purchased. It's hard to find such an innovative, high tech car that's cheap to run within that price range. I heard that charging up a standard Model S for one year (15,000 miles) results in an increase of $460 to your annual electricity costs. Charging the Model 3 may cost less too. That's very low compared to the $1,200 I spend a year on gas!
Heard is useless. Unfortunately NJ, like most areas where Teslas will sell in numbers, has higher than average electricity rates. US average is 11 cents per kWh. NJ average is closer to 16 cents.
15,000*(38kWh/100mi) = 5,700 kWh * 16 cents/kWh =$912.
Now, two things. Mode 3 will be slightly more efficient than the Model S. Some states (like California) offer greatly reduced rates. During the summer, I'm paying 18-19 cents per kWh for marginal electricity use as California has punitive electricity rates that go up very quickly as you go up in tiers. California also has EVB rates which requires a separate panel be installed which costs a few thousand dollars and EVA which most people will opt for which is time of use on a single panel. PGE estimates $62/mo average on EVA versus $118 on regular E-1 rates per month. Regular E-1 rates would be $1,416/yr for electricity, EVA $744, EVB $468. All those are for 41 miles per day, 14,965 miles per year. Given it would take 10-30 years to offset the cost of installing a separate panel, most won't opt for EVB.
15,000 miles/yr with my car at average gas prices in CA of $2.78 is around $834. It's not much of a savings at current gas prices.
I agree though, the Model 3 should be pretty popular. Range isn't quite what I'd want. If they have one that offers about 30% more range that costs around $45,000 I might look although $45,000 is getting expensive. That's really not to save money as it wouldn't save much money.
Heard is useless. Unfortunately NJ, like most areas where Teslas will sell in numbers, has higher than average electricity rates. US average is 11 cents per kWh. NJ average is closer to 16 cents.
15,000*(38kWh/100mi) = 5,700 kWh * 16 cents/kWh =$912.
Now, two things. Mode 3 will be slightly more efficient than the Model S. Some states (like California) offer greatly reduced rates. During the summer, I'm paying 18-19 cents per kWh for marginal electricity use as California has punitive electricity rates that go up very quickly as you go up in tiers. California also has EVB rates which requires a separate panel be installed which costs a few thousand dollars and EVA which most people will opt for which is time of use on a single panel. PGE estimates $62/mo average on EVA versus $118 on regular E-1 rates per month. Regular E-1 rates would be $1,416/yr for electricity, EVA $744, EVB $468. All those are for 41 miles per day, 14,965 miles per year. Given it would take 10-30 years to offset the cost of installing a separate panel, most won't opt for EVB.
15,000 miles/yr with my car at average gas prices in CA of $2.78 is around $834. It's not much of a savings at current gas prices.
I agree though, the Model 3 should be pretty popular. Range isn't quite what I'd want. If they have one that offers about 30% more range that costs around $45,000 I might look although $45,000 is getting expensive. That's really not to save money as it wouldn't save much money.
At the cost of the car $35,000 plus tax, plus the need to install a charging station at home, the cost of electricity usage you aren't saving anything. You are paying more upfront for the car alone. In 10 years you will have "saved" from buying about $15,000 in fuel but you paid $15,000 more for the car upfront. Then in 10 years or actually less is when things on the Tesla will need costly repairs.
"If Tesla’s quality problems are preventing a full third of Model X reservation holders from converting $5,000 preorders to actual sales, the impact on Model 3 reservations is likely to be much higher. Increasing the company’s total production volume from 50,000 units last year to 500,000 units by 2020 — as Musk has stated he plans to do — will dramatically increase the likelihood of defects in the Model 3. Consumers in the mass market are far more reliant on their cars than luxury buyers (for whom a Model S or X might be a second or third car), and thus far more sensitive to quality problems."
"If Tesla does ultimately have to refund a significant number of deposits, it won’t have been the first time a mass-market electric car failed to live up to deafening hype. The 2011 Nissan Leaf attracted more than 115,000 "hand raisers", and Nissan invested $5.6 billion in plants that could build half a million of the cars around the world each year. About six years later, Nissan has sold fewer than 300,000 Leafs cumulatively, as actual demand for electric cars proved to be far weaker than electric car enthusiasts had led Nissan to believe. Unlike Tesla, however, Nissan sells nearly five million automobiles per year, allowing it to survive its dramatic miscalculation."
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