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How many crashes does Microsoft Windows have on a daily basis?
Do you really want to put your life in the hands of people that run companies like Google, Microsoft and Facebook?
I don't!
First, until it is proven to me that driverless cars are safer than human driven cars, I refuse to accept that they are. From videos I have seen self-driving cars are at best as good as a bad human driver. And I'm not buying that they will get better. Prove it to me first. Second many of those deaths are the result of defective vehicles or are weather related. I haven't heard anyone claim that driverless cars would prevent those type of crashes. A driverless car is at least as likely to spin out on an icy road, as a human driven car. Third, add to that technology failure of driverless cars, and they would be no safer than human driven cars. So to say that driverless would reduce vehicle deaths to zero, is just not logical.
First, until it is proven to me that driverless cars are safer than human driven cars, I refuse to accept that they are. From videos I have seen self-driving cars are at best as good as a bad human driver. And I'm not buying that they will get better. Prove it to me first. Second many of those deaths are the result of defective vehicles or are weather related. I haven't heard anyone claim that driverless cars would prevent those type of crashes. A driverless car is at least as likely to spin out on an icy road, as a human driven car. Third, add to that technology failure of driverless cars, and they would be no safer than human driven cars. So to say that driverless would reduce vehicle deaths to zero, is just not logical.
Have you not noticed more and more people not paying attention when they drive? Most accidents happen just a few miles from home and in nice weather. Complacency is the biggest driving threat.
I don't doubt the capability will arrive... someday. But in a few years? I really doubt it. We've had Google/Waymo cars driving around in Chandler for probably a couple years now. I saw one for the first time on a freeway this year and it was leaving a massive space between it and the car in front, so huge that all of the traffic behind it was going around. That car was creating a safety hazard and IMO it was irresponsible to put it on the freeway. This was in perfect conditions... daylight, not near sunrise or sunset, on a dry, straight, well-marked road.
There's certainly the possibility to have much better capacity on the freeways if all cars were autonomous and played nicely together. But we either need to (1) have a transition period where driverless and human-driven cars co-exist, or (2) wait until all of the old cars that need human drivers are in the scrapyard and then "flip the switch" so to speak. Handling #1 is probably much harder than #2. Maybe we will first see limited access highways that only allow driverless cars?
First, until it is proven to me that driverless cars are safer than human driven cars, I refuse to accept that they are. From videos I have seen self-driving cars are at best as good as a bad human driver. And I'm not buying that they will get better. Prove it to me first. Second many of those deaths are the result of defective vehicles or are weather related. I haven't heard anyone claim that driverless cars would prevent those type of crashes. A driverless car is at least as likely to spin out on an icy road, as a human driven car. Third, add to that technology failure of driverless cars, and they would be no safer than human driven cars. So to say that driverless would reduce vehicle deaths to zero, is just not logical.
That of course is exactly what is going to happen. The implementation of autonomous vehicles will drive the collection of massive amounts of data. So within a year or two of significant implementation the statistics will be available as will the rate of improvement. I would think trucks, likely initially with drivers, will be one of the major contributors. The truck lines want to get rid of the drivers so they will try and build the statistics to show the driver is not needed.
And the autonomous vehicles will do far better under inclement weather conditions than humans. They can do things like individually controlling and steering the wheels. And they will be much better at detecting and assessing traction.
How many crashes does Microsoft Windows have on a daily basis?
Do you really want to put your life in the hands of people that run companies like Google, Microsoft and Facebook?
I don't!
Ok, here's a little clue about computerization and crashes like that...
Windows, as an OS, has to deal with third party hardware and software that isn't certified for use with it. Without much in the way of redundancies. Occasionally that aftermarket software or hardware causes a conflict that crashes the system. You'll note that due to working with primarily proprietary hardware and software, Macs don't have anywhere near the crashing problems that PCs do.
Your car software and hardware will be even more robust than Macs as you wont' be using third party hardware or software with it (like swapping out laser guidance cards with aftermarket, or writing your own computer code to run a new search engine). It's a completely different sort of computer program/hardware/software setup than a personal computer. How often does your microwave or home theater "crash?" They're computerized. Machine code in a dedicated system rarely crashes. And autonomous cars will be machine code in a dedicated, closed system.
I don't doubt the capability will arrive... someday. But in a few years? I really doubt it. We've had Google/Waymo cars driving around in Chandler for probably a couple years now. I saw one for the first time on a freeway this year and it was leaving a massive space between it and the car in front, so huge that all of the traffic behind it was going around. That car was creating a safety hazard and IMO it was irresponsible to put it on the freeway. This was in perfect conditions... daylight, not near sunrise or sunset, on a dry, straight, well-marked road.
There's certainly the possibility to have much better capacity on the freeways if all cars were autonomous and played nicely together. But we either need to (1) have a transition period where driverless and human-driven cars co-exist, or (2) wait until all of the old cars that need human drivers are in the scrapyard and then "flip the switch" so to speak. Handling #1 is probably much harder than #2. Maybe we will first see limited access highways that only allow driverless cars?
That remains a reasonable projection of what the autonomous vehicles will do initially. Everyone will complain they are too cautious and careful. They observe conservative stopping distances for instance as you noted above. But we then complain they are leaving too much room. As time goes on the software will tighten up and follow closer. But they likely will play it very cautiously at first.
And they will stop quickly due to threats the passenger does not perceive. And the passenger will complain.
I don't doubt the capability will arrive... someday. But in a few years? I really doubt it. We've had Google/Waymo cars driving around in Chandler for probably a couple years now. I saw one for the first time on a freeway this year and it was leaving a massive space between it and the car in front, so huge that all of the traffic behind it was going around. That car was creating a safety hazard and IMO it was irresponsible to put it on the freeway. This was in perfect conditions... daylight, not near sunrise or sunset, on a dry, straight, well-marked road.
There's certainly the possibility to have much better capacity on the freeways if all cars were autonomous and played nicely together. But we either need to (1) have a transition period where driverless and human-driven cars co-exist, or (2) wait until all of the old cars that need human drivers are in the scrapyard and then "flip the switch" so to speak. Handling #1 is probably much harder than #2. Maybe we will first see limited access highways that only allow driverless cars?
It's impossible for manual and autonomous cars to not coexist. Autonomous cars won't come out for another 3-5 years. Those will only be available on top trim levels and they will have a steering wheel. After 10 years or so automation will be available on all trims but the average car being 12 years old will mean another 20 years before autonomous cars will be the dominate car and another 10-20 years before manual drive cars are completely rare. Even then, I'd expect certain sports cars and other speciality cars to be offered in manually driven modes only.
I'm basing these assumptions on the past implementation of adaptive cruise control which is just now becoming mainstream and affordable after 15 years on the market.
I don't doubt the capability will arrive... someday. But in a few years? I really doubt it. We've had Google/Waymo cars driving around in Chandler for probably a couple years now. I saw one for the first time on a freeway this year and it was leaving a massive space between it and the car in front, so huge that all of the traffic behind it was going around. That car was creating a safety hazard and IMO it was irresponsible to put it on the freeway. This was in perfect conditions... daylight, not near sunrise or sunset, on a dry, straight, well-marked road.
You are not the only one to notice that. The cops in Mountain View have been pulling the Google cars over for impeding traffic, and the cars have been getting rear ended in high numbers. But of course that's not Google's problem. That's the other driver's fault for not understanding that self-driving cars are programed to drive like a 90 year old woman on her way to church.
You are not the only one to notice that. The cops in Mountain View have been pulling the Google cars over for impeding traffic, and the cars have been getting rear ended in high numbers. But of course that's not Google's problem. That's the other driver's fault for not understanding that self-driving cars are programed to drive like a 90 year old woman on her way to church.
That will get beat out of people as they realize they're in the minority of speeding. People speed because they're tired of being in the car. With an autonomous car you can relax and watch a movie or something.
Speed limits are where they are now because human drivers can't be trusted with anything higher. Autonomous cars will be able travel much faster and safer provided most other cars are autonomous and can handle it as well.
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