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Old 08-12-2017, 09:05 AM
 
9,613 posts, read 6,864,792 times
Reputation: 6842

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cruz Azul Guy View Post
Let's check back in 10 years and see who was right, shall we?
No need. I have common sense and I understand economics and physics. It's going to take much more than hope and optimism to change the direction of the future. Bottom line is the average person could care less about their carbon footprint.

10 years ago hydrogen was all the rage, then flex fuels, now batteries again. Hybrids peaked at less than 5% market share years ago. EVs are less than 1% even under the most subsidized conditions. The trend is not in your favor.
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Old 08-12-2017, 09:11 AM
 
Location: Minneapolis, MN
10,244 posts, read 16,294,101 times
Reputation: 5303
What your stats fail to point out is that we are hitting the fork in the road right now. Up until now there were no affordable long range EVs available....they are just now entering the market. Prices will fall and technology will improve to the point that it no longer is economically feasible to mess with an ICE vehicle.
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Old 08-12-2017, 09:27 AM
 
9,613 posts, read 6,864,792 times
Reputation: 6842
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cruz Azul Guy View Post
What your stats fail to point out is that we are hitting the fork in the road right now. Up until now there were no affordable long range EVs available....they are just now entering the market. Prices will fall and technology will improve to the point that it no longer is economically feasible to mess with an ICE vehicle.
The fork isn't there because it doesn't make sense to drive an extended range electric vehicle extended ranges.
Use Tesla's range tool and plug in cold weather, higher speeds, and heater use and watch what happens to your range. My theoretical range for a 75kwh battery dropped 100 miles using their calculator. They won't let me input more than 70mph.
Battery technology and cost are not linear with time and you forget gas cars havent stopped improving themselves. You also fail to account for rising electric prices should everybody run on electric. Or dwindling easily mined raw materials for battery production.


The vast majority of people are buying trucks and SUVs and gladly paying $40k-$60k for them.
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Old 08-12-2017, 10:33 AM
 
1,142 posts, read 1,130,506 times
Reputation: 3128
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cruz Azul Guy View Post
What your stats fail to point out is that we are hitting the fork in the road right now. Up until now there were no affordable long range EVs available....they are just now entering the market. Prices will fall and technology will improve to the point that it no longer is economically feasible to mess with an ICE vehicle.
Let me know how many miles your extended range EV will do in -22deg F weather.
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Old 08-12-2017, 11:00 AM
 
Location: Minneapolis, MN
10,244 posts, read 16,294,101 times
Reputation: 5303
Quote:
Originally Posted by nirvana07 View Post
Let me know how many miles your extended range EV will do in -22deg F weather.
Wow, let's point out the most extreme conditions to denigrate battery range. I've lived in Minnesota all my life and I've driven in -20 degrees maybe 4-5 times total (35 years). I'm not concerned about reduced range in extreme cold.
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Old 08-12-2017, 11:03 AM
 
12,999 posts, read 18,815,662 times
Reputation: 9236
EV sales are rising even with cheap gasoline. It won't be long before the charge and use cycle gets closer to gasoline. And the price may drop as well. But Tesla will only get a small share of it; it just doesn't have the production capability.
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Old 08-12-2017, 11:08 AM
 
Location: Morrison, CO
34,134 posts, read 18,389,708 times
Reputation: 25707
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
No need. I have common sense and I understand economics and physics. It's going to take much more than hope and optimism to change the direction of the future. Bottom line is the average person could care less about their carbon footprint.

10 years ago hydrogen was all the rage, then flex fuels, now batteries again. Hybrids peaked at less than 5% market share years ago. EVs are less than 1% even under the most subsidized conditions. The trend is not in your favor.
I agree. The only way the EV's will become more popular is if they become more economical than ICE vehicles, and get much, much better range. Also, what will power large trucks to transport goods? I don't see electric taking that market. People care about $$$, period.
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Old 08-12-2017, 11:21 AM
 
9,613 posts, read 6,864,792 times
Reputation: 6842
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pilot1 View Post
I agree. The only way the EV's will become more popular is if they become more economical than ICE vehicles, and get much, much better range. Also, what will power large trucks to transport goods? I don't see electric taking that market. People care about $$$, period.
Or ships, or airplanes, or rockets, or bulldozers...etc
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Old 08-12-2017, 12:05 PM
 
Location: Minneapolis, MN
10,244 posts, read 16,294,101 times
Reputation: 5303
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
Or ships, or airplanes, or rockets, or bulldozers...etc
Yes, innovation is quite perplexing, isn't it?
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Old 08-12-2017, 12:16 PM
 
564 posts, read 445,364 times
Reputation: 1155
Quote:
Originally Posted by V8 Vega View Post
Why should poor people subsidise rich people who buy expensive new electric cars?
Right. And why should rich people subsidize poor people so they can have cars and cell phones and television sets and housing...

Things even out, kind of.
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