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Article makes great points, but overstates the pace of the transition. One aspect it omits is stratification, which we already seeing today: the new high tech electric cars will be bought by the upper classes, while the lower economic classes will drive hand-me-down oil burners for decades to come.
I believe that there will a slow transition from gasoline/diesel to hybrid to electric as building codes add rechargers in everyparking space. I think that there will be a long period where the family car will be a hybrid and the "station car" will be an electric. Volvo has their finger on the pulse in their recent decision to go all hybrid and electric in 2019.
I believe that there will a slow transition from gasoline/diesel to hybrid to electric as building codes add rechargers in everyparking space. I think that there will be a long period where the family car will be a hybrid and the "station car" will be an electric. Volvo has their finger on the pulse in their recent decision to go all hybrid and electric in 2019.
Do you have any idea of the cost to retrofit parking spaces with charging stations? Right now, today, burying utility lines in a no problem anticipated scenario ranges between $1000/foot to $1500/foot. That's without replacing pavement or sidewalk.
Article makes great points, but overstates the pace of the transition. One aspect it omits is stratification, which we already seeing today: the new high tech electric cars will be bought by the upper classes, while the lower economic classes will drive hand-me-down oil burners for decades to come.
I think the world will gradually shift towards electric cars, but the key word is gradual. Here are the roadblocks that I see for the foreseeable future:
(full disclosure: I don't have a crystal ball so this is merely my opinion)
1. Infrastructure - It's easy to think the transition will be faster if you live in LA or Silicon Valley that already has sprawling single family homes with chargers installed in private garages. However, those areas don't represent the bulk of automobile demand worldwide. Densely populated urban cores in places such as China and India are seeing an uptick in car ownership and there is a lack of EV charging infrastructure to really make it feasible. Those places are still buying petrol cars. And their populations easily dwarf the US.
2. ICE applications other than automobiles - Battery technology will continue to improve but currently there's the issue of energy density. A Tesla requires a large, heavy battery to make its range possible, but try strapping on a giant lithium battery to an airplane (it can't take off and land), a locomotive (another range/weight issue), or a big rig (range issue again). Those modes of transportation require significantly more range than a commuter car.
3. Economics - We currently live in an era of cheap oil. If there's a major increase in the production of EVs, I'd imagine the metals to produce the batteries will become increasingly expensive, which will make it more difficult for manufacturers to reduce production costs (but then again, they can extract more of those metals elsewhere). If EV demand were to increase then I imagine that the federal and state tax credits will vanish, and governments will figure out a way to tax EV's rather than incentivize them. In the US, fuel tax(gasoline, diesel) pays to sustain its transportation infrastructure. If people were to move away from ICE cars, guess where the revenue will have to come from? EVs. If a simple EV were to remain at $40k with no tax incentive, suddenly that 4 cylinder Camry at $20k becomes a no-brainer.
As mentioned above, I do see the EV as the future. It makes a compelling case with its simplicity (no more transmissions, oil changes, timing belts etc), instant torque, efficiency, and instant torque. However, I believe the ICE will remain highly relevant for a while, perhaps during our lifetimes and our children's lifetimes.
Take water, separate the oxygen from the hydrogen, it'll power gasoline or diesel. When ignited, it's only emissions are water vapor and oxides of nitrogen. Or N0X.
The large amount of electricity needed to extract hydrogen from water makes it impractical and uneconomical to implement in large scale.
Over 95% of hydrogen produced in this country is extracted from natural gas. Fracking makes it viable by lowering the cost of gas.
Right now the ICE is king no and will remain so till well after I'm gone I'm 62 now. Oil is low and there is a glut of it. And as far as self driving semi trucks that's way way far away. Your talking about a vehicle that weighs up to 80,000 lbs including trailer. It doesn't include the load it's carrying. How can a self driving semi wind it's trailer through the big cities like NY or Chicago, and backup into a tight dock. Semi truck drivers have to get out and adjust the trailer axles to back up into a tight dock, and then put the axles all the way back for highway driving. So they are also going to have to invent trailers that can self adjust their axles to acomadate different docks and loading platforms. You need a experience driver to do all of the above.
Right now the ICE is king no and will remain so till well after I'm gone I'm 62 now. Oil is low and there is a glut of it. And as far as self driving semi trucks that's way way far away. Your talking about a vehicle that weighs up to 80,000 lbs including trailer. It doesn't include the load it's carrying. How can a self driving semi wind it's trailer through the big cities like NY or Chicago, and backup into a tight dock. Semi truck drivers have to get out and adjust the trailer axles to back up into a tight dock, and then put the axles all the way back for highway driving. So they are also going to have to invent trailers that can self adjust their axles to acomadate different docks and loading platforms. You need a experience driver to do all of the above.
Sorry but the truck implementation of an autonomous vehicle is certain and will be quick. And it will include kits to adapt existing vehicles.
Standard semis are limited to 80,000lbs. That includes the load. Empty weight is around 37,000 lbs.
And it is the $130,000 that they cost and the salary of the driver that makes them the obvious target.
They do not need initially to perform in places like NY or Chicago. Though I suspect they will actually do alright there. The open roads of the Midwest, south and west will more than provide the initial opportunity.
The Tesla thing is a different breed. We will see soon what he is up to. I don't know if it is actually all electric or a hybrid. The gimmick appeared to be providing separate drive for each wheel. Thus perhaps as four or six wheel drive. All independent. Will be interesting to see. The battery gross weight has to be somethng like 6000 lbs. But the weight of the other components may partially compensate.
The large amount of electricity needed to extract hydrogen from water makes it impractical and uneconomical to implement in large scale.
Over 95% of hydrogen produced in this country is extracted from natural gas. Fracking makes it viable by lowering the cost of gas.
But the large amount of electricity needed to charge batteries isn't an issue
Never mind the cost to recycle lithium, or the amount of fossil fuels required to mine lithium...
One would think that trains would become autonomous before anything else. They run on protected and dedicated rights of way with mandated speed and spacing. Good place to perfect the the technology.
Except, even "autonomous" trains have an operator who controls the majority of train movement.
One would think that trains would become autonomous before anything else. They run on protected and dedicated rights of way with mandated speed and spacing. Good place to perfect the the technology.
Except, even "autonomous" trains have an operator who controls the majority of train movement.
Trains could easily and simply be autonomous and they are not because management and the union have made a deal both find acceptable. I would think the second pilot in an airplane is a more likely target than the train engineer. And the NY subway is also easily automated with present technology. Again though labor/management and politics is really the deciding factor.
I suspect what is actually going to happen is we will maintain the engineer but provide an automaton who can and does override the engineer.
Trains could easily and simply be autonomous and they are not because management and the union have made a deal both find acceptable. I would think the second pilot in an airplane is a more likely target than the train engineer. And the NY subway is also easily automated with present technology. Again though labor/management and politics is really the deciding factor.
I suspect what is actually going to happen is we will maintain the engineer but provide an automaton who can and does override the engineer.
The problem isn't technology. The reason you have guys driving trains, trucks, and flying planes is because the Feds require it. You can invent anything you want, but if it remains illegal to not have a driver, then you're just selling an expensive truck and you still need a driver.
Somewhere along the line Elon switched from saving the earth to trying to destroy jobs as quickly as possible all the while claiming AI is the biggest threat to mankind. And he wants to retire on Mars.
It's apparent Elon just kinda makes it up as he goes along.
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