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So I work in the automotive industry and the talk of fully autonomous vehicles has become a major item.
Right now, we are at the beginning step of 3 with Tesla. About to drive under particular situations. Fully autonomous would be step 5. So, we're about halfway there step wise.
I talk with my friends about this, i get alot of different opinions. One friend thinks were about five years ago which I feel is way too soon and unrealistic.
My opinion, we're 20-25 years ago.
Hacking into the car motherboard and controlling a vehicle remotely is the key safety setup.
The other setback is the automakers themselves. If a computer can drive, the wear and tear severity will likely decrease and there shouldn't be accidents. No accidents, no totaled vehicles. Less need to purchase new vehicles. And no need to build say bumper covers anymore. The service and collision industry will dwindle down to user errors and weather related losses.
I like to get a gauge when people think most automakers will reach full autonomous and/or the government will allow that.
Opinions don't matter.
Find book by Ray Kurzweil where he gives down to year timetable of what and when will come.
that book is answer to your questions.
2025 I believe non autonomous car will be banned.
According to Ray Kurzweil, 89 out of 108 predictions he made were entirely correct by the end of 2009. An additional 13 were what he calls “essentially correct" (meaning that they were likely to be realized within a few years of 2009), for a total of 102 out of 108. Another 3 are partially correct, 2 look like they are about 10 years off, and 1, which was tongue in cheek anyway, was just wrong.
Opinions don't matter.
Find book by Ray Kurzweil where he gives down to year timetable of what and when will come.
that book is answer to your questions. 2025 I believe non autonomous car will be banned.
According to Ray Kurzweil, 89 out of 108 predictions he made were entirely correct by the end of 2009. An additional 13 were what he calls “essentially correct" (meaning that they were likely to be realized within a few years of 2009), for a total of 102 out of 108. Another 3 are partially correct, 2 look like they are about 10 years off, and 1, which was tongue in cheek anyway, was just wrong.
Add that one to his list of fails. Though I suspect he will try to spin it to the “essentially correct" category. The only way I will be driving an autonomous car by 2025 is if someone else pays for it, not likely. Add to that the overwhelming majority of us who have already gone on record as saying we would rather die than own an autonomous car. You can't ban the majority of the cars on the road, and the majority of the cars on the road in 2025 will be non autonomous cars. If you try that, we will just ignore the law and continue driving what we are driving. People are continuing to buy non autonomous cars, which have a lifespan of about 12 years. Over half of those cars will still be on the road in 2025. So there is zero chance for that prediction to come true. Unless you fanboys are planning to raise trillions of dollars to buy every non autonomous car driver an autonomous car. Even then I think most of us would just decline the offer.
The only way I will be driving an autonomous car by 2025 is if someone else pays for it,
Wouldnt the autonomous car be driving you?
I would miss the hands on driving experience when cars go full autonomous but with people wanting every electronic convenience built into todays cars its only a matter of time before computers take over the actual driving of the car ,just hop in enter/dictate your desired coordinates and the car does the rest, in fact i wonder at that point the need for a personal vehicle just call up a pod car and get taken to your destination like an over ground elevator.
Wouldnt the autonomous car be driving you?
I would miss the hands on driving experience when cars go full autonomous but with people wanting every electronic convenience built into todays cars its only a matter of time before computers take over the actual driving of the car ,just hop in enter/dictate your desired coordinates and the car does the rest, in fact i wonder at that point the need for a personal vehicle just call up a pod car and get taken to your destination like an over ground elevator.
I think it could be a good thing. On long road trips the computers could link the cars up to draft each other that were going the same direction. When the computer nears your exit your car would just drop out and the others sync back up. Would save gas and they could probably travel faster later on when technology is better.
This is another way to control the population and keep us on a leash. Why is autonomous vehicles all the talk right now? The government surely would love this because the more freedoms you take away from the public, the more say and control you have over them.
I can see some positives to driving an autonomous vehicle (less crashes, better safety) but as we all know with anything that is electronic, it can fail instantly without any symptoms.
The government can’t force everybody into autonomous cars in 8 years, it will take decades of proven safety track records in order for them to do anything that insane. Btw what about all the car enthusiast and classic car owners? There will be massive lawsuits and protests against it.
Every custom car shop in the nation will be out of business if this ever became a reality.
People need to realize that as awesome as this all sounds to some people, long road trips hands free driving, behind the scenes the government is working to limit our control and what it means to have a choice in this country. Once you remove that choice, and options, you slowly turn us into a dictatorship rather a democracy.
Our nation is heading towards this dictatorship rule of law as the globalist leaders try to find ways to take total control of every ounce of freedom we have left and crush it until there’s no tomorrow.
It will happen in steps. The first step is vehicle to vehicle communication. That starts now. The advantages are huge.
We'd get a major increase in road capacity because the cars that talk to each other could drive more closely; there would be no need for traffic lights, no drunk or distracted drivers and far fewer crashes. We could eliminate many urban parking lots.
But there will be a lot of bumps along the way, and like most transitions, there will be a lot of opposition to change. The key is to use carrots instead of sticks.
On a recent trip to the San Fran Bay area, I noticed that the HOV lanes were moving at 75 mph while the general lanes we were in were moving about 5 mph. If I lived there, I'd figure out how to be one of those other guys.
This issue has been a regular feature at C-D for at least three years now, and I have yet to see much serious discussion on questions as basic as whether the "self-driving car" can address the problem of the infinite variations in local highways exclusively via sensors and a "master algorithm", or via a series of local databases designed to cope with conditions unique to the local area; nor how and why the trucking industry (the most obvious immediate beneficiary, but a sure-fire target for legal harassment by disappointed Snowflakes) isn't involved to any serious degree.
There remains a huge gap between the expectations of a largely non- and/or anti-technical public led to expect to much via science-fantasy, and the hard facts of hard science, and the bleating of the over-indulged teenyboppers continues to be encouraged by Madison Avenue's dream merchants, who don't want to face the fact that technical advancement still carries a price tag in the form of demands for greater responsibility; the new concerns over the (ab)use of electronic playthings while operating a vehicle is simply the most glaring proof of the point.
Last edited by 2nd trick op; 10-06-2017 at 05:48 AM..
Would you actually trust a machine? I have 2 cars - an automatic and a manual, and i honestly do not trust the automatic. Yes, is easier to drive, but i prefer to have a control over my vehicle. Not to be paranoid, but i have read and seen enough not to trust a machine that could easily be manipulated.
It would be great, though, to have autonomous cars. That would a sure signal, for me at least, that we are still evolving. But i think it would take us at least 10-15 years to see a "successful autonomous car" - with all the tests/checks passed.
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