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Gas prices on the upswing, another recession predicted in a couple years, manufacturing costs coming down. I could see it happening, though rising interest rates will put a damper on car sales.
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
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IF... the industry would focus on getting EV into commercial applications FIRST... robust / costs / technology will come in line MUCH faster. (They should have done this 10 yrs ago... (Fed-Ex, UPS, Taxis, Police, ...) they dabbled, but did not immerse)
But... VW will turn the corner on this (getting their vehicles positioned as 'commodity' EV's, Worldwide),
they have the technology, and distribution and WW manufacturing. (and incentive)
Since I live in the boonies and drive LONG distances... I will depend on their 'other' technology which has delivered an economical 50mpg since 1976 in USA (and before internationally), burning Bio fuels has kept me (nearly) 'emission free' since 1976.
He is not an auto or energy expert, but is an EV fan so be cautious with his predictions.
Even though electric vehicles are great the issues of batteries, recharging, and electricity generation / distribution make the big picture more complicated.
Look at the facts. In 2017 the last full year for sales, only 1.13% of vehicles sold were EVs, and nearly all of them were sold in California. They are being sold only in big cities, and where distances traveled on a year around basis, will allow them to use EVs on a regular basis.
But not in most of the country. Here in Montana as an example there is not one Tesla registered. And in Wyoming only one is registered and that is one owned by a major movie star that is kept at his Wyoming ranch for a summer go to town car when he can get away to the ranch.
EVs lose about 60% of range when the weather turns cold. They lose range, when going up mountains, and other hard pulls. When it gets cold, they lose range as the battery power is also used for heat, and boy does the cars use a lot of heat in the winters. By the time it all ads up in the winter I could not drive to the closest city which would be a 100 mile round trip one direction, and 180 miles the other direction. Their clearance is not sufficient for snow country, and are only good for warm weather use without snow. That is why SUVs, and Pickups all with 4 wheel drive will be about 75% of the motor vehicles in any parking lot year around, and in winter some days the only vehicles in the parking lot. And all will be 4X4 or AWD.
We personally have driven SUVs and Pickups since mid 70s long before they became fashionable as they are today.
Our part of the country, SUVs and Pickups were the vehicle of choice, before they became fashionable and people all over the country started buying them as they are today. People are quitting buying small sedans, coups, etc., and switching from those little dinky cars they build today, to Pickups and SUVs so they can have room enough to sit up in them, and can actually haul a family plus some groceries. In fact sales have been declining so fast for those little dinky cars to the point, Ford will quit building all but SUVs, Pickups, and Mustangs, or so they just recently announced. They are switching their assembly lines to what people want to buy, Pickups (mostly 4 door) and SUVs.
Look at the facts. In 2017 the last full year for sales, only 1.13% of vehicles sold were EVs, and nearly all of them were sold in California. It has been predicted by 2040 they will be as high as 3% of the cars sold in this country.
Yeah until batteries/charging is greatly improved it's going to be a long time before they become common in someplace like Montana. But for most of the population? It could certainly make sense for one of the family cars to be an EV for the daily commute. Short suburb/city trips are where they excel and that covers a whole heck of a lot of people.
I think you have to look at Norway as the example. They've had a 300% tax on fuel based cars for several years. It's only this year that more than 50% of new cars sold were electric, and even after that, they're barely over 10% of all cars on the road. We're a generation or two away, barring some catastrophic event or electrical storage miracle.
Bull, so many obvious obstacles to overcome.....a niche-car for the foreseeable future.
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