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I have a hard time believing that self-driving cars are better than Uber/Lyft or mass transit. LA and NYC traffic is bad enough, how would self driving cars make traffic jams better? The solution is still better mass transit system where in a closed loop train system like commuter rail roads and subways that automation will proliferate quicker than automated passenger cars. There are many NYC Subway lines that are already operating with just one conductor and the train is fully automated. In 20 years all subway trains will operate with zero human onboard and everything will be automated and remotely operated.
I could commute by train into NYC in 45mins, there's no way a car can get into NYC from where I live in less than one hour. Self-driving cars does not solve traffic congestion unless people are willing to take mass transit trains and buses that are operated by computers which is no different than today's human operated mass transit.
I think you're thinking way too far in the future. Uber and Lyft are basically taxi cabs. Fully automated driving is like having your own chauffeur.
In the near term though, expect primarily highway based automated driving. Cadillac's Super Cruise already does this. They keep the lawyers at bay by forcing you to stare at the road. Volvo's is taking it a step further by actually giving you a count down timer to when you have to start paying attention so you can read the paper, play games on your phone, etc. That's today's technology.
This was published a year ago, but check out the Chevy Bolt driving itself through inner city San Francisco https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88k7P3EmRis Check out at the 2:30 minute mark the car driving itself around a parked moving truck. This stuff is further along than you think it is.
Im not sure they could justify even liability if every single car on the road is self drive though...making SD mandatory is where this is headed utimately, it will be promoted as a safety thing when it happens...but at the same time, it will be SO safe, insurance coverage will not be needed anymore (for accidents).
If I had a SD car and it was mandatory to operate SD, there is NO WAY I would buy liability insurance.
I just don't see this as being a deal breaker. People are accustomed to buying insurance on everything from houses to golf carts. That insurance might get cheaper if safety is proven but it's still going to exist. Liability isn't an option for moving vehicles.
And it appears they have all they need to simply proceed. So by the end of the year we will have a real fully automated taxi service in an American city.
And then it will get even more interesting next year.
And i would also point out that sets of automated jitneys on dedicated right of ways could out perform any light rail. And they would handle the last mile well.
I think you're thinking way too far in the future. Uber and Lyft are basically taxi cabs. Fully automated driving is like having your own chauffeur.
In the near term though, expect primarily highway based automated driving. Cadillac's Super Cruise already does this. They keep the lawyers at bay by forcing you to stare at the road. Volvo's is taking it a step further by actually giving you a count down timer to when you have to start paying attention so you can read the paper, play games on your phone, etc. That's today's technology.
This was published a year ago, but check out the Chevy Bolt driving itself through inner city San Francisco https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88k7P3EmRisCheck out at the 2:30 minute mark the car driving itself around a parked moving truck. This stuff is further along than you think it is.
Only after the car saw two other cars pass the moving truck, did it finally go around. It had no clue what to do, so it just stopped behind the moving truck and waited to see what the human drivers were going to do. Basically it was just emulating what it saw the human drivers do. How the hell can this technology be safer than human drivers, when all it does is emulates what it sees human drivers do? Also it stopped in the middle of the crosswalk just before it got to the truck, for no apparent reason. If that video is the best example of self-driving technology that you can find, we are all doomed.
And it appears they have all they need to simply proceed. So by the end of the year we will have a real fully automated taxi service in an American city.
And then it will get even more interesting next year.
And i would also point out that sets of automated jitneys on dedicated right of ways could out perform any light rail. And they would handle the last mile well.
Note to self: Stay out of Arizona. Let the carnage begin. Any bets on what the body count will be by the end of next year?
Only after the car saw two other cars pass the moving truck, did it finally go around. It had no clue what to do, so it just stopped behind the moving truck and waited to see what the human drivers were going to do. Basically it was just emulating what it saw the human drivers do. How the hell can this technology be safer than human drivers, when all it does is emulates what it sees human drivers do? Also it stopped in the middle of the crosswalk just before it got to the truck, for no apparent reason. If that video is the best example of self-driving technology that you can find, we are all doomed.
I have pointed out a number of times that one of the likely problems particularly early will be that the AV are too cautious. That video is actually better than I would have expected though the speed up makes it almost incomprehensible in terms of decision making. And I would think the decision making at the moving truck was quite reasonable...better than I would have expected.
i would also expect that the AVs will actually shame the humans into driving better. We will not want to admit the machines are better at it then we are.
How self-driving cars merge onto the freeway. They don't, they just stop. Of course if an unsuspecting human driver behind runs into them when the self-driving car stops unexpectedly on the ramp, it's not the self-driving car's fault. They were rear ended. So they can blame the human driver.
I have pointed out a number of times that one of the likely problems particularly early will be that the AV are too cautious. That video is actually better than I would have expected though the speed up makes it almost incomprehensible in terms of decision making. And I would think the decision making at the moving truck was quite reasonable...better than I would have expected.
i would also expect that the AVs will actually shame the humans into driving better. We will not want to admit the machines are better at it then we are.
Get back to me when you have data to prove the machines are better. Until then, that is just your opinion.
Get back to me when you have data to prove the machines are better. Until then, that is just your opinion.
They are. Have you not seen human drivers? Machines don’t get drunk, tired, text, or otherwise get distracted, and actually follow rules. They can see everywhere at once all the time.
Don’t take it too personal.
Only after the car saw two other cars pass the moving truck, did it finally go around. It had no clue what to do, so it just stopped behind the moving truck and waited to see what the human drivers were going to do. Basically it was just emulating what it saw the human drivers do. How the hell can this technology be safer than human drivers, when all it does is emulates what it sees human drivers do? Also it stopped in the middle of the crosswalk just before it got to the truck, for no apparent reason. If that video is the best example of self-driving technology that you can find, we are all doomed.
So a video from a year ago shows a car it hesitate for a few seconds to get around a moving truck on it’s own, and based on just that you think the technology is doomed forever?
You’re grasping at straws.
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