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Only looking at pure BEV as competitors. No tidal wave there.
There’s at least 15 BEVs there. PHEVs are just as much if not more of a competitor to BEV’s. Either way it’s soon to be a crowded market. Even if every competitor only gets 5% of the EV market, that leaves Tesla with a very small piece leftover.
Remember when Blackberry dominated the smartphone market?
Yeah, right after Nokia. Who was right after Motorola. And right before HTC. Which was right before Samsung.
The car market, however, is nowhere near as volatile as the cell phone market.
Speaking of which, I like to think i had the first smartphone: Nokia 6682
I paid next to nothing for it as they weren't selling at all. I still have it and plan to donate it to some museum some day.
As for the EV reliability question, I think we've thoroughly answered that one with its fewer moving parts, systems, and serviceable components. It will still require maintenance and inspection from time to time, but most users will probably just need a wheel alignment, change of tires, 12V battery swap every 3-5 years, dampers at 30K-100K miles, and windshield wiper blades.
Speaking of which, I like to think i had the first smartphone: Nokia 6682
I paid next to nothing for it as they weren't selling at all. I still have it and plan to donate it to some museum some day.
As for the EV reliability question, I think we've thoroughly answered that one with its fewer moving parts, systems, and serviceable components. It will still require maintenance and inspection from time to time, but most users will probably just need a wheel alignment, change of tires, 12V battery swap every 3-5 years, dampers at 30K-100K miles, and windshield wiper blades.
Not exactly. Currently the examples of EV’s we have today aren’t proving to be anymore reliable than their ICE counterparts. In theory maybe, but that’s not proving true so far.
I don’t think you’re aware but modern ICE’s don’t really require a lot of maintenance anymore. They’re starting to make transmissions as sealed units, timing belts are now timing chains with no replacement schedule, and oil changes are now pushing 10k miles intervals. Of the past 6 cars I’ve owned the majority of maintenance cost has been tires the rest is negligible.
Do you think in the future the shift to EVs are going to make them more reliable than Gasoline/Diesel vehicles? Since they probably do not have a lot of "wear" items compared to a more complicated ICE with a complicated transmission/emission/fuel systems. Meaning you can just drive them and since there are no oil/tranny fluid changes, spark plugs etc...?
While perhaps not a transmission in the classical sense, likely the output of the electric motor will drive a gear set that is contained in a differential which will require fluid. Currently there is one electric motor per axle, and the upcoming Roaster v2 will have 3 - one for each rear wheel (eliminating the need for a differential) and one for the front axle.
Of course. But with far fewer major systems, it has to be an improvement.
IC Engine: a zillion high-precision wearing parts. (Plus complex cooling and lubrication subsystems).
EV Motors: two major wear points, bearings and any contact brushes. Air-cooled, mostly. No lube system.
IC transmission: a zillion high-precision wearing parts.
EVs: none.
(ditto for axle and center differentials)
IC brakes: only moderately complex even with ABS.
EV brakes: regen systems on top of all regular brake components.
And, of course, an EV battery and its control (and cooling) systems will need some maintenance and eventual replacement. But in the end, EV's have half or fewer "moving" parts in the major systems, and electric motors are inherently more durable than fuel ones on top of that.
I agree, for the most part, EVs will probably be much more reliable than fossil-fuel vehicles.
But what if the the fact that there will be a lot more high-power electronic-components, actually makes some EVs (the bottom 10% in quality) a lot less reliable than fossil-fuel vehicle. A supply-chain that gets infected will bad high-power thyristors and transistors, yuck.
Industrial-grade computers are designed to be basically bulletproof and operate on an almost continual basis.......many times having no moving parts. Yet they still find a way to die.
Offering a tidal wave of EVs doesn't mean they will sell. Despite the recent increase in sales to 6% of cars sold in 2018, they still only made up 1% of all vehicles registered in the U.S. It will be interesting to see if all these companies end up with EV inventory sitting on the lots.
My understanding is that all BEVs so far are either much lower-market models or have been heavily subsized for the buyer. Got any evidence that, say, Ford or Toyota can sell even the $35k model Tesla has attempted, with at least some desirability of quality/comfort and no subsidy?
The perpetual roundy-round of comparing apples to orangutans to fondue pots in this topic drives me crazy.
My understanding is that all BEVs so far are either much lower-market models or have been heavily subsized for the buyer. Got any evidence that, say, Ford or Toyota can sell even the $35k model Tesla has attempted, with at least some desirability of quality/comfort and no subsidy?
The perpetual roundy-round of comparing apples to orangutans to fondue pots in this topic drives me crazy.
Why do they need to sell with no subsidy?
If Ford wanted to, they could sell 50K EVs with a $10K subsidy and use a few weeks worth of F150 profits to do it.
Tesla can't do that.
VW is almost certainly going use gasoline vehicle profits to sell EVs at the prices they're talking.
IMO, that Microbus EV they're going to do is going to be a big hit.
Last edited by eaton53; 12-21-2018 at 08:47 PM..
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