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Not according to that chart. Look at Nissan Leaf and it is still $7500. Several states, like mine, have additional incentives on top of that. The Leaf starts at $29,995 and I can find $12,500 in rebates in Colorado. Sub $20K for a new car. Not bad.
I was looking at Bolt. The Leaf looks a lot like a $17k Elantra. Texas has $2500 credit for first 2000 applicants. I'd assume that's long gone else EV industry is even smaller than I thought. Colorado says it's tax credits will decrease in 2020. These credits will inevitably disappear. Many states have nothing at all.
Btw, why are the feds favoring one model over another anyway? Why $7500 for a Leaf and $1875 for a Bolt?
I was looking at Bolt. The Leaf looks a lot like a $17k Elantra. Texas has $2500 credit for first 2000 applicants. I'd assume that's long gone else EV industry is even smaller than I thought. Colorado says it's tax credits will decrease in 2020. These credits will inevitably disappear. Many states have nothing at all.
Btw, why are the feds favoring one model over another anyway? Why $7500 for a Leaf and $1875 for a Bolt?
The feds pay 7500 up to a certain amount of vehicles sold (by company, not model,)then it starts dropping.
Agreed though that the Bolt is a more attractive proposition at this time than the Leaf. The recent redesign made the Leaf a tad less fugly but it still isn’t an attractive car. The range has improved but it’s still too low in my opinion which limits its usefullness and would be a source of range anxiety in my case. Meanwhile I could see the Bolt as a legit 2nd car in my garage.....still it’s no Model 3 though. For anyone who thinks the Model 3 is too expensive, try test driving one. When you consider range, performance and the technology package it is well worth the price.
I was looking at Bolt. The Leaf looks a lot like a $17k Elantra. Texas has $2500 credit for first 2000 applicants. I'd assume that's long gone else EV industry is even smaller than I thought. Colorado says it's tax credits will decrease in 2020. These credits will inevitably disappear. Many states have nothing at all.
Btw, why are the feds favoring one model over another anyway? Why $7500 for a Leaf and $1875 for a Bolt?
The federal program is based on the idea of getting automakers started on EVs, so it starts getting reduced once you sell 200k EVs at which point the credits start halving and then expire completely. The idea is to give automakers a foothold to be better able to weather the transition to EVs and that after such, they shouldn’t need it anymore. GM did a good job with the Bolt and it crossed the 200k threshold—Nissan is probably close to crossing it so. Tesla crossed it as well. It’s going to be really intense when VW starts cranking the EVs though, because that threshold crossing and when the reductions kick in are in the next quarter after crossing 200k. If VW ramped up and worked out production kinks in the EU first and then retooled its US factories and made sure it had ample EV manufacturing capacity for a massive deployment push in the US, then the way the federal EV credit is structured means that VW could be eating everyone’s lunch in a short span of time.
Well, 2022 is over and data for the first month of 2023 is out now, so perhaps it's good to revisit these a bit to see how things have panned out since 2019 which feels like an altogether different era to me.
The article stated in 2019 the average BEV range needs to hit about the 300 mile mark for greater mass adoption and we're close as the average BEV range right now is probably around the 250 mark while the median for the US is at least at the 272 miles EPA rating mark since that's the lowest rated among mass market Teslas and Tesla has an outright majority of US new BEV market share. Now, there is a question of whether EPA rating should be what's taken as how accurate it is varies a lot from driver to driver and model to model. Whatever the case may be though, given that there will be a pretty good suite of new releases and revisions over the course of this year, there's a chance that the EPA average and median get to 300 miles for new BEVs by the end of this year. Their battery price cited prediction for 2025 remains to be seen, but 2022 estimates and 2023 projections do still put them significantly less expensive than they were in 2019 when the article was released though 2023 did see the first rise in battery prices in a very long while though it was a fairly slight uptick though also keep in mind that the the OP's article's numbers are in 2019 dollars and there has been inflation since. The "it won't happen everywhere all at once" is as spot on now as before as there is vastly varying rates of EV adoption across the globe and across this country.
Among the posts here, it's pretty obvious in the US now and even back then with other countries's examples, that the EV new vehicle adoption rate change from year to year is unlikely to be static or a linear increase. It's also pretty obvious now that the performance lead of sporty EVs over their sporty ICE vehicle counterparts was no fluke and has only become more pronounced in the years since.
As for my own projections:
Quote:
Originally Posted by OyCrumbler
Right, it's not about enthusiasm, but whether or not EVs do or eventually will fit the use cases. Like, is the EV the better value proposition for your current situation dependent on how you use it, where you live, what your budget is, etc. For a lot more people than may be aware of it, and this certainly isn't anyone's "fault" so much as how quickly the technology has moved though there certainly is a lot of misinformation about them, the EV is probably a pretty good value proposition. And given the current trends in the underlying technology and how deployment has gone so far, it's going to be a good fit, not just a shoehorning, for more and more people in the coming years not so much because they love EVs, but because they will hold certain advantages over ICE vehicles.
My guess is about 2022 for double digit market share of new cars in the US, and 2028 for majority market share of new cars in the US. This is more aggressive than most projections, but I think there's a network effect that will happen with fast charging stations and additionally the massive investment in EVs due to EU and Chinese environmental regulations will cause a quick shift among automakers where they will be moved to make better EVs faster and then might want to recoup more of that massive investment in changing over by trying to push for sales in the US.
I've in subsequent posts clarified the double digit as plug-ins (including plug-in hybrids) and that it's for highway capable light duty vehicles of the four-wheeled variety (so not including semis, e-bikes, mopeds, tanks, etc.) and for at least a month for *new* vehicle sales. That's a lot of stipulations, but I think it's better to get rid of some of the ambiguity. I in subsequent posts altered it to 2023 for double-digits instead of 2022. I do think 2023 seems likely still, but I got it wrong here with saying 2022. Shortly afterwards, I restated it as 2023 instead of 2022, but I definitely said 2022 at least on one occasion.
From there:
It looks like we've got a decent first month of 2023 and in the site, it looks like in December 2022 as well where there was a massive sales spike for EVs. I didn't and still don't have anything close to absolute certainty behind it, but was just guessing on projections and mostly via how market share in countries that were further "ahead" on the adoption curve were going. I think I had a prediction for this earlier than this (as in the prediction was stated earlier, not that double-digit market share would be reached earlier), but I couldn't find it or perhaps it wasn't this forum/site.
Also in that quoted post is the next prediction with roughly the same conditions, but for majority as in 50% or greater new vehicle market share for plugins with at least a month of sales in 2028 or earlier within the US and vehicles specific to light-duty highway-legal four-wheelers. Of course, I'm not certain of it as I wasn't certain of the double-digit prediction, but since the earlier prediction wasn't too bad (and subsequently was mostly for 2023 which does seem accurate), then I reckon it makes me feel a bit better about this subsequent prediction. Some time in 2028 seems like a good chance to me while some time 2030 seems like a very high chance.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 02-19-2023 at 03:35 PM..
8% of Light Duty Vehicles is a good many, and 4x over what it was from 2018-2020. I think with the current products, that curve might start to level off, except, there are a significant number of new electric models coming on the market in the next 3 years, which could keep that curve steep for at least that long.
To me, an important question is when and at what level will that curve level off? I actually don't have a prediction, I think there are too many factors in play to have any confidence in a prediction. Ultimately, if we get a nationwide mandate, then it will by definition level off at 100%, because nothing else will be legal to sell. Barring that, it could level off at say 50% though...
8% of Light Duty Vehicles is a good many, and 4x over what it was from 2018-2020. I think with the current products, that curve might start to level off, except, there are a significant number of new electric models coming on the market in the next 3 years, which could keep that curve steep for at least that long.
To me, an important question is when and at what level will that curve level off? I actually don't have a prediction, I think there are too many factors in play to have any confidence in a prediction. Ultimately, if we get a nationwide mandate, then it will by definition level off at 100%, because nothing else will be legal to sell. Barring that, it could level off at say 50% though...
Right, I think with the good many new entries as well as the good many revised entries where products like the various Tesla and GM models which are newly available for credits that were excluded from such even a few years ago along with the the new vehicles in MY2024 are up for massive and possibly consequential changes means this year, especially towards the tail end of this year, are up for very different levels of attractiveness and competitiveness. It's hard to tell where they'll land in regards to price and utility value, but it does seem like they'll be much more attractive than in 2019 when this thread was first launched.
What strikes me is the incredible conviction people had just a few year's back about this. It didn't seem warranted then and it certainly doesn't seem warranted now. In the face of seeing bad predictions from back then and with some though not all (hopefully the many posters back then in this topic didn't succumb to the very trying prior past few years) of the posters then, realize that this is a new era of engineering and have now to some extent have embraced it because we really are in a new era of fascinating new engineering. It is a great thing that US companies are taking part of this and in some sense leading the way. There are certainly a lot of issues to tackle, but even in light of the past few decades where US automakers have had a very difficult time, we are seeing US automakers seeing some success both here and abroad.
There was and continues be the spectre that US automakers will not be able to adequately meet the competition and would have to continue to rely on the chicken tax and yet even with that continue to lose market share in the US and continue to be, and I don't say this lightly, obliterated in other markets. EVs have been instead a real turnaround for US automakers even if the general public in the US has some very vocal opponents to this change among both legacy automakers and relatively new upstarts.
Anyhow, I still stand by what I project about a 2023 double digit (at least 10%) new vehicle market share in the US at some point this year. It looks likely to me, and hopefully a lot of that is via manufacturing within the US. This may have seemed a ridiculous projection to some a few years back in 2019, but I reckon it's a much less contentious assertion now that we're actually in 2023. I am curious at this point if anyone thinks it's inconceivable that at some month this year we'll see 10% or higher plug-in new vehicle market share for highway-capable four-wheelers. Are there any takers on a bet now that we're in 2023? Even if you do believe that a month in 2023 would see such, would they also expand to venturing a guess for 2024? Back in 2019 it seems like there would have been quite a few.
As an aside, I'm curious as to where you live in New England, because I wonder if you'd be able to also get better electric vehicles in regards to mass transit as well. I really hope this decade we see the north-south rail link and the MBTA commuter rail system run as a S-Bahn/RER type of system.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 02-20-2023 at 12:27 AM..
1. More charging stations
2. An electric grid that can handle said charging stations
3. A decrease in repair, maintenance, upkeep, insurance, and prices
4. A decrease in slave labor to source lithium and other rare materials
Right, I think with the good many new entries as well as the good many revised entries where products like the various Tesla and GM models which are newly available for credits that were excluded from such even a few years ago along with the the new vehicles in MY2024 are up for massive and possibly consequential changes means this year, especially towards the tail end of this year, are up for very different levels of attractiveness and competitiveness. It's hard to tell where they'll land in regards to price and utility value, but it does seem like they'll be much more attractive than in 2019 when this thread was first launched.
What strikes me is the incredible conviction people had just a few year's back about this. It didn't seem warranted then and it certainly doesn't seem warranted now. In the face of seeing bad predictions from back then and with some though not all (hopefully the many posters back then in this topic didn't succumb to the very trying prior past few years) of the posters then, realize that this is a new era of engineering and have now to some extent have embraced it because we really are in a new era of fascinating new engineering. It is a great thing that US companies are taking part of this and in some sense leading the way. There are certainly a lot of issues to tackle, but even in light of the past few decades where US automakers have had a very difficult time, we are seeing US automakers seeing some success both here and abroad.
There was and continues be the spectre that US automakers will not be able to adequately meet the competition and would have to continue to rely on the chicken tax and yet even with that continue to lose market share in the US and continue to be, and I don't say this lightly, obliterated in other markets. EVs have been instead a real turnaround for US automakers even if the general public in the US has some very vocal opponents to this change among both legacy automakers and relatively new upstarts.
Anyhow, I still stand by what I project about a 2023 double digit (at least 10%) new vehicle market share in the US at some point this year. It looks likely to me, and hopefully a lot of that is via manufacturing within the US. This may have seemed a ridiculous projection to some a few years back in 2019, but I reckon it's a much less contentious assertion now that we're actually in 2023. I am curious at this point if anyone thinks it's inconceivable that at some month this year we'll see 10% or higher plug-in new vehicle market share for highway-capable four-wheelers. Are there any takers on a bet now that we're in 2023? Even if you do believe that a month in 2023 would see such, would they also expand to venturing a guess for 2024? Back in 2019 it seems like there would have been quite a few.
As an aside, I'm curious as to where you live in New England, because I wonder if you'd be able to also get better electric vehicles in regards to mass transit as well. I really hope this decade we see the north-south rail link and the MBTA commuter rail system run as a S-Bahn/RER type of system.
Certainly, some people are just nay-sayers, who are opposed, and so all the comments they make are negative, and all the predictions they make are essentially "This is never gonna work". They say these things almost without regard to facts on the ground - they want EVs to fail. Of course they have their parallels on the booster side, FWIW.
I agree - if things go well this year, we could easily hit a 10% market share for PEVs - just looking at what's gone on the past few years. Chevy has both the Equinox and the Blazer EVs, plus the Silverado electric pickup coming out this year - all on the new Ultium platform, and Hyundai has a next generation Kona EV built on a real EV platform. These new moderately priced products have the potential to make a big impact and could keep the good times rolling for EVs, if the automakers don't stumble (like Toyota, Subaru and Mazda did with their maiden EVs).
I think you follow these things closer than I. There is a flat spot for two years in the sales chart, spanning 2018-2020. Do you have any idea what real world factors caused that slowdown in adoption?
As my signature says, I live in Newburyport, MA, which is on the north coast of Massachusetts, at the outer circle of Boston/Cambridge suburbs, and have worked in Cambridge for most of the past 25 years. Newburyport is nearly 40 miles from the Kendall Square neighborhood in Cambridge. There is a pretty good commuter rail right from my fair city to North Station in Boston. Although the ride on the commuter rail is very pleasant, I don't take it very often, as it's about 1hr for the train, you need to get to the station a little early, and then when you get to the other end you need to do local transport and walk, and all in all it's probably 1hr40mins from when I walk out my door at home to when I walk in the door at the office; then there's the reduced flexibility about when you come and go. Driving is no picnic either mind you, it's almost 40 miles and the traffic sucks, but driving sucks a little bit less than taking mass transit. ;-) Since the pandemic, I have worked remotely 90% of the time in my research informatics role, which has reduced the stress of the daily grind greatly. What is the S-Bahn/RER system?
Last edited by OutdoorLover; 02-20-2023 at 05:31 AM..
I live in a condo with no place to charge an electric.
My 11 year old gas car has not quite reached the 40000 mile mark. I do not see an electric in my future ever.
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