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I think it will depend on the market. For each market, it will depend on EV production / purchase % of total cars bought as well as government policies. I think the market would have to be going around 50% EV at the time. At that time the continuing growth of EVs will be obvious to most and purchases of ICE vehicles will slow down (due to people waiting). Also many governments have and eventually will ban restrict ICE sales due to pollution health concerns (and global warming). But they will wait to see EV supply is there.
In Norway this could happen in like 5 years. In the U.S., probably between 10 and 15.
Somebody’s drunk on the Koolaid. Look up F-150 sales vs Tesla sales and get back with us.
Good point in regards to education... or in the case of your post, lack of education. You're using a single unreliable manufacturer to claim that an entire category is reliable. The BMW i3 gets Consumer Reports' top marks for reliability and the Nissan Leaf, Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro are not far behind.
In your case, it's education, but in many others, it's the 20% use-case where ICE really excels (long distance trips, etc.).
Good point in regards to education... or in the case of your post, lack of education. You're using a single unreliable manufacturer to claim that an entire category is reliable. The BMW i3 gets Consumer Reports' top marks for reliability and the Nissan Leaf, Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro are not far behind.
In your case, it's education, but in many others, it's the 20% use-case where ICE really excels (long distance trips, etc.).
That single unreliable manufacturer happens to be the biggest seller of EVs. The Kona and newest Leaf just came out.
I didn’t state the entire category was unreliable. I stated that an EV drivetrain itself doesn’t guarantee reliability as the largest maker of EVs are also among the worst in reliability.
Just because something doesn’t have moving parts doesn’t make it simple.
The market for electric vehicles will be saturated, soon after a few more automakers introduce their versions. Some of them are going to lose billions, and some of those may be bankrupted.
I think it will depend on the market. For each market, it will depend on EV production / purchase % of total cars bought as well as government policies. I think the market would have to be going around 50% EV at the time. At that time the continuing growth of EVs will be obvious to most and purchases of ICE vehicles will slow down (due to people waiting). Also many governments have and eventually will ban restrict ICE sales due to pollution health concerns (and global warming). But they will wait to see EV supply is there.
In Norway this could happen in like 5 years. In the U.S., probably between 10 and 15.
I don't care about Norway. I'd put money on it that your wrong about the US...
I don't care about Norway. I'd put money on it that your wrong about the US...
Do you really believe that all of all the people who bought a new F150 will switch to a EV you are all crazy. Look at what Ford sold in 2018. I don’t see the EV market coming close to this.
If the 2018 pace keeps up, sales could reach an estimated 941,100 units. In the first half of 2018, Ford sold more than 450,000 F-Series trucks. That comes out to about one sale every 35 seconds.
So while the major automakers will have some EV they will not give up their bread and butter ice vehicles.
Do you really believe that all of all the people who bought a new F150 will switch to a EV you are all crazy. Look at what Ford sold in 2018. I don’t see the EV market coming close to this.
If the 2018 pace keeps up, sales could reach an estimated 941,100 units. In the first half of 2018, Ford sold more than 450,000 F-Series trucks. That comes out to about one sale every 35 seconds.
So while the major automakers will have some EV they will not give up their bread and butter ice vehicles.
The electric car is a city car, and a warm weather car.
Get out in the middle of the country, and they are all but none existent.
I was at our local large grocery the other day on a quiet Sunday morning. There were 27 midsize and larger SUVs and Pickups, all 4 wheel drive, There were 3 older cars. According to the DMV, there is not one Tesla registered in the entire state.
In our area we do not drive those little bitty cars they sell today. These are constantly getting stuck in the snow, and/or slid off of the road. We drive the type of vehicle that is required to handle the roads in adverse weather.
And deer jumping in front of a car, is another problem. The average deer hit, costs $12,500 to repair. So we use deer guards when we are going to be on the roads in much of the state. They are built for SUVs and Pickups.
With a deer guard, you don't have an average repair cost of $12,000 and up.
With a deer guard, you just go through a car wash to get rid of the blood and guts.
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