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Once the majority of consumers prefer an EV to a ICE vehicle, demand for gas cars will likely plummet vs supply at current prices. Therefore resale values will tank.
When do you think resale values will drop 50% to what they are now?
I think you're prompt is flawed because you're asking when will resale values drop 50% from what they are now once the majority of consumer prefer an EV to an ICE, and we don't have a timeframe of when that will be.
The best response I can give is that the "market is." That is the market is the market and there are many factors (mostly scarcity, quantity, and demand) that dictates price. As it stands today, the average priced new car is $34K (including EVs and consumer cars by exotic makers) and the resale price typically drops to 50% of the original sale price after 4-5yrs/50K-80K miles. There are outliers with utility value or TINA (there is no alternative), like the Rav4, Tacoma, Miata, S2000, Wrangler, etc that have higher than average resale value. Then you have some that just plummet like fleet vehicles, repair-prone luxury vehicles, etc.
I own two used EVs and two used turbodiesels. I live in a metro area with a huge diesel, biodiesel, HPD, and EV infrastructure and have the luxury of space for 8 vehicles on my property. I realize that most of the country is not setup this way and will take years of advancement and for costs to come down before the average American would consider an EV. When do I think this will happen? I'd give it 8 years to see some serious and convenient infrastructure with 200+ mile range EVs at below $25K MSRP (in today's dollar) and then we'll see the demand up. The low cost of ownership and utility is quite amazing.
There will always be ICE vehicles somewhere. I believe the pure electric cars will gradually gain a market in the urban areas and with technology improvements they will be used by commuters in the x-burbs over the years.
I don't see ICE vehicles "tanking" since they aren't investments. They will gradually be replaced and fewer new ICE cars would be produced. It all depends on technology; until the scientists develop quick charging and a 400 mile+ range it would be difficult to justify for a lot of people.
Most Gas Resale Values drops 50% in about 5 years mark with or without EV's.
The EV's have no importance to the value of gas vehicles and will not have one in at least 10 years.
Most people I know would never drive and/or purchase an EV since there is no benefit in the grand scheme of real things.
I'm convinced they are a just an intermediary step supported by our taxes towards the next propulsion fuel
which is hydrogen (for now) or cold fusion.
If you're talking about hydrogen being used as a fuel in electric cars with fuel cell batteries, then "maybe" - but where do you get the hydrogen from, methane? May as well just combust the methane. Electrolysis? Inefficient, you may just as well use the electricity used in the electrolysis process to charge batteries. But if you're talking about hydrogen being burned in an internal combustion engine, that's a terrible idea that will never happen for a variety of reasons.
To the post, ALL new cars, IC or electric, are a money pit, they do nothing but depreciate over time. The more expensive they are on day one, the more money their owners will "lose" (use up?) over their lifetime. When the depreciation curve flattens out (maybe ten years after purchase), the loss from depreciation is replaced (or exceeded, depending on the car) by maintenance costs. Like I said, "money pits", all of 'em. And right now, EV's are initially expensive relative to their IC counterparts ($35K Bolt vs. $16K Fit). All cars depreciate faster when new, but if they are used as intended, they get used up and eventually recycled. If you want something that doesn't depreciate over time, buy good, productive land. Or gold.
But to Ze's question, when will IC cars "suddenly" depreciate 50% from where they were the day before? The answer is, when gas prices triple or quadruple overnight, or when hydrocarbon use is outlawed, or some new battery technology appears overnight, like solid state, maybe. But then, so will the current crop of EV's. As they will when flying cars are introduced, that's what I'm really waiting for. Ze is a Forward Thinker who, unfortunately, is way ahead of reality, I'm afraid.
....until the oil companies catch on and throttle back production to the point that gas prices rise back up again.
It’s not that simple. They can’t simply “throttle backâ€. They have oil infrastructure to maintain and loans on drilling equipment to pay off. Otherwise oil prices would be much higher today.
Once the majority of consumers prefer an EV to a ICE vehicle, demand for gas cars will likely plummet vs supply at current prices. Therefore resale values will tank.
When do you think resale values will drop 50% to what they are now?
Never. If there are more EVs there will be less ICEs and the ICEs will become classics...
What you forget is that worries of charging aren't overblown. If you live in an apartment, you don't have a place to charge, end of story.
Interesting point. Now I have to add charging to the rest of the hassle of finding a place to live. I't almost like owning an open top car that needs to be parked under a roof. Good luck with finding rentals.
What is more fun to drive? A Porsche 911 or a Leaf? You're overselling the "fun to drive" factor. A performance vehicle of any kind is more fun to drive than a utility truck, but utility trucks outsell performance cars.
What you forget is that worries of charging aren't overblown. If you live in an apartment, you don't have a place to charge, end of story. If you can make it work, good for you. Some people live exclusively with a motorcycle, and motorcycles are fun, but you don't see motorcyclists asking when cars are going to lose their value once everybody discovers how awesome a motorcycle is. People like you are the reason people hate EVs and EV owners. You're doing more damage than good. If it was a good idea it wouldn't need you to help sell it.
Wow if it were true there wasn't a difference you wouldn't be trying to compare a $90k ICE to a $30k EV.
Another factor many are not considering is the fact that governments will increasingly BAN gas vehicles from entering the city. Once EV production and charging infrastructure improve and can be more readily predicting, the bans will increase in scope and strength. At that point, resale values will plummet.
Another factor many are not considering is the fact that governments will increasingly BAN gas vehicles from entering the city. Once EV production and charging infrastructure improve and can be more readily predicting, the bans will increase in scope and strength. At that point, resale values will plummet.
Or, people will drive as far as they can into the city, and then take public transportation the rest of the way to their destination. There are a lot of "test cases" for the U.S. to watch before committing to this ourselves (is London a good example?) Personally, I myself live in a community that borders Chicago, but only go into the city when I "have" to, otherwise I just avoid it, nothing there for me anymore except congestion, crime, expense, etc.. If it weren't for the airport and having to do jury duty, I might as well live in Galena.
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I know they pollute, but they sure are fun.
