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But crucially, battery energy density is evolving quite slowly. Today's batteries are fundamentally the same lithium-ion batteries, as they were 20+ years ago. Sure, there are substantial reductions in cost per KWh. But there are no substantial increases in KWh/Kg.
I'd argue that the "deep allergy" is less about electric propulsion vs. internal combustion, than the idea of giving up privately owned and privately driven cars, for what amounts to mass-transit. Note that when the horseless carriage supplanted the horse, the fundamental fact remained the same: man on a horse, becomes man in a car. One man, one horse. One man, one car. The more things changed, the more they stayed the same.
If we're all driving a bunch of individually-owned Bolts or Teslas, stored in our driveways, parked in a giant parking-lot at the office, and then at Wal-Mart, and then at the kids' soccer field, well, OK, the drive-system is different, but the fundamental paradigm is the same. Tony Seba's assertion is that we'll surrender our private cars in exchange for riding the autonomous electric short-bus. I doubt that.
The battery is the most expensive component of an EV, so battery cost is a big deal. And all of this effort on battery research, is looking not only at improved Li-ion batteries, but also at a range of other battery compositions, with the goal of improving cost, charge density, and charge rates, while of course retaining or improving lifetimes.
As far as Tony Ceba's predictions...he is of course a thinker and predictor, and they don't get everything right... but actually I think he identifies the fundamental forces correctly and though he may be off in the timing some of his predictions, I think EVs dominating the marketplace is very likely and Transportation as a Service is more likely than not. But:
- He's not predicting a forced end to individual car ownership, he's predicting that for most people, who don't have excessive money, they will prefer to save all that money associated with buying, owning and operating vehicles. People with significant discretionary cash will continue to own cars.
- You can have EVs without TaaS
- You can have TaaS without EVs
The benefit of using EVs for TaaS fleets is that they have longer life, lower maintenance costs and lower operating costs. And then he points out correctly that individuals pay a great deal of money to support their car, but it has very low utilization (he throws out 5%), and that a TaaS fleet by contrast could get very high utilization from these assets, improving the economics significantly beyond what's already achieved. It will be a lot cheaper, and most people will prefer to save money, that's what he's saying. These technologies he cited are all areas of intense R&D efforts - it's capitalism driving this, because providers of goods and services want to be the big players as business evolves. There's a lot of money to be made.
And as to EV opponents being worried mainly about TaaS, I don't think so, I've never heard of it before and never seen anyone mention it here - I think few people are even aware of it. I think it's simply EVs vs ICE vehicles, many people just can't deal with. The average person doesn't like change, whether that's in their company or in their personal life, they find it uncomfortable and for some people, change is threatening or disorienting... for others of course, it's stimulating and provides new opportunities, all depends on your mindset.
Last edited by OutdoorLover; 02-11-2020 at 06:51 AM..
Tesla superchargers cost about $0.26 per kWh. Using M3 numbers at 26 kW per 100 miles, it's costing you $6.76/100 miles.
My wife's Prius gets 50 mpg...at $2.30/gal the cost to go 100 miles is $4.60.
The chargePoint and other chargers cost quite a bit per kWh.
At this point I'd rather just stay with gasoline but eventually the tech will get there. EV's have solid selling points especially as you look into the future.
Where I live, the cheapest gas costs $2,70/gallon and I pay .067/kw for electricity. So the cost to go 100 miles in the Model 3 is .067X75/3.22 = $1.56 while the cost for the Prius to go 100 miles is $5.40 making the Prius more than 3 times more expensive on energy to fuel it than the Model 3....also, the Model 3 is multiple times faster (you say you don't care, well I do) and is much better for the environment.
Where I live, the cheapest gas costs $2,70/gallon and I pay .067/kw for electricity. So the cost to go 100 miles in the Model 3 is .067X75/3.22 = $1.56 while the cost for the Prius to go 100 miles is $5.40 making the Prius more than 3 times more expensive on energy to fuel it than the Model 3....also, the Model 3 is multiple times faster (you say you don't care, well I do) and is much better for the environment.
WA state definitely has the cheapest electricity costs and is nowhere near the national average.
It's debatable how much better buying a new car is vs driving and older, still, very clean car.
From my last electric bill, my cost per kWh, including all 7 charge line items from the bill, was $43.38/309 kWh or $0.140 per kWh, which isn't far off the national average. The Chevy Bolt, according to the EPA, uses 29 kWh to go 100 miles. So that would be $0.140/kWh * 29 kWh/100mi = $4.06 per 100 miles. You're right that with cheap enough gas and a stingy enough ICE vehicle, you can just about equal that figure. I think most gas is higher and most people are driving cars that get half the mileage of that Prius.
In addition to the "fuel" cost, you should also consider the maintenance costs. The guy who wrote the first article that I linked on the Bolt, said that he spent $75 over 3 years on maintenance.
Yes the discussion was about road trips and using charging stations, which charge quite a bit more than most people pay at home.
Still, to your example, buy a brand new $40,000 car to save $50 in fuel a year...not that smart.
Yes the discussion was about road trips and using charging stations, which charge quite a bit more than most people pay at home.
Still, to your example, buy a brand new $40,000 car to save $50 in fuel a year...not that smart.
Yea, though I doubt fuel savings is the primary component for most people when deciding to get an EV versus an ICE vehicle.
Prius does have plug-in hybrid versions with the Prius Prime. I wouldn’t be surprised if the next iteration of that, which is likely to come within the next few years (current generation has been out since 2016), has at least 35 miles of battery-only range to cover the majority of people’s daily commute.
What I’m hoping for is that some EV automaker, whether pure or hybrid, comes out with a vehicle that has at least 50 miles of battery-only range, has a less than 30k sticker price before incentives, and is efficient enough to charge at least 50 miles off a standard outlet in five hours or less (10 miles per hour of charge). The range is obviously reachable and the sticker price is something we’re getting close to given the precipitous drop in battery prices. The efficiency is maybe the hardest part to get to.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 02-11-2020 at 08:58 AM..
Yes the discussion was about road trips and using charging stations, which charge quite a bit more than most people pay at home.
Still, to your example, buy a brand new $40,000 car to save $50 in fuel a year...not that smart.
Ahh, but if you're going to be buying a new car already, a $25k new car that saves that fuel cost and maintenance cost and is quick, luxurious and handles good IS a smart buy.
And the frequency of road trips as WAY down there for cars that are commuters and errand runners. Still I don't think you understand just how far 250 miles is. I road tripped all over the Chesapeake bay area for 4 hours and only used half my charge. Never charged while out and about. 4 hours is a decent, fun day trip length, and I could have done 8 hours with a lunch break in the middle. If I only have to worry about a ChargePoint or EVGo paid plug once ever few months, I'm still saving MUCH more than $50 in fuel a year. And vs the BMW 7 series I had before this, I'm saving a bunch in fuel and at least as much in maintenance and repairs and still getting the luxurious silent acceleration and great handling and even sharper throttle response.
Not every car purchase comes down to absolute lowest cost, buying the cheapest beater you can just to get through life. I bought the modern equivalent of the hot hatch, with 200 hp and 260 lb ft of torque, kind of like a silent, quick GTI or Focus ST, and at $25k for a new '20, it was a great deal.
Ahh, but if you're going to be buying a new car already, a $25k new car that saves that fuel cost and maintenance cost and is quick, luxurious and handles good IS a smart buy.
And the frequency of road trips as WAY down there for cars that are commuters and errand runners. Still I don't think you understand just how far 250 miles is. I road tripped all over the Chesapeake bay area for 4 hours and only used half my charge. Never charged while out and about. 4 hours is a decent, fun day trip length, and I could have done 8 hours with a lunch break in the middle. If I only have to worry about a ChargePoint or EVGo paid plug once ever few months, I'm still saving MUCH more than $50 in fuel a year. And vs the BMW 7 series I had before this, I'm saving a bunch in fuel and at least as much in maintenance and repairs and still getting the luxurious silent acceleration and great handling and even sharper throttle response.
Not every car purchase comes down to absolute lowest cost, buying the cheapest beater you can just to get through life. I bought the modern equivalent of the hot hatch, with 200 hp and 260 lb ft of torque, kind of like a silent, quick GTI or Focus ST, and at $25k for a new '20, it was a great deal.
Do you have a level 2 charger at home?
Have you ever charged from a regular socket? If you have, what's the miles per hour of charging that you're getting with that?
Have you ever charged from a regular socket? If you have, what's the miles per hour of charging that you're getting with that?
I have a Clarity PHEV, and only use the 110 volt wall plug in my garage. Takes about 10 hours or so to get 45 miles worth, which is a full battery. The first 80% is fast, about five hours, that last 20 takes about the same time.
Have you ever charged from a regular socket? If you have, what's the miles per hour of charging that you're getting with that?
I have a level 2 charger at home that I installed for my Volt and now use for both cars (the Volt charges so quick that I just top it off and then swap over to the Bolt). i HAVE charged from 110v for a couple years with the Volt. It was annoying that you have to manually set it to charge at 12a instead of the default 8a every time you want to use it. But in the Volt, I'm only charging half the capacity on any given night, so it really didn't take too long regardless.
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