Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I agree that oil usage won't disappear abruptly and completely in the next 10-20 years. First of all, I believe you'll have a long "tail" for ICE vehicles washing out of general usage, and then there's e.g. burning it as heating oil, fueling gas and diesel boats, ships and trains...
Then, while it has little to do with atmospheric carbon emissions, we will NEED oil as a carbon source for all kinds of petroleum-derived products, like varnishes, polyurethanes, paints, glues, resins for use in composites like fiberglass, plastics, all *kinds* of organic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, solvents, etc, etc, etc.
I can see ICE vehicles being a minority of new vehicle sales in say 10 years though, and just a small fraction of new vehicle sales in 20 years. And electrifying urban/suburban diesel trains is already attractive in the long haul - it costs more to set up, but then you get lower operating costs, lower maintenance costs, higher reliability and greater uptime. Similarly, both natural gas and the latest electric heat pumps are already more attractive for residential heating than oil boilers and furnaces - cheaper, cleaner and more reliable... it takes time for these changes to occur, but it won't take forever.
I've heard of comparing apples to oranges, but this is comparing Apples to Teslas (bad analogy, RIP Apple engineer in his Tesla).
Comparing last year's sales numbers to threads in a forum... I can answer that one for you. There are ALWAYS more people talking about buying, than buying.
Not sure I understand your point. Very few EVs are being bought. But quite a lot of space on here is being taken up by EVs.
I don’t know how else to say it.
You conveniently ignored 90% of my questions. if Big Oil is fueling even EVs, then why is Big Oil (and you) so vehemently opposed to EVs? Why are you scared of them? Why do you like tailpipe pollution?
Why do you WANT to pollute? Why does your side of the government WANT to pollute? Why is that a GOOD thing? Even if you don't believe in man made climate change you shouldn't want to suck on tailpipe emissions.
Again, using natural gas and renewables to power the grid is orders of magnitude cleaner than oil production, refinement and BURNING petroleum in a couple hundred million individual point sources of tailpipe emissions. And there hasn't been a battery/lithium spill on the magnitude of the Deepwater Horizon, Exxon Valdez, or any of the oil pipeline bursts. How many billons have been spent on the cleanup of oil accidents? How many trillions have been spent on wars in the ME to keep the oil flowing for our allies?
Even if EVs aren't perfect (and they're not), they are quite a bit better, and every little bit counts. Are you of the mindset that if it can't be done perfectly, then it shouldn't even be attempted? Which goes back the question, why do you WANT to pollute? What's in it for you?
I've already explained why I like modern EVs, and it's for a myriad of reasons, mostly centering around performance measures, and how they feel to drive (quickness, agility, smoothness, quietness). The convenience of having a "full tank" every morning without ever having to visit a gas station is a bonus, and environmental concerns are way down the list. But I've been studying them for decades, from when they were mainly hobbyist projects to their mainstream production. I've seen people like you get progressively more and more scared and more and more insultingly vehemently outspoken against them. And the reasoning tends to be spurious and false, and often contradictory. And it goes back to the questions of why do you want to pollute? And what's in it for you?
Watched a video this evening that supports most of your assertions, especially on lifecycle emission and state vs. state "greenness". The orator goes pretty quickly, so one may have to watch it twice or take notes to get the full effect (Engineering Explained). He doesn't appear to be a shill for either side, he appears to strive for fairness:
I'm so glad EV's are gaining popularity, even when forces like the current U.S. govt. is trying to quash their advance. I live near the Rivian plant that just got over a billion dollars in investment from Ford and Amazon, and of course their pick up is going to be incredible, unlike the Tesla truck. It will, however, carry a sticker price that makes it unaffordable to the average consumer.
Last edited by odanny; 02-13-2020 at 11:39 AM..
Reason: Correct my mistake
I'm so glad EV's are gaining popularity, even when forces like the current U.S. govt. is trying to quash their advance. I live near the Rivian plant that just got over a billion dollars in investment from Ford and Amazon, and of course their pick up is going to be incredible, unlike the Tesla truck. It will, however, carry a sticker price that makes it affordable to the average consumer.
Rivian is starting at $69k. That is almost triple the average new car sales price when you remove pickup trucks from the data ($24k). Average consumer? Hardly.
Rivian is starting at $69k. That is almost triple the average new car sales price when you remove pickup trucks from the data ($24k). Average consumer? Hardly.
Why remove pickups, the Rivian's direct competition, from the data? Only to obfuscate the truth.
Rivian is starting at $69k. That is almost triple the average new car sales price when you remove pickup trucks from the data ($24k). Average consumer? Hardly.
I meant to type "unaffordable", typo totally changed what I was saying there.
I'm so glad EV's are gaining popularity, even when forces like the current U.S. govt. is trying to quash their advance. I live near the Rivian plant that just got over a billion dollars in investment from Ford and Amazon, and of course their pick up is going to be incredible, unlike the Tesla truck. It will, however, carry a sticker price that makes it unaffordable to the average consumer.
???
The government is giving thousands of dollars to people who buy EVs........no matter how rich the person is.
But anyways, that's besides the point. I'm just wondering why the mania.
Last year, EVs were 1-2% of cars sold.
Yet at this moment, 5 of the 10 most recently-bumped threads on here are about EVs! (This is typical).
Clearly, there is something bizarre going on.......so what gives?
"What gives."
Uhm, they are inevitable.
They are interesting, as the tech is finally maturing. Lots of discussion around all that needs to come together for some sort of critical mass, where they start sweeping IC aside. That will include:
- Effective range
- Time to charge acceptably low
- Sufficient chargers
- a pricing model for the previous, maybe?
- Competitive cost with low-cost IC
There will come a day, I dunno when (guessing 15 years) when your average consumer, who is a 100 IQ drone, won't think twice about picking up an EV vs. a IC. There won't be a convenience loss, there will be a gain. Then, IC is a liability. At that point, some ******* jurisdiction in CA (probably) can start passing laws limiting IC, or making it so painful that no IC can pass emissions. Then there won't be any in (City, county). That could spread, when critical mass is reached.
It may never happen, but I think it will. A country's petroleum use will decline by some major percentage. OPEC can sod off. The world will change. There will be holdovers like India and China.
Like self-driving: when they have enough millions of miles under the belt, they can start rolling it out more and more. When the cost of the average wrongful death lawsuit is low enough compared to the benefits, you'll see ever-more self-driving cars. Obviously.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
