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Carmax says that cars with manual transmissions are 3.7% of their sales, down from 25.6% in 1995.
Why did 25.6% of their car buyers choose manual transmissions in 1995? Was it because they couldn't afford the extra $1000 or $1200 for one with an automatic? Because the cars they wanted didn't offer automatics? Or was it because they had a lot more choices, with more models available with either transmission, so they picked the one they wanted?
But if it’s about that cost, wouldn’t manufacturers have dropped the automatic instead if Americans preferred manuals? Are they certifying every single individual car or just one of every combination offered? Also, how did the various European countries, some of which have had fairly stringent emissions regulations and all with markets far smaller than the US, still end up with so many manual transmissions for sale while also offering automatic transmissions?
They have to certify an example of every possible combination of engine, transmission, and rear (or front) gear ratio offered. It's not cheap, because I seem to recall they also have to do something like a 50,000 mile drive cycle, which along with being expensive, also takes a bit of time.
Let's take a look back, just for grins, and consider an all-time classic, the '69 Chevelle, and one of the last years for that car to be available before all the smog regulations kicked in.
To the best of my memory, there was one 6 cylinder engine offered, and then a "base" 307 V-8, a couple of 350 V-8s, and three versions of the 396 V-8. There was a "base" 3 speed manual, the first "step-up" was an automatic, then there were two available 4 speed manuals. And I seem to recall there were 5 different rear gear ratios available, from 3.08: up to 4.10:1. Plus, there were two differentials available, an "open" unit and a "limited slip" unit. Think of the humungous number of combinations possible, and starting in '71, IIRC, they ALL had to be certified, in order to be sold.
With respect to Europe, if I understand the situation correctly, the drivers there are still "automotive enthusiasts", who actually enjoy driving, as well as being engaged in the experience. They also are very fuel mileage conscious, due to the cost of gas. That's why many European cars are offered with manual transmissions. However, to satisfy the American market, they also offer automatics, and given the American's preference for autos, they frequently only offer an auto here, so they don't have to smog/gas mileage certify two different cars. However, the "paddle shift" automatics can satisfy a stick shift enthusiast.
That doesn't say as much for the sales of EVs as it does for the lack of sales of manual transmissions, with so few of them available now. Despite being the ultimate anti-theft device, only 3 pickups are now available with a manual transmission - the new Jeep Gladiator, the base Nissan Frontier, and some trim levels of the Toyota Tacoma.
Most of the people where I live who would steal cars do know how to drive manual.
They have to certify an example of every possible combination of engine, transmission, and rear (or front) gear ratio offered. It's not cheap, because I seem to recall they also have to do something like a 50,000 mile drive cycle, which along with being expensive, also takes a bit of time.
Let's take a look back, just for grins, and consider an all-time classic, the '69 Chevelle, and one of the last years for that car to be available before all the smog regulations kicked in.
To the best of my memory, there was one 6 cylinder engine offered, and then a "base" 307 V-8, a couple of 350 V-8s, and three versions of the 396 V-8. There was a "base" 3 speed manual, the first "step-up" was an automatic, then there were two available 4 speed manuals. And I seem to recall there were 5 different rear gear ratios available, from 3.08: up to 4.10:1. Plus, there were two differentials available, an "open" unit and a "limited slip" unit. Think of the humungous number of combinations possible, and starting in '71, IIRC, they ALL had to be certified, in order to be sold.
With respect to Europe, if I understand the situation correctly, the drivers there are still "automotive enthusiasts", who actually enjoy driving, as well as being engaged in the experience. They also are very fuel mileage conscious, due to the cost of gas. That's why many European cars are offered with manual transmissions. However, to satisfy the American market, they also offer automatics, and given the American's preference for autos, they frequently only offer an auto here, so they don't have to smog/gas mileage certify two different cars. However, the "paddle shift" automatics can satisfy a stick shift enthusiast.
When I was in Germany, it seemed like all of the ubers I took were automatics. But I think that's because drivers can't use their personal cars to Uber, as opposed to the states.
The "car guys" in the NYC area seem to love manual transmission 90s Hondas and Nissans.
So there you have it; there does exist a demand for manual, but it's satisfied by people buying old cars, not so much with people paying 20k who aren't that into cars.
CVT (Snowmobile / go-cart tranny) is the CHEAP 'go-to' for manufacturing, but a killer expense to repair - leading to more 'throw-away' cars. Expect that to continue to be the path of marketing. Works well for ink cartridges / shoes / clothes / electronics... planned obsolescence feeding future sales. Very environmentally and energy wasteful, but very aligned with many vehicle consumers, and makes marketing / finance smile ear-to-ear.
Expect 'vending machine' EV's, much like the e-scooter craze.
Simple enough to do, convenient for much of urban society.
RFID ("Real ID") could be tapped to make this very possible and ez to implement.
CVTs used in snowmobiles and go-carts can be low quality. But, as we know, there are quite sophisticated and resilient CVTs in cars today. Some of the most reliable cars on the road use CVTs.
For those who remember, there were also choices is rear axle ratios, too. However, because the government made the manufacturers smog/fuel mileage certify EVERY possible choice of engine/transmission/rear axle ratio as a separate entity, it became too expensive, so they simply cut the "choices" to one or two (maybe).
It's too expensive to product something like manual transmissions when there's no demand for it. Simply for the reason of having a choice is not enough for a manufacturing plan to maintain a manual transmission assembly line. The real challenge with manual transmissions is that no one wants them.
They have to certify an example of every possible combination of engine, transmission, and rear (or front) gear ratio offered. It's not cheap, because I seem to recall they also have to do something like a 50,000 mile drive cycle, which along with being expensive, also takes a bit of time.
Let's take a look back, just for grins, and consider an all-time classic, the '69 Chevelle, and one of the last years for that car to be available before all the smog regulations kicked in.
To the best of my memory, there was one 6 cylinder engine offered, and then a "base" 307 V-8, a couple of 350 V-8s, and three versions of the 396 V-8. There was a "base" 3 speed manual, the first "step-up" was an automatic, then there were two available 4 speed manuals. And I seem to recall there were 5 different rear gear ratios available, from 3.08: up to 4.10:1. Plus, there were two differentials available, an "open" unit and a "limited slip" unit. Think of the humungous number of combinations possible, and starting in '71, IIRC, they ALL had to be certified, in order to be sold.
With respect to Europe, if I understand the situation correctly, the drivers there are still "automotive enthusiasts", who actually enjoy driving, as well as being engaged in the experience. They also are very fuel mileage conscious, due to the cost of gas. That's why many European cars are offered with manual transmissions. However, to satisfy the American market, they also offer automatics, and given the American's preference for autos, they frequently only offer an auto here, so they don't have to smog/gas mileage certify two different cars. However, the "paddle shift" automatics can satisfy a stick shift enthusiast.
The certification costs are minimal compared to maintain the assembly line for a transmission that Americans just don't want.
Also, America has plenty of automotive enthusiasts that enjoy driving cars with automatic transmission. It can be very engaging if you have a reasonable car. Don't expect it with your Civic.
I agree that Europeans are very conscious about the cost of gasoline. That is why we are seeing automatic transmissions, hybrids, and EVs growing there more than ever. Now that computerized automatic transmissions are more fuel efficient than manual transmissions, Europeans are shifting towards them. There's an added upfront cost, but we'll have to see how that pans out in the future.
The "car guys" in the NYC area seem to love manual transmission 90s Hondas and Nissans.
So there you have it; there does exist a demand for manual, but it's satisfied by people buying old cars, not so much with people paying 20k who aren't that into cars.
This is a good point. My old Jeep Wrangler is a manual and is fun to drive. My 2018 BMW M4 is an automatic and is even more fun to drive. People who say that automatics are not fun or not engaging say that because they are trying to get the "fun" out of a Honda Civic. They haven't driven a real fun and engaging car.
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