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All-electric cars have hit a new record 54% market share of Norway’s total new cars sales in 2020 – showing that the goal of 100% of new car sales being all-electric by 2025 is achievable. https://electrek.co/2021/01/07/all-e...e-norway-2020/
Plugins reached 50% in Norway just four years ago and now it's at 85%. Next year is a likely candidate to reach 90% if the Tesla Berlin factory gets up and running with Model 3 and Model Y (which hasn't even been introduced to the European market yet) and with the introduction of multiple new EVs in Europe which sells EVs on both the very low and high end of costs. I assume the Audi Q4 e-tron will sell very well there as well the E-GMP based Hyundai and Kia vehicles which are all to be released this year and will probably ramp up production to have a pretty good start in the next.
It's true that the very last few percentage points on a S-curve are usually the hardest as that's where the rarer, specifically inimical to EV adoption use cases probably are, so the 35% shift from 50% to 85% plugins over the last four years isn't going to replay itself in the coming four, and of course, getting to 120% market share doesn't make sense. However, 95% adoption rate / vast majority of new vehicles being plugins before 2025 should be fairly easy.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 07-06-2021 at 09:55 AM..
Instead of celebrations and back slapping, how about some information? What was the electricity production in Norway 5 years ago? What is it now? Where did it come from?
Instead of celebrations and back slapping, how about some information? What was the electricity production in Norway 5 years ago? What is it now? Where did it come from?
Norway set an electricity production record last year with 153.2 TWh produced--as that's a record, it's obviously been going up. Vast majority of Norway's electricity production has been from hydro which produces almost 90% of the electricity. The majority of the rest is from wind power which has been growing and produces about 10% of the electricity, so together virtually the entire electrical supply has been via hydro and wind. The wind power is intermittent, but Norway also utilizes its hydroelectric resources for pumped storage, so it banks that energy if wind ends up greatly exceeding need both in Norway and the need of other connected grids, though Norway oftentimes does export its electricity to the extent where on net for an extended period of time its an exporter despite periods where it imports instead.
In addition to installing wind, Norway's also been working on long distance transmission to other places such as Germany and the UK in addition to its current links to its Scandinavian neighbors, refurbishing existing older hydro plants to be more efficient, and installing some modicum of solar in its southern reaches which while still low in total amount, has been rapidly growing as even in Norway despite its lower level of solar irradiance compared to almost any part of the US outside of parts of Alaska, the levelized cost of energy for solar can be favorable compared to other means of electrical generation.
I'm not sure what the celebration and back slapping you're talking about here, or what the lack of information you're referring to. People have posted stats on market share for vehicles which seems pretty pertinent to an automotive forum. Are you looking for just anything to get ornery? Try this: https://www.channel4.com/news/revealed-exxonmobils-lobbying-war-on-climate-change-legislation
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 07-07-2021 at 10:47 AM..
Instead of celebrations and back slapping, how about some information?
I think the key point is that Norway broke 50% BEV sales only in 2020 and now 6 months later they are at 64.7% BEVs. In the next two years, there should be a hundred new models to buy from so it is very possible that with their tax incentives they will accomplish their goal of 100% BEV sales by the year 2025.
As the first country (or state) to convert to EVs in the world they are naturally of interest. The average transaction price of a private vehicle is now $62,000. Oslo has spent the last 15 years making a quantum leap in improvement in their bicycle lanes, and I expect they will increase lanes for electric scooters. We'll see if they introduce autonomous electric taxis in the next 4 years.
I don't think conversion to EVs can be done without increasing other transportation options. Just as it necessitates improvements in electricity generation.
Although Norway is not well connected to automobile traffic from other countries, there are obviously roads from Sweden and a bridge from Denmark to Sweden, so the question of tourists that arrive from Europe via automobile will come up in a few years.
Will there be a backlash from the ~1 million people that live in the northern spine of Norway and may object to frequent recharging required on a driving trip from the arctic city of Tromso to Oslo (over 1000 miles). Will people end up doing that trip by bus and train (30 hours) since driving with recharging stops may take almost as long.
Although the report doesn't say, I suspect that the 15% of sales of ICE and full hybrids are primarily to this population, In four years will the government relent and allow people to continue to at least purchase plug-in hybrids.
Norway, with a population of 5.4 million should be followed by the Netherlands with a population of 17.6 milliion in five years, but the Netherlands has 11% of the land area of Norway. So Norway is somewhat of a better indicator of how life might be like in the American West. The Netherlands has a density closer to the American East Coast, but try to imagine the mid Atlantic if gasoline cost ~$8 a gallon.
Last edited by PacoMartin; 07-08-2021 at 10:14 AM..
I think the key point is that Norway broke 50% BEV sales only in 2020 and now 6 months later they are at 64.7% BEVs. In the next two years, there should be a hundred new models to buy from so it is very possible that with their tax incentives they will accomplish their goal of 100% BEV sales by the year 2025.
As the first country (or state) to convert to EVs in the world they are naturally of interest. The average transaction price of a private vehicle is now $62,000. Oslo has spent the last 15 years making a quantum leap in improvement in their bicycle lanes, and I expect they will increase lanes for electric scooters. We'll see if they introduce autonomous electric taxis in the next 4 years.
I don't think conversion to EVs can be done without increasing other transportation options. Just as it necessitates improvements in electricity generation.
Although Norway is not well connected to automobile traffic from other countries, there are obviously roads from Sweden and a bridge from Denmark to Sweden, so the question of tourists that arrive from Europe via automobile will come up in a few years.
Will there be a backlash from the ~1 million people that live in the northern spine of Norway and may object to frequent recharging required on a driving trip from the arctic city of Tromso to Oslo (over 1000 miles). Will people end up doing that trip by bus and train (30 hours) since driving with recharging stops may take almost as long.
Although the report doesn't say, I suspect that the 15% of sales of ICE and full hybrids are primarily to this population, In four years will the government relent and allow people to continue to at least purchase plug-in hybrids.
Norway, with a population of 5.4 million should be followed by the Netherlands with a population of 17.6 milliion in five years, but the Netherlands has 11% of the land area of Norway. So Norway is somewhat of a better indicator of how life might be like in the American West. The Netherlands has a density closer to the American East Coast, but try to imagine the mid Atlantic if gasoline cost ~$8 a gallon.
Tromso to Oslo is almost invariably done by flying as it's a 20+ hour drive if you don't stop at all. Pretty much no one makes that trip by driving their own vehicle though there have been suggestions of extending the rail network to Tromso mostly for freight purposes, but I reckon they'd run night trains and passenger services if they do make it happen.
The issue of gas stations for cars will be interesting as they'll have less business, but one thing to keep in mind is that there are still plenty of older gas vehicles in Norway and they still make up a majority of the Norwegian car fleet and meanwhile Sweden (about a quarter BEV and a quarter plugin hybrid last month), Germany (a quarter plugins last month split between BEV and plugin hybrids), and Denmark (don't have stats on hand, but supposedly high) along with several other countries are also rapidly moving towards plugins.
EVs seem to have pretty good odds of being fine without better other transportation options given the pace of improvements and where we're at currently with market share and average fleet age, but I do think it's much better policy to have multiple modes that are oftentimes more efficient and better in other ways to improve as well and make it so having your own vehicles are more often an option rather than a necessity. Remember that we're not seeing improvements in just range and purchase price for EVs, but also:
longevity - longer range per charge means that each battery cycle is more miles, so 3,000 cycles for a 263 mile per charge vehicle is a lot more total miles than 3,000 cycles for a 73 mile per charge vehicle
efficiency - part of the cost coming down has been higher energy density batteries with less material used per kWh of capacity and other parts of the EV have also seen efficiency increases which also means time and money spent charging also improve on the per mile and per dollar basis
charging rates - larger battery packs generally come hand in hand with higher max charging rates
public charger availability - just in raw numbers and more locations, but also faster charging rates and higher range mean less time spent charging per vehicle though it remains to be seen how well public charging keeps up with increase of market share
profit margins - scaling and battery improvements have meant that automakers are making money instead of losing money per EV sold which gives impetus to sell more
A lot of these attributes are in a positive feedback loop with the other attributes.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 07-08-2021 at 11:48 AM..
Tromso to Oslo is almost invariably done by flying as it's a 20+ hour drive if you don't stop at all.
Tromso is a small city with an airport so it may have been a bad example. But the three northern regions have a population of just under a million people. That is 17.7% of the population on 40% of the land area of Norway or 3.7 times the area of The Netherlands.
242,168 Troms og Finnmark
240,345 Nordland
471,124 Trøndelag
I suspect that they are probably purchasing most of the ICE and hybrid vehicles. The tax incentives are so compelling towards BEV that you have to have an equally compelling argument to purchase an ICE vehicle.
Tromso is a small city with an airport so it may have been a bad example. But the three northern regions have a population of just under a million people. That is 17.7% of the population on 40% of the land area of Norway or 3.7 times the area of The Netherlands.
242,168 Troms og Finnmark
240,345 Nordland
471,124 Trøndelag
I suspect that they are probably purchasing most of the ICE and hybrid vehicles. The tax incentives are so compelling towards BEV that you have to have an equally compelling argument to purchase an ICE vehicle.
You're still flying for Troms og Finnmark if you're going elsewhere, probably Nordland as well. Nordland is where the current rail service stops and passes through Trøndelag. Troms og Finnmark is very far away from Oslo and you would pretty much never drive that distance unless you were making a road trip with multiple stops where you're spending the night. While the percentage market share isn't as aggressive as down near Oslo, it's not like people up there don't buy EVs as about half of the sales in that northernmost province were BEVs last December and has likely grown since: https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ne...ange-no-longer
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