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This is my fear in buying one of these cars. One can spend easily 60 grand on these cars only to become obsolete overnight. And I mean one could not even think about reselling..
The only answer to this is to not buy one unless you really want one and are happy to keep it until it rusts to dust.
Although this is only part of my resistance. They don't yet do what I need. So at this point, I can't see the value of reducing my $80 a month gasoline bill by purchasing a $60,000 vehicle that will run on $40 a month in electricity.
If they figure out the battery shortcomings, then the EV becomes much more attractive.
OK, there are no laws of physics that they see, that could prevent the technology from being scaled up.
HOWEVER!!!
We must not forget the laws of finance nor of consumer acceptability, nor of governmental compliance.
If the new type of battery, once scaled to automotive size and entered into full mass production, is twice the cost of what we've got now, it won't be adopted. If it is twice the size of what we've got now, so cars lost most of their payload, it won't be adopted. If its manufacture in volume requires hazardous processes that can't be automated, it won't be adopted. If the sourcing of raw materials, the manufacturing process, or the end of life disposal of these batteries involves environmental contamination issues that are either insoluble or financially unfeasible to solve, it won't be adopted.
This kind of reporting based on early lab results is like reporting on the first four steps of a marathon race and claiming to predict the winner. It shows a complete lack of understanding of what is actually involved in bringing a new complex technology to market and adoption.
I was with you until you said it's irresponsible reporting and equivalent to just the first fours steps in a marathon. Yes, difficulties may arise later in the system's development, that could either delay, or ultimately derail the commercial implementation. But it's not like these reports come after the very first lab experiment. From what I can see, the real research phase at Harvard is basically done and they are moving on to development with a commercial company formed to do that. This is absolutely newsworthy, IMO.
I bought my Bolt on 2020 for $25k and was already offered $27k for it by a couple dealers.
You can't extrapolate into the future the current car market of 2021-2022. I get calls about my 3-5 year old gas powered vehicles with serious offers for over what I paid for them new.
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Originally Posted by cvetters63
It's not like buying a computer (in some ways it is, as you buy what works for you when it works for you. If you wait until the next faster/cheaper/more capable machine comes along, you'll ALWAYS be waiting). Unlike a computer, however, the car is functional for it's lifespan, which could be decades. If it works for you with 0 miles on the clock, it'll still be working pretty much the same with 300k miles on the clock.
Past performance of battery powered cars and tools do not support your speculation. What the battery powered industry needs is a standard for batteries. That is one of the major obstacles to widespread adoption currently. Range has nothing to do with it.
Well, there's going to be hydrogen in the world because massive and expensive battery-storage, for electricity generating powerplants, is only about four-hours supply. Or maybe six-hours supply with solid-state battery technology. (Four hours of expensive battery-storage for powerplants is the current California plan.)
Hydrogen for vehicles ? There's no hydrogen retail infrastructure but there are fueling locations available. Meanwhile, the electric powergrid needs massive upgrades and massive additional sources of energy. And battery chargers are likely to become smart-chargers instead of fast-chargers. The powergrid can't handle fast-charging of the entire transportation sector. And then every apartment parking space will need a smart-charger.
Well, energy is not easy and political platforms are not helping with all-rocks-in-one-basket strategies and pretense of easy solutions.
Now solid-state batteries, if successfully developed, could reduce the massive weight of electric-vehicles but only if range is limited.
Overall, these situations are early-adopter-hell
.
Hydrogen storage is much less efficient and much more expensive than flow battery technology, just now in its infancy. Organic flow batteries may eventually dominate alternative energy storage, but currently Zinc Air (ZAIRF) is only play on flow batteries of which I'm aware, and it appears close to a commercial launch.
Any other public flow battery plays to anybody's knowledge?
Plug Power and Bloom Energy are hydrogen plays, but I wonder if these new lithium metal batteries will stifle the use of hydrogen in vehicles, especially given the greater efficiency of EVs. Hydrogen may still power ships, where Bloom Energy has a partnership with a Korean shipbuilder.
You can't extrapolate into the future the current car market of 2021-2022. I get calls about my 3-5 year old gas powered vehicles with serious offers for over what I paid for them new.
The point is, this is likely to be the norm (or at least lessened depreciation will be) for many years going forward, and choosing to not buy a car NOW due to that fear is irrational on the face of it. Again, if you keep waiting for the next best thing, you'll always be waiting. Get what works for you now.
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Past performance of battery powered cars and tools do not support your speculation.
Yes, it does. Modern EV batteries are not like power tool batteries nor laptops and phones, they are thermally managed, liquid cooled/heated, and will last for 300k+ miles. Once cars reach 250-300 miles of range, it's quite useful for most drivers. The past battery powered cars that had less than 100 miles of range were NOT useful for the majority of the drivers AND at the time, the ability to fast charge on road trips was pretty much nonexistent. Making used, degrading compliance cars very nearly worthless. But look at the market for used Telsas. Real range with real charging ability makes them worth as much or more then similarly classed gas powered cars. Why? Because they are still as useful as they were new.
Your statement is like saying, "well, early Leafs with air cooled battieries could only do 110 miles and the batteries degraded fast, therefore EVs have little range and degrade fast, due to past performance of those models." It's a lie and shows a deep misunderstanding of EVs and the market.
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What the battery powered industry needs is a standard for batteries. That is one of the major obstacles to widespread adoption currently. Range has nothing to do with it.
The automotive industry doesn't have a standard for engines or transmissions, so why would a structural part of the car that rarely needs replacing need to be standardized? The only standard needed, and exists, is for the charging plugs.
NIO is offering a combination of rechargeable and swappable batteries (3 minutes). I think the batteries are relatively small and in fact you buy a service, the cheap opion permis 6 swaps per month.
And you have lifetime warranty and even a concierge, to drive you home, if you get slammed. Based on zero violations policy.
This is why you can't buy those cars in the US. This is why they will bleed your wallets dry with what they have now and costs them pennies. Then, they will do a minor improvement, call it a breakthrough, and force upon you "new and redesigned" purchases, at 150% price. Then, they will repeat that cycle in few years.
I was with you until you said it's irresponsible reporting and equivalent to just the first fours steps in a marathon. Yes, difficulties may arise later in the system's development, that could either delay, or ultimately derail the commercial implementation. But it's not like these reports come after the very first lab experiment. From what I can see, the real research phase at Harvard is basically done and they are moving on to development with a commercial company formed to do that. This is absolutely newsworthy, IMO.
Such reports are published because that's the only way to attract investors Without investors research and development cant take place. Even university research depends on government and private grands.
Yes, it does. Modern EV batteries are not like power tool batteries nor laptops and phones, they are thermally managed, liquid cooled/heated, and will last for 300k+ miles.
Let's see the statistics on how many EV batteries have reached 300k+ miles or 20 years of age. Anyone? Too soon to tell. Very few have ever driven anywhere close to that.
Whenever a doubter posts an invoice for a battery replacement for $20k the EV fans immediately dismiss it by saying that's because the battery is obsolete. That's the whole point of why people aren't buying EVs. They don't want an obsolete piece of toxic waste sitting in their driveway when the next big breakthrough comes next month and manufacturers drop current products for improved ones.
Ignored your comment on range. That's a red herring and just a convenient reason for folks that don't want to get into an argument to dismiss an EV. 300 miles is plenty of range for most drivers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvetters63
The automotive industry doesn't have a standard for engines or transmissions, so why would a structural part of the car that rarely needs replacing need to be standardized? The only standard needed, and exists, is for the charging plugs.
Individual manufacturers all standardize their major components and have plenty of spare parts to replace if their is a major failure and an engine or transmission needs replaced. Some engines have been in production for many decades and lots of spares sitting around.
You seem focused on batteries not needing replaced which is a huge mistake. EV are currently luxury items that serve as the 2nd 3rd or 4th vehicle for most buyers. They also tend to be bought by 1% ers and cared for like luxury products. What happens when they become mass market and are driven by the bottom 80% of income earners and maintained by them? Then maintenance becomes deferred, they don't get charged per the manufacturer's recommendations, etc. just like today's ICE. That will be the real test.
Let's see the statistics on how many EV batteries have reached 300k+ miles or 20 years of age. Anyone? Too soon to tell. Very few have ever driven anywhere close to that.
Whenever a doubter posts an invoice for a battery replacement for $20k the EV fans immediately dismiss it by saying that's because the battery is obsolete. That's the whole point of why people aren't buying EVs. They don't want an obsolete piece of toxic waste sitting in their driveway when the next big breakthrough comes next month and manufacturers drop current products for improved ones.
I think Battery Anxiety has replaced Range Anxiety for the last few years. And most aren't questioning if EV batteries will last 300K+, but will they last 15-20 years? Especially for those who don't drive a lot but tend to keep cars till they stop running or become too expensive to fix.
Energy is energy. The problem of "Getting it In there FAST" - is not (at the moment) only about the battery - but about the supporting electrical parts.
Moving a car takes x HP. HP = X watts. Watts means volts and current. Ya gotta move a whole lotta both simultaneously to put 300 miles worth of HP in any battery. (Forgive the mishmash of domains there.)
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That's the whole point of why people aren't buying EVs. They don't want an obsolete piece of toxic waste sitting in their driveway when the next big breakthrough comes next month and manufacturers drop current products for improved ones. 
