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I have thought the same thing. My car is 20 years old but it is far from sophisticated and cheap to run. Basically, I do not think I will be able to drive a car anymore as the older cars die off the road.
i didn't mean an old car couldn't b economical to maintain and reliable transpo. hell, i have kept my 20 year old volvo. but the writing is on the wall for it
i think you'll be able to drive an old car, but not a 30 or 40 year old car. showing it off and what not. i know here in Cali one of the main things is emissions. standards keep getting tougher and cars keep getting older. sooner or later you have a great old car (my volvo, for instance) which requires a repair so high to pass the smog check its just not plausible to fix it no matter how good the rest of the car is
You'd be surprised how rugged electronics can be, aircraft have been using them for 20-30 years, and they are operated for 8+ hours a day at high power settings (imagine cruising in your car at 6000 RPM for 90% of your time driving it)..
Can you elaborate? Aircraft (airliners) get practically completely rebuilt every few years when they go into D check. That includes electronics.
Because, Your electronics will likely go bad before you have a mechanical failure, Its just common sense.
That's not common sense... where did you hear that? Assuming solid state, sealed (packaged) electronics theoretically can last for centuries. Improper cooling, power cycling and corrosion is their only weakness.
That said when a failure does occur within a chip (or complex circuit) it will need complete replacement. That's where mechanical systems have the advantage.
I predict that today's cars will as a group last far longer than the previous generation. One of the reasons so few cars from the 70s still exist and run is rust.
A carbureted 1970s car ran like crap new. The few non-garage queen cars remaining run even worse.
My 1996 Mastercraft boat with a EFI LT1 engine is hardly used - but almost instantly starts after sitting all winter. I expect today's cars, even with ECMs, to run well decades from now if they are well cared for. I think fuel system problems and mechanical wear will be bigger problems than the main electronics. The all-in-one stereo-climate control stuff on the other hand may not make it.
You can't just go find tooling for a computer chip like you would a carburetor for instance. The amount of resources required to reproduce electronics is many orders of magnitude greater than for a mechanical component.
Where are you getting these figures from? Thousands of dollars every 10k in miles? Most of these cars aren't even out of warranty yet.
You'd be surprised how rugged electronics can be, aircraft have been using them for 20-30 years, and they are operated for 8+ hours a day at high power settings (imagine cruising in your car at 6000 RPM for 90% of your time driving it).
Electronics don't have any moving parts which reduces their wear. For example you can replace a cap/rotor every 50k miles or go 150k-200k on electronic ignition.
I was referring to the current 2010 cars twenty years from now. With all the computerized junk and ten million sensors they will be a nightmare to keep running. Here is a good example. My 1991 Ford Escort is such a simple car (no power steering, windows, AC, ETC) that it has literally cost me maybe $300 (if that) in total repairs and maintenance to keep it running for the last 3 years. However, look at this 1992 Maxima in the link below. It is the same age as my car, but was a lot more sophisticated. Here is a quote from it....
"I am the current owner of this car and have been for the last 2 1/2 years. During that time I have paid about double or triple what I paid for it due to repairs and maintenance."
1992 Nissan Maxima (http://lasvegas.craigslist.org/cto/1748862822.html - broken link)
Now this is a 1992 car. Imagine a 2010 Maxima in 2028. Remember Murphy's law....
"Anything that can go wrong will go wrong"
In other words, my Ford Escort might have 50 things that can go wrong compared with 100,000 things that can go wrong with these newer models.
I was referring to the current 2010 cars twenty years from now. With all the computerized junk and ten million sensors they will be a nightmare to keep running. Here is a good example. My 1991 Ford Escort is such a simple car (no power steering, windows, AC, ETC) that it has literally cost me maybe $300 (if that) in total repairs and maintenance to keep it running for the last 3 years. However, look at this 1992 Maxima in the link below. It is the same age as my car, but was a lot more sophisticated. Here is a quote from it....
"I am the current owner of this car and have been for the last 2 1/2 years. During that time I have paid about double or triple what I paid for it due to repairs and maintenance."
1992 Nissan Maxima (http://lasvegas.craigslist.org/cto/1748862822.html - broken link)
Now this is a 1992 car. Imagine a 2010 Maxima in 2028. Remember Murphy's law....
"Anything that can go wrong will go wrong"
In other words, my Ford Escort might have 50 things that can go wrong compared with 100,000 things that can go wrong with these newer models.
Well to be fair your particular example had the tranny replaced, which is an expensive endeavor which probably made up the bulk of the money spent. In fact of all the parts replaced the only thing that doesn't exist on your car is the power steering pump, which is hardly an expensive replacement. I'll take replacing a $100 power steering pump every 15-20 years over manual steering.
I predict that today's cars will as a group last far longer than the previous generation. One of the reasons so few cars from the 70s still exist and run is rust.
A carbureted 1970s car ran like crap new. The few non-garage queen cars remaining run even worse.
My 1996 Mastercraft boat with a EFI LT1 engine is hardly used - but almost instantly starts after sitting all winter. I expect today's cars, even with ECMs, to run well decades from now if they are well cared for. I think fuel system problems and mechanical wear will be bigger problems than the main electronics. The all-in-one stereo-climate control stuff on the other hand may not make it.
In central Texas there are 70s Ford and GM pickups all over the place which I am sure you see these all the time and it shows how solid they were built. Certain drivetrain combinations built then are extremely strong and can and will hammer out several hundred thousand miles with ease. There is no need to slam carburetors either even though far too many people don't understand how they are supposed to work. Set them up right and they will run just about as well as fuel injection.
i didn't mean an old car couldn't b economical to maintain and reliable transpo. hell, i have kept my 20 year old volvo. but the writing is on the wall for it
i think you'll be able to drive an old car, but not a 30 or 40 year old car. showing it off and what not. i know here in Cali one of the main things is emissions. standards keep getting tougher and cars keep getting older. sooner or later you have a great old car (my volvo, for instance) which requires a repair so high to pass the smog check its just not plausible to fix it no matter how good the rest of the car is
buh-bye car
In California, 1975 and older cars are smog exempt.
So it looks like my two great old Cadillacs and Plymouth will be on the road for many years.
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Remember Murphy's law....
