Kim Klacik for Congress Political Ad (Baltimore: how much, live, legal)

[The Very Man Himself]

Originally Posted by North Beach Person

Are they, or is that just more imaginings?

Bottom line on this is that Republicans are accused of not being inclusive and then, when a minority candidate appears as a Republican, that candidate is pilloried by Democrats as a token.

It happens in state after state across the US.

Not imagined. I pay zero attention to Klacik and even less to Trump's tweets. It is reported in Politico.

[North Beach Person]

Originally Posted by The Very Man Himself

Not imagined. I pay zero attention to Klacik and even less to Trump's tweets. It is reported in Politico.

But no link.

Yeah, a closed mind is a terrible thing to waste.

What are "tweets"?

[The Very Man Himself]

Originally Posted by North Beach Person

But no link.

Yeah, a closed mind is a terrible thing to waste.

What are "tweets"?

I didn't want to pollute the thread with off topic stuff.
Here's the link, you'll have to wade through the off topic stuff to find it.

https://www.politico.com/playbook

Sometimes an S at the end of a word signals plural.

[westsideboy]

Originally Posted by The Very Man Himself

I didn't want to pollute the thread with off topic stuff.
Here's the link, you'll have to wade through the off topic stuff to find it.

https://www.politico.com/playbook

Sometimes an S at the end of a word signals plural.

It's not about Klacik, or any other black GOPer winning a seat outright, the point of promoting these candidates through social media and the convention is to try and capture about 20-25% of the black vote nationwide for all GOP candidates.

The GOP thinks they have found a wedge issue among black voters with the riots and "defund the police" in general. Polls are divided on whether this is working, but a few recent high quality ones (Emerson) show roughly this split, which is big if true.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenew...ty-conventions

[The Very Man Himself]

Originally Posted by westsideboy

It's not about Klacik, or any other black GOPer winning a seat outright, the point of promoting these candidates through social media and the convention is to try and capture about 20-25% of the black vote nationwide for all GOP candidates.

The GOP thinks they have found a wedge issue among black voters with the riots and "defund the police" in general. Polls are divided on whether this is working, but a few recent high quality ones (Emerson) show roughly this split, which is big if true.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenew...ty-conventions

Good luck with that.....a 20% share would be a 250% increase*on 2016.Then I*guess the*Rs complaining*to Politico didn't get the memo.

I'll grant you that Emerson is a top quality outfit, but they are very much an outlier here, along with Zogby, not great company to be in.I'll also grant you that there is a sizeable portion of the black community that is conservative, but I think Trump will be lucky to get 6% this time. Nobody believes defund the police is realistic. GOP is throwing good money after bad on that one.

[westsideboy]

Originally Posted by The Very Man Himself

Good luck with that.....a 20% share would be a 250% increase*on 2016.Then I*guess the*Rs complaining*to Politico didn't get the memo.

I'll grant you that Emerson is a top quality outfit, but they are very much an outlier here, along with Zogby, not great company to be in.I'll also grant you that there is a sizeable portion of the black community that is conservative, but I think Trump will be lucky to get 6% this time. Nobody believes defund the police is realistic. GOP is throwing good money after bad on that one.

I couldn't get the link to open, but if they are running for the House, they are low on the "wish list" right now, the GOP would be happy to defend either the White House or the Senate.

I wouldn't write off those two data points so quickly. The polls are tightening in key states, the betting markets are close to 50/50, Biden left his basement to denounce rioters with some force. The campaigns have better data than we do, and both Trump and Biden are behaving as though a good many black voters are in play. I would assume this means at minimum that Biden doesn't want a repeat of 2016 when seemingly safe DEM voters ended up voting red.

[The Very Man Himself]

Originally Posted by westsideboy

I couldn't get the link to open, but if they are running for the House, they are low on the "wish list" right now, the GOP would be happy to defend either the White House or the Senate.

I wouldn't write off those two data points so quickly. The polls are tightening in key states, the betting markets are close to 50/50, Biden left his basement to denounce rioters with some force. The campaigns have better data than we do, and both Trump and Biden are behaving as though a good many black voters are in play. I would assume this means at minimum that Biden doesn't want a repeat of 2016 when seemingly safe DEM voters ended up voting red.

The polls always tighten after Labor Day.
I take your point about the betting markets, but they likely account for a much smaller sample number of individuals than the combined polling numbers. They are a small percentage of the overall betting market.

538 has posted 120 national polls just since 08/15/20, Biden is ahead in every one, 3-15 points. Remember, in 2016 the national polls were correct, it was a few state polls that were wrong.*Biden is ahead in all the battleground states except Ohio, and he's competitive, less than 2 points behind in Tx & Ga.

[westsideboy]

Originally Posted by The Very Man Himself

The polls always tighten after Labor Day.
I take your point about the betting markets, but they likely account for a much smaller sample number of individuals than the combined polling numbers. They are a small percentage of the overall betting market.

538 has posted 120 national polls just since 08/15/20, Biden is ahead in every one, 3-15 points. Remember, in 2016 the national polls were correct, it was a few state polls that were wrong.*Biden is ahead in all the battleground states except Ohio, and he's competitive, less than 2 points behind in Tx & Ga.

The betting markets look at polls + trends. If the bettor doesn't catch the trend on the way up, there is no money to be made. There is a growing perception that Trump is catching up, and Biden is fading. Part of it is tightening polls, especially in the rust belt, but also the general drop in popularity of #BLM among white voters, and these polls that show Trump doing better than expected among minority voters. 538 has some articles pointing out how these betting trends could be wrong.

Here is the rub. Biden +3 = slightly behind in the EC odds. The Dems can't afford to lose those black votes in swing states. They have to take those polls seriously and are already pivoting from bailing arrested protestors out of jail and minimizing the rioting to openly speaking out and condemning the violence. Watching how the campaigns react to conflicting data is a window into what their own polling is saying.

I think Biden is ahead and would win if the election was held today, but his advantage is more tenuous than it was a month ago.

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
·
3h
Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points:

0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22%
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%

[The Very Man Himself]

Originally Posted by westsideboy

The betting markets look at polls + trends. If the bettor doesn't catch the trend on the way up, there is no money to be made. There is a growing perception that Trump is catching up, and Biden is fading. Part of it is tightening polls, especially in the rust belt, but also the general drop in popularity of #BLM among white voters, and these polls that show Trump doing better than expected among minority voters. 538 has some articles pointing out how these betting trends could be wrong.

Here is the rub. Biden +3 = slightly behind in the EC odds. The Dems can't afford to lose those black votes in swing states. They have to take those polls seriously and are already pivoting from bailing arrested protestors out of jail and minimizing the rioting to openly speaking out and condemning the violence. Watching how the campaigns react to conflicting data is a window into what their own polling is saying.

I think Biden is ahead and would win if the election was held today, but his advantage is more tenuous than it was a month ago.

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
·
3h
Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points:

0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22%
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%

538 added 11 national polls so far today that average to 7.6 for Biden, so he has a little room to fall. He raised $300M in August, and is spending in states like Tx & Ga, that typically would not be on the D agenda. Seems neither B or T got much of a bounce from the conventions.

[BMoreJuice]

So she is going to skip 100 years of Baltimore history?