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All-Star first baseman Albert Pujols has rejected a contract proposal from the St. Louis Cardinals, and unless a dramatic change is made, will announce Tuesday he's ceasing contract talks for the duration of the season, a person close to Pujols told USA TODAY.
2010 Team Payrolls
No. Team Payroll
1. New York Yankees $206,333,389
2. Boston Red Sox $162,747,333
3. Chicago Cubs $146,859,000
4. Philadelphia Phillies $141,927,381
5. New York Mets $132,701,445
6. Detroit Tigers $122,864,929
7. Chicago White Sox $108,273,197
8. Los Angeles Angels $105,013,667 MLB Salaries - CBSSports.com
Among the the teams which support team salaries over 100 million a season, the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Phillies, the Tigers and the White Sox have all signed costly firstbasemen to deals which run past Pujol's impending free agency. The Mets are experiencing a financial crisis and the uncertainty arising from the massive fraud lawsuit that they face, probably eliminates their ability to offer a ten year 300 million buck deal. (Besides, has any club ever had worse luck with high profile, costly free agents?) And Sandy Alderson is no fool.
That leaves the Cubs and the Angels as possible buyers. The Angels have Kendry Morales who is currently a great bargain at 1.2 million. That leaves the Cubs, who are currently renting Carlos Pena for one season at ten million. That certainly hints that they are not ill disposed to overspending for firstsackers.
The Cardinals are currently at 93.5 million, 16 million of which is already going to Albert. So, paying him 30 million a year would actually raise them to 107.5 million. They are better positioned to take on the immense contract than any other club, yet whatever they offered, Albert didn't feel it was enough, or not long enough.
Pujols is 31 years old and if anyone does sign him for ten years, they will be killed by the back end of the contract when they will be paying Albert the sort of money his current performance justifies, but his age 37-41 seasons almost certainly won't.
The Arod 2000 ten year contract was formulated at the height of the steroid era where it was seeming like ballplayers had found a fountain of youth and could continue to deliver prime performances after the age of 35. Arod, sans steroids, is now demonstrating that this just isn't the case.
I think that everyone has noticed this, and I'm doubtful that anyone will offer him a mega deal for ten years.
I think that everyone has noticed this, and I'm doubtful that anyone will offer him a mega deal for ten years.
Must be what the Cardinals are thinking...
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1. New York Yankees $206,333,389
3B/DH A-Rod signed through 2017 at about $25 million a year
1B/DH Texiera signed through 2016 at $22.5 million a year
Unless the Yankees would move Tex or Pujols to DH there's no room for Pujols. As A-Rod ages he'll be less likely to be able to play 3rd and will likely have to move to 1B or DH. Never count the Yankees out though, as they have gobs of $ and can always pay part of Tex's salary to have him play somewhere else.
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2. Boston Red Sox $162,747,333
DH Ortiz signed through 2011 at $12.5 million
3B/1B/DH Youkilis signed through 2012 at $12 million plus an option for 2013
1B/DH Adrian Gonzales signed through 2011 at $5.5 million. But has likely agreed to an unannounced extension worth $20+ million for 5+ years.
Similar situation as the Yankees. Though Ortiz could be gone after this season, and Youk after 2012, they have a 1B locked up long-term and would be unlikely to move Gonzalez or Pujols to DH
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3. Chicago Cubs $146,859,000
LF Soriano signed through 2014 at $18 million
3B Ramirez signed through 2011 at $14.6 million and a 2012 option for $16 million
RF Fukudome signed through 2011 at $13.5 million
1B Pena signed through 2011 at $10.5 million
As you mentioned the Cubs have their 1B, Pena, leaving after the season. They also have some big contracts (Fukudome and Ramirez) expiring. I'd imagine they'd love to take Pujols away from their rivals. They also would seem to have the means. They'll have to do something with Soriano for the next 3 years though...
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4. Philadelphia Phillies $141,927,381
1B Howard signed through 2016 at $25 million a year plus an option for 2017 at $23 million.
The Phils have an inferior 1B locked up. Not much chance to sign Pujols or trade Howard.
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5. New York Mets $132,701,445
3B Wright signed through 2012 at $15 million
1B Ike Davis has less than 1 year of service time
Expiring after 2011: Beltran $18.5, K-Rod $12.5 million, Ollie Perez $12 million, Jose Reyes $11 million, Castillo $6 million
The Mets would be in a perfect situation to sign Pujols, lots of expiring contracts, if it weren't for the Wilpon/Madoff mess.
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6. Detroit Tigers $122,864,929
1B/DH Cabrera signed through 2015 at $20+ million
C/DH V-Mart signed through 2014 at $12 million
Detroit could have been a dark-horse to sign Pujols had they not signed V-Mart. However, Martinez probably can't catch enough to allow Pujols and Cabrera to play 1B and DH.
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7. Chicago White Sox $108,273,197
1B/DH Adam Dunn signed through 2014 at $12-$15 a year
DH/1B Paul Konerko signed through 2013 at $13 million a year
Don't count the Sox out. Williams is a gun slinger at GM and has pulled of some interesting trades in his past. Dunn could have value in a trade.
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8. Los Angeles Angels $105,013,667
OF Wells signed through 2014 at $21 million a year
OF Hunter signed through 2012 at $18 million a year
OF Abreu signed through 2011 at $9 million a year plus an option for 2012
1B Morales eligible for arbitration in 2012 and 2013.
The Angels have some big contracts to contend with plus a young 1B who had an outstanding 2009 before suffering a ridiculous injury in 2010 (Kendry's walk-off slam comes with injury | MLB.com: News).
A definite possibility to go after Pujols. They can use this season to see how Morales recovers. If he does recover, they can trade him or use him as a DH. If he doesn't they can release him without any monetary penalty. If Pujols becomes a free agent, the Angels will be involved.
You left the Dodgers off the list. They are having some financial issues as well, but I wouldn't count them totally out. For a few months of 2008 and part of 2009 it was Mannywood. While Manny is more charismatic than Pujols, Pujols would bring some star power to LA, and LA loves stars.
If McCourt was forced to sell (http://www.fwitter.co.uk/wp-content/...erscrossed.jpg) having Pujols aboard could help. The Dodgers don't have many long term contracts (Lilly and Uribe for 3 years as well as owing Andruw Jones and Manny deferred money for the next few years) so a team with the best player in baseball and some financial flexibility could be attractive for someone looking to buy.
3B Wright signed through 2012 at $15 million
1B Ike Davis has less than 1 year of service time
Expiring after 2011: Beltran $18.5, K-Rod $12.5 million, Ollie Perez $12 million, Jose Reyes $11 million, Castillo $6 million
The Mets would be in a perfect situation to sign Pujols, lots of expiring contracts, if it weren't for the Wilpon/Madoff mess.
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Excellent analysis, as always. A note about the K-Rod contract. It is structured so that if K-Rod finishes 55 games in 2011, the option for 2012 (17.5 million) is automatically invoked. In that it would seem undesirable for the Mets to be paying 17.5 million for the final year of K-Rod's services, it will be interesting to see how the club handles his appearances. If he is healthy, isn't in jail for punching out grandfathers, and New York is in the pennant race, the Mets will be hard pressed not to use him as they normally would. On the other hand, if the Mets have fallen from realistic contention by the end of August, it will be tremendously tempting to control K-Rod's appearances to make sure that the option clause does not materialize.
Before Alderson took over, my attitude would have been..."This is the Mets, however the handle it, it will blow up in their faces." I have great respect for Alderson's smarts, so he may figure a way out of the problem.
Albert Pujols and the St. Louis Cardinals have agreed to a noon ET Wednesday deadline for contract extension talks, general manager John Mozeliak said.
A note about the K-Rod contract. It is structured so that if K-Rod finishes 55 games in 2011, the option for 2012 (17.5 million) is automatically invoked. In that it would seem undesirable for the Mets to be paying 17.5 million for the final year of K-Rod's services, it will be interesting to see how the club handles his appearances. If he is healthy, isn't in jail for punching out grandfathers, and New York is in the pennant race, the Mets will be hard pressed not to use him as they normally would. On the other hand, if the Mets have fallen from realistic contention by the end of August, it will be tremendously tempting to control K-Rod's appearances to make sure that the option clause does not materialize.
The Mets won't be in the pennant race. If K-Rod'll be healthy or punching out fathers-in-law, I won't dare to speculate.
I am pretty sure that the Mets will not want that clause to kick in. However, they might not be able to get around it.
A similar situation with Magglio Ordonez and the Tigers occured in 2009 when Mags was guaranteed an $18 million salary in 2010 if he had 450ish plate appearances in 2009. Mags got the PA's and the $18 mil but it would have been interesting to see how things had played out had the Tigers benched him.
"Francisco?"
"Yes, Sandy?"
"I have some really good news for you."
"Oh? What's that?"
"We've decided to make you a starter, you join the rotation tomorrow!"
1) The DBacks signed 1B Russ Branyan to a minor league deal. Really good move for the DBacks.
Branyan has been worth 1.2, 2.9 and 2.0 WAR the last 3 seasons whiling averaging:
92 games, 313 AB, 77 hits, 16 2B, 0 3B, 23 HR, 52 RBI, 41 BB, 107 K, .245 BA, .337 OBP, .514 SLG
Using these criteria (For single seasons, For 2010, (requiring AB>=300, onbase_perc>=.320, slugging_perc>=.500 and slugging_perc<=.575), sorted by greatest Home Runs)
Other players who had similar seasons last year to what Branyan has averaged the last 3 were:
Ryan Braun, David Wright and A-Rod.
Sure, those guys are likely to play a lot more often than Branyan, but having A-Rod in your line up for half the season and only having to sign him to a minor league deal instead of $27.5 million is a pretty good deal.
2) The Blue Jays signed Jose "Joey Bats" Bautista for 5 years and $65 million.
FanGraphs can do the math better than I can
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At $65 million over five years, we essentially come up with the following expectation:
2011 – +3.4 WAR, $5 million per win, $17.5 million value
2012 – +2.9 WAR, $5.25M $/win, $15.23 million value
2013 – +2.4 WAR, $5.51M $/win, $13.23 million value
2014 – +1.9 WAR, $5.69M $/win, $11.00 million value
2015 – +1.4 WAR, $6.08M $/win, $8.51 million value
Total: +12 WAR, $64.96 million value
I get why Toronto made this deal. I think there’s a pretty decent chance he lives up to the contract, even if he’ll likely be perceived as a bust for not repeating his 2010 line each year going forward. However, for me, I’m not sure Toronto got enough of a discount on his expected free agent price to absorb the extra risk of doing this deal now. If my option was take this deal now or let him play out 2011 and re-evaluate at the end of the year, I think I would have waited.
I disagree with their conclusion though. I think Bautista is the real deal. I won't be the least bit surprised if we out performs that contract substantially.
230 innings pitched last year too. That's a lot of innings to fill. Tough break for him and the Cards.
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