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To take Howard, for example
Last year:
Werth hit 28 home runs
Howard hit 31 home runs
Werth made an out 61.2% of the time
Howard made an out 64.7% of the time
A player with nearly the same power who makes less outs is a better hitter.
*Yes, there are some plate appearance issues between Werth and Howard, but better to start with simple analysis than bust out the wOBA and be dismissed out of hand
Werth is obviously a better defender and better base runner.
I'd still take Howard on my team any day of the week. Let's not forget this big stat...Werth hit .186 with RISP. Howard hit .275.
Defense is apples and oranges. Howard plays a more than adequate 1b.
Werth is obviously a better defender and better base runner.
I agree with the above for the age 31 Werth. The Nats have him locked up for ages 32 through 38 and it would seem doubtful that Werth will be worth 18 million dollars a year as a defender and baserunner after the age of 35.
Do you know if anyone has ever done a major survey comparing the value produced to the salaries paid to star free agents who sign long term deals after the age of 30?
Defense is apples and oranges. Howard plays a more than adequate 1b.
Maybe. But the number of players who are capable of playing an adequate first base is much lower than the number of players who can play an above average RF-adding to Werth's value.
Even if it was because of blind greed, it's still nice to see someone sign with a team other than NYY, BOS etc.
I knew he wasn't going to the Yankees but there was a chance for the Red sox, so I was happy when I heard Washington.
The only thing is that he showed his true colors. If he went to a team like the White Sox, than I would have said that they were building for a championship but to the Nats, it was obviously only about the money.
Well, if we estimate his current value as about a +4.5 win player (slight drop-off from his prior three years due to age) and the price for a win at about $5 million this winter, using the same 5% annual inflation assumption/guess that we employed with Adrian Gonzalez yesterday and 0.5 WAR decrease per year for aging, we’d get his value over the next seven years to be $118 million – a little less than what he actually got. In order to get to the $126 million figure, we’d have to bump annual inflation up to almost 8 percent per year. That’s a very optimistic projection for where the market is headed, but it also reflects the fact that the Nationals had to outbid other teams in order to get Werth to play for a team not expected to win for a couple of years. While it is significantly more than he was originally expected to get, it is not the drastic overpay that it appears to be on the surface.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander
Do you know if anyone has ever done a major survey comparing the value produced to the salaries paid to star free agents who sign long term deals after the age of 30?
The best comment came from Mets GM Sandy Alderson:
“I thought they were trying to reduce the deficit in Washington?”
Funny
One of the other things not discussed on Werth is that i believe he has led the NL and/or MLB in each of thr last three years for most pitches per plate appearance - this factors in in getting to the bullpen...
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